Mar 01 2023
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Including non-Booot L2 games

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Igel 3.4.0 100.000% 100.000%
2. BlackMarlin 8.0dev 100.000% 100.000%
3. Marvin 6.2.0-a7 100.000% 100.000%
4. Fritz 18_Vienna 100.000% 100.000%
5. Uralochka v3.39g-avx512 100.000%
6. Arasan 3e6e243 100.000%
7. Wasp 6.11 88.579% 11.421%
8. Halogen 11.4.1 11.421% 88.579%
9. Velvet 5.1.0 100.000% 100.000%
10. Tucano 10.10_dev 100.000% 100.000%
11. Nemorino 6.11 100.000% 100.000%
12. Expositor TCEC24.L 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Igel 3.4.0 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Fritz 18_Vienna 100.000%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. BlackMarlin 8.0dev Fritz 18_Vienna Igel 3.4.0 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.01h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-03-01 15:48 43 Igel 3.4.0 Wasp 6.11
2023-03-01 16:48 44 Wasp 6.11 Igel 3.4.0
Posted inBayesElo