For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 68.931 and eloDraw = 250.999 updated on 2022-02-06 based on Season 21 and 22 games
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | 9-12. | 9. | 10. | 11. | 12. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Koivisto 7.13 | 79.858% | 12.436% | 92.294% | 4.198% | 1.905% | 0.820% | 0.446% | 0.204% | 0.087% | 0.046% | 0.029% | 0.016% | 0.001% | ||||||
| 2. | Seer 20211203 | 4.844% | 18.125% | 22.969% | 16.953% | 14.453% | 12.547% | 10.282% | 8.191% | 6.126% | 8.479% | 4.223% | 2.562% | 1.294% | 0.400% | |||||
| 3. | Berserk 9-dev4 | 4.577% | 18.374% | 22.951% | 16.824% | 14.848% | 12.649% | 10.322% | 8.116% | 5.911% | 8.379% | 4.150% | 2.486% | 1.318% | 0.425% | |||||
| 4. | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | 3.434% | 14.446% | 17.880% | 15.144% | 14.339% | 12.956% | 11.196% | 9.436% | 7.538% | 11.511% | 5.409% | 3.560% | 1.835% | 0.707% | |||||
| 5. | Wasp 5.25 | 2.702% | 12.463% | 15.165% | 13.823% | 13.694% | 12.952% | 11.879% | 10.090% | 8.297% | 14.100% | 6.286% | 4.392% | 2.462% | 0.960% | |||||
| 6. | Bit-Genie 9.23 | 2.787% | 12.078% | 14.865% | 13.459% | 13.295% | 12.650% | 11.665% | 10.390% | 8.539% | 15.137% | 6.830% | 4.578% | 2.652% | 1.077% | |||||
| 7. | Weiss 2.1-dev | 0.861% | 4.868% | 5.729% | 7.201% | 9.212% | 10.734% | 11.898% | 12.632% | 12.617% | 29.977% | 11.561% | 9.165% | 6.345% | 2.906% | |||||
| 8. | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | 0.420% | 2.974% | 3.394% | 4.847% | 6.809% | 8.661% | 10.548% | 12.245% | 13.806% | 39.690% | 13.977% | 12.831% | 9.093% | 3.789% | |||||
| 9. | Tucano 10 | 0.420% | 3.023% | 3.443% | 4.821% | 6.626% | 8.412% | 10.272% | 11.993% | 13.214% | 41.219% | 13.539% | 12.353% | 9.983% | 5.344% | |||||
| 10. | Drofa 3.3.0 | 0.076% | 0.804% | 0.880% | 1.731% | 2.887% | 4.358% | 6.341% | 8.834% | 11.835% | 63.134% | 15.229% | 18.927% | 18.614% | 10.364% | |||||
| 11. | Topple 0.8.1 | 0.014% | 0.339% | 0.353% | 0.831% | 1.546% | 2.559% | 3.901% | 5.760% | 8.506% | 76.544% | 12.503% | 17.704% | 24.221% | 22.116% | |||||
| 12. | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | 0.007% | 0.070% | 0.077% | 0.168% | 0.386% | 0.702% | 1.250% | 2.109% | 3.524% | 91.784% | 6.264% | 11.426% | 22.182% | 51.912% |
Top promotions
| Pos | 1. | 2. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Koivisto 7.13 | Berserk 9-dev4 | 16.898% |
| 2. | Koivisto 7.13 | Seer 20211203 | 16.698% |
| 3. | Koivisto 7.13 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | 13.175% |
| 4. | Koivisto 7.13 | Wasp 5.25 | 11.341% |
| 5. | Koivisto 7.13 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | 10.953% |
| 6. | Koivisto 7.13 | Weiss 2.1-dev | 4.368% |
| 7. | Seer 20211203 | Koivisto 7.13 | 3.079% |
| 8. | Berserk 9-dev4 | Koivisto 7.13 | 2.924% |
| 9. | Koivisto 7.13 | Tucano 10 | 2.669% |
| 10. | Koivisto 7.13 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | 2.661% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. | Berserk 9-dev4 | Koivisto 7.13 | 19.822% |
| 2. | Koivisto 7.13 | Seer 20211203 | 19.777% |
| 3. | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Koivisto 7.13 | 15.304% |
| 4. | Koivisto 7.13 | Wasp 5.25 | 12.942% |
| 5. | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Koivisto 7.13 | 12.673% |
| 6. | Koivisto 7.13 | Weiss 2.1-dev | 4.827% |
| 7. | Koivisto 7.13 | Tucano 10 | 2.911% |
| 8. | Koivisto 7.13 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | 2.888% |
| 9. | Berserk 9-dev4 | Seer 20211203 | 0.896% |
| 10. | Drofa 3.3.0 | Koivisto 7.13 | 0.757% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 0.96h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC | No | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-11 15:48 | 10 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-11 16:46 | 11 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-11 17:44 | 12 | Seer 20211203 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-11 18:41 | 13 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-11 19:39 | 14 | Wasp 5.25 | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-11 20:36 | 15 | Tucano 10 | Bit-Genie 9.23 |
| 2022-02-11 21:34 | 16 | Koivisto 7.13 | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-11 22:31 | 17 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-11 23:29 | 18 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-12 00:26 | 19 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-12 01:24 | 20 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 |
| 2022-02-12 02:21 | 21 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-12 03:19 | 22 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-12 04:16 | 23 | Seer 20211203 | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-12 05:14 | 24 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-12 06:11 | 25 | Wasp 5.25 | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-12 07:09 | 26 | Tucano 10 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-12 08:06 | 27 | Koivisto 7.13 | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-12 09:04 | 28 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Bit-Genie 9.23 |
| 2022-02-12 10:01 | 29 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-12 10:59 | 30 | Topple 0.8.1 | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-12 11:57 | 31 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-12 12:54 | 32 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-12 13:52 | 33 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 |
| 2022-02-12 14:49 | 34 | Seer 20211203 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-12 15:47 | 35 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-12 16:44 | 36 | Wasp 5.25 | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-12 17:42 | 37 | Tucano 10 | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-12 18:39 | 38 | Koivisto 7.13 | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-12 19:37 | 39 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-12 20:34 | 40 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-12 21:32 | 41 | Topple 0.8.1 | Bit-Genie 9.23 |
| 2022-02-12 22:29 | 42 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-12 23:27 | 43 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-13 00:24 | 44 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-13 01:22 | 45 | Seer 20211203 | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-13 02:19 | 46 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Pirarucu 3.3.5 |
