For
standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see
previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 68.931 and eloDraw = 250.999 updated on 2022-02-06 based on Season 21 and 22 games
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
7-8. |
|
7. |
8. |
| 1. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
|
95.361% |
4.200% |
|
99.561% |
|
0.410% |
0.027% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Minic 3.18 |
|
3.672% |
60.686% |
|
64.358% |
|
26.477% |
7.150% |
1.755% |
0.232% |
|
0.028% |
|
0.023% |
0.005% |
| 3. |
Seer 20220130 |
|
0.878% |
27.099% |
|
27.977% |
|
43.020% |
18.889% |
7.679% |
1.965% |
|
0.470% |
|
0.416% |
0.054% |
| 4. |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
|
0.067% |
5.334% |
|
5.401% |
|
17.122% |
36.502% |
27.064% |
9.924% |
|
3.987% |
|
3.374% |
0.613% |
| 5. |
Halogen 10.22 |
|
0.022% |
2.506% |
|
2.528% |
|
11.217% |
28.340% |
34.240% |
15.656% |
|
8.019% |
|
6.059% |
1.960% |
| 6. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
|
|
0.116% |
|
0.116% |
|
1.103% |
5.063% |
15.586% |
34.991% |
|
43.141% |
|
28.692% |
14.449% |
| 7. |
Winter 0.9.8 |
|
|
0.047% |
|
0.047% |
|
0.519% |
3.080% |
9.359% |
25.093% |
|
61.902% |
|
35.863% |
26.039% |
| 8. |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
|
|
0.012% |
|
0.012% |
|
0.132% |
0.949% |
4.315% |
12.139% |
|
82.453% |
|
25.573% |
56.880% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Minic 3.18 |
60.542% |
| 2. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Seer 20220130 |
26.862% |
| 3. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
5.301% |
| 4. |
Minic 3.18 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
3.394% |
| 5. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Halogen 10.22 |
2.481% |
| 6. |
Seer 20220130 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
0.730% |
| 7. |
Minic 3.18 |
Seer 20220130 |
0.233% |
| 8. |
Seer 20220130 |
Minic 3.18 |
0.136% |
| 9. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
0.116% |
| 10. |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
Koivisto 7.14 |
0.056% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Minic 3.18 |
63.936% |
| 2. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Seer 20220130 |
27.592% |
| 3. |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
Koivisto 7.14 |
5.357% |
| 4. |
Halogen 10.22 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
2.501% |
| 5. |
Minic 3.18 |
Seer 20220130 |
0.369% |
| 6. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
0.116% |
| 7. |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
0.047% |
| 8. |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
Minic 3.18 |
0.033% |
| 9. |
Halogen 10.22 |
Minic 3.18 |
0.020% |
| 10. |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
0.012% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.05h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
| 2022-02-22 10:16 |
63 |
Seer 20220130 |
Halogen 10.22 |
| 2022-02-22 11:20 |
64 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
Minic 3.18 |
| 2022-02-22 12:23 |
65 |
Minic 3.18 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
| 2022-02-22 13:26 |
66 |
Halogen 10.22 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
| 2022-02-22 14:29 |
67 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Seer 20220130 |
| 2022-02-22 15:32 |
68 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
| 2022-02-22 16:35 |
69 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
Winter 0.9.8 |
| 2022-02-22 17:39 |
70 |
Seer 20220130 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
| 2022-02-22 18:42 |
71 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
| 2022-02-22 19:45 |
72 |
Minic 3.18 |
Halogen 10.22 |
| 2022-02-22 20:48 |
73 |
Halogen 10.22 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
| 2022-02-22 21:51 |
74 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Minic 3.18 |
| 2022-02-22 22:55 |
75 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
| 2022-02-22 23:58 |
76 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
Seer 20220130 |
| 2022-02-23 01:01 |
77 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
Seer 20220130 |
| 2022-02-23 02:04 |
78 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
| 2022-02-23 03:07 |
79 |
Minic 3.18 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
| 2022-02-23 04:10 |
80 |
Halogen 10.22 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
| 2022-02-23 05:14 |
81 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
| 2022-02-23 06:17 |
82 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
Halogen 10.22 |
| 2022-02-23 07:20 |
83 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
Minic 3.18 |
| 2022-02-23 08:23 |
84 |
Seer 20220130 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
| 2022-02-23 09:26 |
85 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
| 2022-02-23 10:29 |
86 |
Seer 20220130 |
Minic 3.18 |
| 2022-02-23 11:33 |
87 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
Halogen 10.22 |
| 2022-02-23 12:36 |
88 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
| 2022-02-23 13:39 |
89 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
| 2022-02-23 14:42 |
90 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
| 2022-02-23 15:45 |
91 |
Halogen 10.22 |
Seer 20220130 |
| 2022-02-23 16:48 |
92 |
Minic 3.18 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
| 2022-02-23 17:52 |
93 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
Minic 3.18 |
| 2022-02-23 18:55 |
94 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
Halogen 10.22 |
| 2022-02-23 19:58 |
95 |
Seer 20220130 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
| 2022-02-23 21:01 |
96 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
| 2022-02-23 22:04 |
97 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
| 2022-02-23 23:08 |
98 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
Seer 20220130 |
| 2022-02-24 00:11 |
99 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
| 2022-02-24 01:14 |
100 |
Halogen 10.22 |
Minic 3.18 |
| 2022-02-24 02:17 |
101 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
Halogen 10.22 |
| 2022-02-24 03:20 |
102 |
Minic 3.18 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
| 2022-02-24 04:23 |
103 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
| 2022-02-24 05:27 |
104 |
Seer 20220130 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
| 2022-02-24 06:30 |
105 |
Seer 20220130 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
| 2022-02-24 07:33 |
106 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
| 2022-02-24 08:36 |
107 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
Minic 3.18 |
| 2022-02-24 09:39 |
108 |
Koivisto 7.14 |
Halogen 10.22 |
| 2022-02-24 10:42 |
109 |
Fritz 18_NNUE_beta |
Koivisto 7.14 |
| 2022-02-24 11:46 |
110 |
Halogen 10.22 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
| 2022-02-24 12:49 |
111 |
Minic 3.18 |
Winter 0.9.8 |
| 2022-02-24 13:52 |
112 |
ClassicAra 0.9.9 |
Seer 20220130 |