For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Berserk dev10_20220905 49.149% 28.599% 77.748% 11.570% 5.585% 2.805% 1.374% 0.583% 0.253% 0.082% 0.072% 0.010%
2. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE 35.608% 30.530% 66.138% 15.220% 8.361% 4.945% 2.831% 1.488% 0.734% 0.283% 0.226% 0.051% 0.006%
3. RubiChess 20220902 5.067% 11.369% 16.436% 17.632% 16.911% 15.185% 12.594% 9.998% 6.731% 4.513% 3.090% 1.200% 0.203% 0.020%
4. Koivisto 8.13 4.261% 11.200% 15.461% 18.157% 18.076% 15.889% 12.840% 9.488% 6.122% 3.967% 2.876% 0.933% 0.148% 0.010%
5. Revenge 20220816 1.973% 5.845% 7.818% 11.263% 14.415% 15.559% 16.009% 14.801% 11.071% 9.064% 5.936% 2.527% 0.553% 0.048%
6. Minic 3.30 1.630% 4.982% 6.612% 10.202% 13.953% 15.886% 16.660% 15.478% 11.742% 9.467% 6.391% 2.507% 0.528% 0.041%
7. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 1.804% 5.517% 7.321% 10.820% 13.694% 15.309% 16.010% 14.994% 11.932% 9.920% 6.644% 2.661% 0.553% 0.062%
8. Seer 20220906 0.462% 1.658% 2.120% 4.101% 6.603% 9.556% 12.838% 16.750% 20.706% 27.326% 15.794% 8.482% 2.660% 0.390%
9. Igel 3.1.4 0.034% 0.226% 0.260% 0.721% 1.541% 2.914% 5.088% 8.824% 14.915% 65.737% 24.714% 25.424% 12.253% 3.346%
10. Arasan v23.4.0 0.012% 0.073% 0.085% 0.308% 0.806% 1.819% 3.335% 6.500% 12.673% 74.474% 24.781% 30.715% 15.048% 3.930%
11. Fritz 18_Vienna 0.001% 0.001% 0.006% 0.052% 0.118% 0.384% 0.981% 2.681% 95.777% 7.576% 19.074% 45.998% 23.129%
12. Nemorino 6.11 0.003% 0.015% 0.037% 0.115% 0.440% 99.390% 1.900% 6.416% 22.050% 69.024%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Berserk dev10_20220905 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE 25.287%
2. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Berserk dev10_20220905 22.428%
3. Berserk dev10_20220905 RubiChess 20220902 6.814%
4. Berserk dev10_20220905 Koivisto 8.13 6.661%
5. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE RubiChess 20220902 3.642%
6. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Koivisto 8.13 3.610%
7. Berserk dev10_20220905 Revenge 20220816 3.432%
8. Berserk dev10_20220905 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 3.086%
9. Berserk dev10_20220905 Minic 3.30 2.840%
10. RubiChess 20220902 Berserk dev10_20220905 2.168%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Berserk dev10_20220905 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE 47.715%
2. Berserk dev10_20220905 RubiChess 20220902 8.982%
3. Berserk dev10_20220905 Koivisto 8.13 8.423%
4. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE RubiChess 20220902 5.401%
5. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Koivisto 8.13 5.088%
6. Berserk dev10_20220905 Revenge 20220816 4.192%
7. Berserk dev10_20220905 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 3.767%
8. Berserk dev10_20220905 Minic 3.30 3.452%
9. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Revenge 20220816 2.509%
10. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 2.482%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.04h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2022-09-12 01:27 72 Seer 20220906 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-12 02:30 73 Seer 20220906 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-12 03:33 74 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-12 04:35 75 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Minic 3.30
2022-09-12 05:38 76 Revenge 20220816 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-12 06:41 77 RubiChess 20220902 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-12 07:43 78 Koivisto 8.13 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-12 08:46 79 Nemorino 6.11 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-12 09:49 80 Berserk dev10_20220905 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-12 10:51 81 Fritz 18_Vienna Revenge 20220816
2022-09-12 11:54 82 Arasan v23.4.0 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-12 12:56 83 Minic 3.30 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-12 13:59 84 Igel 3.1.4 Seer 20220906
2022-09-12 15:02 85 Igel 3.1.4 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-12 16:04 86 Seer 20220906 Minic 3.30
2022-09-12 17:07 87 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-12 18:10 88 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-12 19:12 89 Revenge 20220816 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-12 20:15 90 RubiChess 20220902 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-12 21:17 91 Nemorino 6.11 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-12 22:20 92 Koivisto 8.13 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-12 23:23 93 Berserk dev10_20220905 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-13 00:25 94 Fritz 18_Vienna ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-13 01:28 95 Arasan v23.4.0 Seer 20220906
2022-09-13 02:31 96 Minic 3.30 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-13 03:33 97 Minic 3.30 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-13 04:36 98 Igel 3.1.4 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-13 05:39 99 Seer 20220906 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-13 06:41 100 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-13 07:44 101 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-13 08:46 102 Revenge 20220816 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-13 09:49 103 Nemorino 6.11 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-13 10:52 104 RubiChess 20220902 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-13 11:54 105 Koivisto 8.13 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-13 12:57 106 Berserk dev10_20220905 Seer 20220906
2022-09-13 14:00 107 Fritz 18_Vienna Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-13 15:02 108 Arasan v23.4.0 Minic 3.30
