Feb 23 2023
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Fritz 18_Vienna 42.639% 25.791% 16.569% 9.830% 94.829% 4.463% 0.634% 0.068% 0.005% 0.001% 0.001%
2. Arasan 3e6e243 31.023% 28.723% 20.900% 12.653% 93.299% 5.768% 0.797% 0.119% 0.016% 0.001% 0.001%
3. Marvin 6.2.0-a7 10.389% 17.498% 22.014% 23.994% 73.895% 20.216% 4.930% 0.817% 0.126% 0.016% 0.016%
4. Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 9.538% 15.510% 20.544% 23.160% 68.752% 21.552% 7.669% 1.590% 0.350% 0.087% 0.085% 0.002%
5. BlackMarlin 8.0dev 6.332% 11.980% 18.138% 24.590% 61.040% 28.584% 7.926% 1.920% 0.458% 0.072% 0.065% 0.007%
6. Wasp 6.11 0.074% 0.457% 1.618% 4.653% 6.802% 13.861% 46.280% 20.220% 8.814% 4.023% 3.418% 0.567% 0.038%
7. Velvet 5.1.0 0.002% 0.018% 0.090% 0.402% 0.512% 2.048% 13.712% 32.017% 27.606% 24.105% 18.567% 5.237% 0.301%
8. Halogen 11.4.1 0.003% 0.020% 0.112% 0.587% 0.722% 2.703% 11.871% 25.103% 29.394% 30.207% 24.042% 5.472% 0.692% 0.001%
9. Nemorino 6.11 0.003% 0.015% 0.127% 0.145% 0.789% 5.794% 16.303% 27.842% 49.127% 37.643% 10.415% 1.067% 0.002%
10. Tucano 10.10_dev 0.004% 0.004% 0.016% 0.363% 1.727% 4.833% 93.057% 13.495% 56.567% 22.909% 0.086%
11. Booot 7.1_beta_lazar 0.024% 0.116% 0.556% 99.304% 2.666% 21.686% 72.187% 2.765%
12. Expositor TCEC24.L 100.000% 0.001% 0.047% 2.806% 97.146%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Fritz 18_Vienna Arasan 3e6e243 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 3.742%
2. Fritz 18_Vienna Arasan 3e6e243 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 3.123%
3. Fritz 18_Vienna Arasan 3e6e243 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 BlackMarlin 8.0dev 3.033%
4. Arasan 3e6e243 Fritz 18_Vienna Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 2.664%
5. Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Arasan 3e6e243 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 2.654%
6. Fritz 18_Vienna Arasan 3e6e243 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 BlackMarlin 8.0dev 2.613%
7. Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Arasan 3e6e243 BlackMarlin 8.0dev 2.536%
8. Fritz 18_Vienna Arasan 3e6e243 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Marvin 6.2.0-a7 2.522%
9. Arasan 3e6e243 Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 2.516%
10. Arasan 3e6e243 Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 BlackMarlin 8.0dev 2.497%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Arasan 3e6e243 Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 33.724%
2. Arasan 3e6e243 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 26.191%
3. Arasan 3e6e243 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Fritz 18_Vienna Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 22.019%
4. BlackMarlin 8.0dev Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 5.571%
5. Arasan 3e6e243 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 4.342%
6. Arasan 3e6e243 Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Wasp 6.11 2.176%
7. Arasan 3e6e243 Fritz 18_Vienna Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Wasp 6.11 1.589%
8. Arasan 3e6e243 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Fritz 18_Vienna Wasp 6.11 1.507%
9. BlackMarlin 8.0dev Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Wasp 6.11 0.297%
10. Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Wasp 6.11 0.291%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.01h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-02-23 22:26 172 Tucano 10.10_dev Wasp 6.11
2023-02-23 23:27 173 Halogen 11.4.1 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar
2023-02-24 00:27 174 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-02-24 01:28 175 Expositor TCEC24.L Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-02-24 02:29 176 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar Uralochka v3.39g-avx512
2023-02-24 03:30 177 Wasp 6.11 Halogen 11.4.1
2023-02-24 04:31 178 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Tucano 10.10_dev
2023-02-24 05:31 179 Nemorino 6.11 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-02-24 06:32 180 Velvet 5.1.0 Arasan 3e6e243
2023-02-24 07:33 181 Arasan 3e6e243 Expositor TCEC24.L
2023-02-24 08:34 182 Fritz 18_Vienna Velvet 5.1.0
2023-02-24 09:35 183 Tucano 10.10_dev Nemorino 6.11
2023-02-24 10:36 184 Halogen 11.4.1 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-02-24 11:36 185 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Wasp 6.11
2023-02-24 12:37 186 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar
2023-02-24 13:38 187 Expositor TCEC24.L Booot 7.1_beta_lazar
2023-02-24 14:39 188 Wasp 6.11 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-02-24 15:40 189 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Uralochka v3.39g-avx512
2023-02-24 16:40 190 Nemorino 6.11 Halogen 11.4.1
2023-02-24 17:41 191 Velvet 5.1.0 Tucano 10.10_dev
2023-02-24 18:42 192 Arasan 3e6e243 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-02-24 19:43 193 Fritz 18_Vienna Expositor TCEC24.L