| 2022-02-13 03:17 | 47 | Wasp 5.25 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-13 04:15 | 48 | Tucano 10 | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-13 05:12 | 49 | Koivisto 7.13 | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-13 06:10 | 50 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-13 07:07 | 51 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-13 08:05 | 52 | Topple 0.8.1 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-13 09:02 | 53 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-13 10:00 | 54 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Bit-Genie 9.23 |
| 2022-02-13 10:57 | 55 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Bit-Genie 9.23 |
| 2022-02-13 11:55 | 56 | Seer 20211203 | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-13 12:52 | 57 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-13 13:50 | 58 | Wasp 5.25 | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-13 14:47 | 59 | Tucano 10 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 |
| 2022-02-13 15:45 | 60 | Koivisto 7.13 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-13 16:42 | 61 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-13 17:40 | 62 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-13 18:37 | 63 | Topple 0.8.1 | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-13 19:35 | 64 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-13 20:32 | 65 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-13 21:30 | 66 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-13 22:28 | 67 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-13 23:25 | 68 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-14 00:23 | 69 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-14 01:20 | 70 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-14 02:18 | 71 | Topple 0.8.1 | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-14 03:15 | 72 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-14 04:13 | 73 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-14 05:10 | 74 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-14 06:08 | 75 | Koivisto 7.13 | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-14 07:05 | 76 | Tucano 10 | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-14 08:03 | 77 | Wasp 5.25 | Bit-Genie 9.23 |
| 2022-02-14 09:00 | 78 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-14 09:58 | 79 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-14 10:55 | 80 | Seer 20211203 | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-14 11:53 | 81 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-14 12:50 | 82 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-14 13:48 | 83 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-14 14:45 | 84 | Topple 0.8.1 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 |
| 2022-02-14 15:43 | 85 | Topple 0.8.1 | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-14 16:41 | 86 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-14 17:38 | 87 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-14 18:36 | 88 | Koivisto 7.13 | Bit-Genie 9.23 |
| 2022-02-14 19:33 | 89 | Tucano 10 | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-14 20:31 | 90 | Wasp 5.25 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-14 21:28 | 91 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-14 22:26 | 92 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-14 23:23 | 93 | Seer 20211203 | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-15 00:21 | 94 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-15 01:18 | 95 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Pirarucu 3.3.5 |
| 2022-02-15 02:16 | 96 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-15 03:13 | 97 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-15 04:11 | 98 | Topple 0.8.1 | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-15 05:08 | 99 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Bit-Genie 9.23 |
| 2022-02-15 06:06 | 100 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-15 07:03 | 101 | Koivisto 7.13 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-15 08:01 | 102 | Tucano 10 | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-15 08:59 | 103 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-15 09:56 | 104 | Wasp 5.25 | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-15 10:54 | 105 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-15 11:51 | 106 | Seer 20211203 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 |
| 2022-02-15 12:49 | 107 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-15 13:46 | 108 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-15 14:44 | 109 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-15 15:41 | 110 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Bit-Genie 9.23 |
| 2022-02-15 16:39 | 111 | Topple 0.8.1 | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-15 17:36 | 112 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-15 18:34 | 113 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-15 19:31 | 114 | Koivisto 7.13 | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-15 20:29 | 115 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-15 21:26 | 116 | Tucano 10 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-15 22:24 | 117 | Wasp 5.25 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 |
| 2022-02-15 23:21 | 118 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-16 00:19 | 119 | Seer 20211203 | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-16 01:16 | 120 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-16 02:14 | 121 | Bit-Genie 9.23 | Drofa 3.3.0 |
| 2022-02-16 03:12 | 122 | Weiss 2.1-dev | Seer 20211203 |
| 2022-02-16 04:09 | 123 | Berserk 9-dev4 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e |
| 2022-02-16 05:07 | 124 | Topple 0.8.1 | Wasp 5.25 |
| 2022-02-16 06:04 | 125 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 | Tucano 10 |
| 2022-02-16 07:02 | 126 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 | Koivisto 7.13 |
| 2022-02-16 07:59 | 127 | Drofa 3.3.0 | Marvin 6.0.0-a2 |
| 2022-02-16 08:57 | 128 | Koivisto 7.13 | Pirarucu 3.3.5 |
| 2022-02-16 09:54 | 129 | Tucano 10 | Topple 0.8.1 |
| 2022-02-16 10:52 | 130 | Wasp 5.25 | Berserk 9-dev4 |
| 2022-02-16 11:49 | 131 | Arasan v23.2.0-21-5db490e | Weiss 2.1-dev |
| 2022-02-16 12:47 | 132 | Seer 20211203 | Bit-Genie 9.23 |