2022-09-13 16:05 109 Arasan v23.4.0 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-13 17:07 110 Minic 3.30 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-13 18:10 111 Igel 3.1.4 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-13 19:13 112 Seer 20220906 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-13 20:15 113 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-13 21:18 114 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Revenge 20220816
2022-09-13 22:21 115 Nemorino 6.11 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-13 23:23 116 Revenge 20220816 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-14 00:26 117 RubiChess 20220902 Seer 20220906
2022-09-14 01:28 118 Koivisto 8.13 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-14 02:31 119 Berserk dev10_20220905 Minic 3.30
2022-09-14 03:34 120 Fritz 18_Vienna Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-14 04:36 121 Fritz 18_Vienna Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-14 05:39 122 Arasan v23.4.0 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-14 06:42 123 Minic 3.30 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-14 07:44 124 Igel 3.1.4 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-14 08:47 125 Seer 20220906 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-14 09:50 126 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-14 10:52 127 Nemorino 6.11 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-14 11:55 128 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Seer 20220906
2022-09-14 12:57 129 Revenge 20220816 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-14 14:00 130 RubiChess 20220902 Minic 3.30
2022-09-14 15:03 131 Koivisto 8.13 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-14 16:05 132 Berserk dev10_20220905 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-14 17:08 133 Berserk dev10_20220905 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-14 18:11 134 Koivisto 8.13 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-14 19:13 135 RubiChess 20220902 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-14 20:16 136 Revenge 20220816 Minic 3.30
2022-09-14 21:18 137 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-14 22:21 138 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Seer 20220906
2022-09-14 23:24 139 Nemorino 6.11 Seer 20220906
2022-09-15 00:26 140 Igel 3.1.4 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-15 01:29 141 Minic 3.30 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-15 02:32 142 Arasan v23.4.0 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-15 03:34 143 Fritz 18_Vienna RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-15 04:37 144 Berserk dev10_20220905 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-15 05:39 145 Koivisto 8.13 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-15 06:42 146 RubiChess 20220902 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-15 07:45 147 Revenge 20220816 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-15 08:47 148 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-15 09:50 149 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Minic 3.30
2022-09-15 10:53 150 Seer 20220906 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-15 11:55 151 Nemorino 6.11 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-15 12:58 152 Minic 3.30 Seer 20220906
2022-09-15 14:01 153 Arasan v23.4.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-15 15:03 154 Fritz 18_Vienna Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-15 16:06 155 Berserk dev10_20220905 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-15 17:08 156 Koivisto 8.13 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-15 18:11 157 RubiChess 20220902 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-15 19:14 158 Revenge 20220816 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-15 20:16 159 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-15 21:19 160 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-15 22:22 161 Seer 20220906 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-15 23:24 162 Igel 3.1.4 Minic 3.30
2022-09-16 00:27 163 Nemorino 6.11 Minic 3.30
2022-09-16 01:29 164 Arasan v23.4.0 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-16 02:32 165 Fritz 18_Vienna Seer 20220906
2022-09-16 03:35 166 Berserk dev10_20220905 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-16 04:37 167 Koivisto 8.13 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-16 05:40 168 RubiChess 20220902 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-16 06:43 169 Revenge 20220816 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-16 07:45 170 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-16 08:48 171 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-16 09:50 172 Seer 20220906 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-16 10:53 173 Igel 3.1.4 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-16 11:56 174 Minic 3.30 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-16 12:58 175 Nemorino 6.11 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-16 14:01 176 Fritz 18_Vienna Minic 3.30
2022-09-16 15:04 177 Berserk dev10_20220905 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-16 16:06 178 Koivisto 8.13 Seer 20220906
2022-09-16 17:09 179 RubiChess 20220902 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-16 18:12 180 Revenge 20220816 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-16 19:14 181 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-16 20:17 182 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-16 21:19 183 Seer 20220906 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-16 22:22 184 Igel 3.1.4 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-16 23:25 185 Minic 3.30 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-17 00:27 186 Arasan v23.4.0 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-17 01:30 187 Nemorino 6.11 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-17 02:33 188 Berserk dev10_20220905 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-17 03:35 189 Koivisto 8.13 Minic 3.30
