For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 59.940 and eloDraw = 372.378 based on Season 20 Superfinal games

Pos Name 1. 2. 3.
1. LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 61.642% 24.591% 13.767%
2. KomodoDragon 2774.00 21.436% 47.819% 30.745%
3. Stockfish 14_202108051641 16.922% 27.590% 55.488%

Speculate Stockfish 14_202108051641 – LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 1-0

eloAdvantage = 59.940 and eloDraw = 372.378 based on Season 20 Superfinal games

Pos Name 1. 2. 3.
1. Stockfish 14_202108051641 40.350% 32.371% 27.279%
2. LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 30.703% 35.731% 33.566%
3. KomodoDragon 2774.00 28.947% 31.898% 39.155%

Speculate Stockfish 14_202108051641 – LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 59.940 and eloDraw = 372.378 based on Season 20 Superfinal games

Pos Name 1. 2. 3.
1. LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 65.606% 23.502% 10.892%
2. KomodoDragon 2774.00 21.318% 49.502% 29.180%
3. Stockfish 14_202108051641 13.076% 26.996% 59.928%

Speculate Stockfish 14_202108051641 – LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 0-1

eloAdvantage = 59.940 and eloDraw = 372.378 based on Season 20 Superfinal games

Pos Name 1. 2. 3.
1. LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 84.809% 13.345% 1.846%
2. KomodoDragon 2774.00 12.898% 68.369% 18.733%
3. Stockfish 14_202108051641 2.293% 18.286% 79.421%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2
1 LCZero 0.27.0-pr1540ish-w_68653/0.28.0-rc1_69146/0.28-dev+_69626/0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 1.0 4.38 1.14 1.75 47 30
2 Stockfish 2021061923/14_202107131735/14_202108051641 0.0 3.84 1.14 2.09 29 33
3 KomodoDragon 2747.00/2762.02/2774.00 1.0 3.78 1.05 2.16 24 36

Expected start time based on estimate of 14.50h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2021-08-15 07:29 4 Stockfish 14_202108051641 KomodoDragon 2774.00
2021-08-15 21:59 5 KomodoDragon 2774.00 LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2
2021-08-16 12:28 6 LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 Stockfish 14_202108051641
2021-08-17 02:58 7 KomodoDragon 2774.00 Stockfish 14_202108051641
2021-08-17 17:28 8 LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 KomodoDragon 2774.00
2021-08-18 07:58 9 Stockfish 14_202108051641 LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2
2021-08-18 22:28 10 Stockfish 14_202108051641 KomodoDragon 2774.00
2021-08-19 12:57 11 KomodoDragon 2774.00 LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2
2021-08-20 03:27 12 LCZero 0.28-dev+_69722-vf2 Stockfish 14_202108051641