2023-02-24 20:44 194 Tucano 10.10_dev Arasan 3e6e243
2023-02-24 21:45 195 Halogen 11.4.1 Velvet 5.1.0
2023-02-24 22:45 196 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Nemorino 6.11
2023-02-24 23:46 197 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-02-25 00:47 198 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar Wasp 6.11
2023-02-25 01:48 199 Expositor TCEC24.L Wasp 6.11
2023-02-25 02:49 200 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-02-25 03:49 201 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Nemorino 6.11
2023-02-25 04:50 202 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Velvet 5.1.0
2023-02-25 05:51 203 Halogen 11.4.1 Arasan 3e6e243
2023-02-25 06:52 204 Tucano 10.10_dev Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-02-25 07:53 205 Tucano 10.10_dev Expositor TCEC24.L
2023-02-25 08:53 206 Fritz 18_Vienna Halogen 11.4.1
2023-02-25 09:54 207 Arasan 3e6e243 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512
2023-02-25 10:55 208 Velvet 5.1.0 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-02-25 11:56 209 Nemorino 6.11 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar
2023-02-25 12:57 210 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Wasp 6.11
2023-02-25 13:58 211 Expositor TCEC24.L BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-02-25 14:58 212 Wasp 6.11 Nemorino 6.11
2023-02-25 15:59 213 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar Velvet 5.1.0
2023-02-25 17:00 214 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Arasan 3e6e243
2023-02-25 18:01 215 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-02-25 19:02 216 Halogen 11.4.1 Tucano 10.10_dev
2023-02-25 20:02 217 Halogen 11.4.1 Expositor TCEC24.L
2023-02-25 21:03 218 Tucano 10.10_dev Uralochka v3.39g-avx512
2023-02-25 22:04 219 Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-02-25 23:05 220 Arasan 3e6e243 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar
2023-02-26 00:06 221 Velvet 5.1.0 Wasp 6.11
2023-02-26 01:06 222 Nemorino 6.11 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-02-26 02:07 223 Expositor TCEC24.L Nemorino 6.11
2023-02-26 03:08 224 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Velvet 5.1.0
2023-02-26 04:09 225 Wasp 6.11 Arasan 3e6e243
2023-02-26 05:10 226 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-02-26 06:11 227 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Tucano 10.10_dev
2023-02-26 07:11 228 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Halogen 11.4.1
2023-02-26 08:12 229 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Expositor TCEC24.L
2023-02-26 09:13 230 Halogen 11.4.1 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-02-26 10:14 231 Tucano 10.10_dev Booot 7.1_beta_lazar
2023-02-26 11:15 232 Fritz 18_Vienna Wasp 6.11
2023-02-26 12:15 233 Arasan 3e6e243 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-02-26 13:16 234 Velvet 5.1.0 Nemorino 6.11
2023-02-26 14:17 235 Expositor TCEC24.L Velvet 5.1.0
2023-02-26 15:18 236 Nemorino 6.11 Arasan 3e6e243
2023-02-26 16:19 237 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-02-26 17:19 238 Wasp 6.11 Tucano 10.10_dev
2023-02-26 18:20 239 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar Halogen 11.4.1
2023-02-26 19:21 240 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512
2023-02-26 20:22 241 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Expositor TCEC24.L
2023-02-26 21:23 242 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar
2023-02-26 22:24 243 Halogen 11.4.1 Wasp 6.11
2023-02-26 23:24 244 Tucano 10.10_dev BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-02-27 00:25 245 Fritz 18_Vienna Nemorino 6.11
2023-02-27 01:26 246 Arasan 3e6e243 Velvet 5.1.0
2023-02-27 02:27 247 Expositor TCEC24.L Arasan 3e6e243
2023-02-27 03:28 248 Velvet 5.1.0 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-02-27 04:28 249 Nemorino 6.11 Tucano 10.10_dev
2023-02-27 05:29 250 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Halogen 11.4.1
2023-02-27 06:30 251 Wasp 6.11 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512
2023-02-27 07:31 252 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-02-27 08:32 253 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar Expositor TCEC24.L
2023-02-27 09:32 254 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Wasp 6.11
2023-02-27 10:33 255 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-02-27 11:34 256 Halogen 11.4.1 Nemorino 6.11
2023-02-27 12:35 257 Tucano 10.10_dev Velvet 5.1.0
2023-02-27 13:36 258 Fritz 18_Vienna Arasan 3e6e243
2023-02-27 14:37 259 Expositor TCEC24.L Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-02-27 15:37 260 Arasan 3e6e243 Tucano 10.10_dev
2023-02-27 16:38 261 Velvet 5.1.0 Halogen 11.4.1
2023-02-27 17:39 262 Nemorino 6.11 Uralochka v3.39g-avx512
2023-02-27 18:40 263 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-02-27 19:41 264 Wasp 6.11 Booot 7.1_beta_lazar
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