2022-09-17 04:38 190 RubiChess 20220902 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-17 05:40 191 Revenge 20220816 Seer 20220906
2022-09-17 06:43 192 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-17 07:46 193 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-17 08:48 194 Seer 20220906 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-17 09:51 195 Igel 3.1.4 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-17 10:54 196 Minic 3.30 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-17 11:56 197 Arasan v23.4.0 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-17 12:59 198 Fritz 18_Vienna Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-17 14:01 199 Nemorino 6.11 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-17 15:04 200 Fritz 18_Vienna Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-17 16:07 201 Arasan v23.4.0 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-17 17:09 202 Minic 3.30 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-17 18:12 203 Igel 3.1.4 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-17 19:15 204 Seer 20220906 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-17 20:17 205 Seer 20220906 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-17 21:20 206 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-17 22:23 207 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Minic 3.30
2022-09-17 23:25 208 Revenge 20220816 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-18 00:28 209 RubiChess 20220902 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-18 01:30 210 Koivisto 8.13 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-18 02:33 211 Nemorino 6.11 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-18 03:36 212 Berserk dev10_20220905 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-18 04:38 213 Fritz 18_Vienna Revenge 20220816
2022-09-18 05:41 214 Arasan v23.4.0 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-18 06:44 215 Minic 3.30 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-18 07:46 216 Igel 3.1.4 Seer 20220906
2022-09-18 08:49 217 Igel 3.1.4 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-18 09:51 218 Seer 20220906 Minic 3.30
2022-09-18 10:54 219 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-18 11:57 220 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-18 12:59 221 Revenge 20220816 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-18 14:02 222 RubiChess 20220902 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-18 15:05 223 Nemorino 6.11 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-18 16:07 224 Koivisto 8.13 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-18 17:10 225 Berserk dev10_20220905 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-18 18:12 226 Fritz 18_Vienna ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-18 19:15 227 Arasan v23.4.0 Seer 20220906
2022-09-18 20:18 228 Minic 3.30 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-18 21:20 229 Minic 3.30 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-18 22:23 230 Igel 3.1.4 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-18 23:26 231 Seer 20220906 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-19 00:28 232 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-19 01:31 233 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-19 02:34 234 Revenge 20220816 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-19 03:36 235 Nemorino 6.11 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-19 04:39 236 RubiChess 20220902 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-19 05:41 237 Koivisto 8.13 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-19 06:44 238 Berserk dev10_20220905 Seer 20220906
2022-09-19 07:47 239 Fritz 18_Vienna Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-19 08:49 240 Arasan v23.4.0 Minic 3.30
2022-09-19 09:52 241 Arasan v23.4.0 Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-19 10:55 242 Minic 3.30 Fritz 18_Vienna
2022-09-19 11:57 243 Igel 3.1.4 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-19 13:00 244 Seer 20220906 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-19 14:02 245 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-19 15:05 246 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Revenge 20220816
2022-09-19 16:08 247 Nemorino 6.11 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-19 17:10 248 Revenge 20220816 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-19 18:13 249 RubiChess 20220902 Seer 20220906
2022-09-19 19:16 250 Koivisto 8.13 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-19 20:18 251 Berserk dev10_20220905 Minic 3.30
2022-09-19 21:21 252 Fritz 18_Vienna Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-19 22:23 253 Fritz 18_Vienna Nemorino 6.11
2022-09-19 23:26 254 Arasan v23.4.0 Berserk dev10_20220905
2022-09-20 00:29 255 Minic 3.30 Koivisto 8.13
2022-09-20 01:31 256 Igel 3.1.4 RubiChess 20220902
2022-09-20 02:34 257 Seer 20220906 Revenge 20220816
2022-09-20 03:37 258 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE
2022-09-20 04:39 259 Nemorino 6.11 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8
2022-09-20 05:42 260 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Seer 20220906
2022-09-20 06:45 261 Revenge 20220816 Igel 3.1.4
2022-09-20 07:47 262 RubiChess 20220902 Minic 3.30
2022-09-20 08:50 263 Koivisto 8.13 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-20 09:52 264 Berserk dev10_20220905 Fritz 18_Vienna