Sep 20 2022
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE 100.000% 100.000%
2. Berserk dev10_20220905 100.000% 100.000%
3. Minic 3.30 100.000%
4. Revenge 20220816 56.895% 43.105%
5. RubiChess 20220902 43.105% 56.895%
6. Seer 20220906 100.000%
7. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 100.000%
8. Koivisto 8.13 100.000%
9. Igel 3.1.4 100.000% 100.000%
10. Fritz 18_Vienna 100.000% 97.336% 2.664%
11. Arasan v23.4.0 100.000% 2.664% 97.336%
12. Nemorino 6.11 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Ethereal 13.88_NNUE Berserk dev10_20220905 100.000%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Berserk dev10_20220905 Ethereal 13.88_NNUE 100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.07h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2022-09-20 16:18 263 Koivisto 8.13 Arasan v23.4.0
2022-09-20 17:23 264 Berserk dev10_20220905 Fritz 18_Vienna
Posted inBayesElo