Mar 08 2023
Off
For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Koivisto 9.2 78.532% 13.496% 92.028% 4.731% 1.985% 0.798% 0.338% 0.105% 0.015%
2. Revenge 20230209 8.371% 28.981% 37.352% 22.161% 16.155% 11.121% 7.091% 4.023% 1.721% 0.376% 0.368% 0.008%
3. Berserk 20230227 5.222% 19.195% 24.417% 19.482% 17.830% 14.880% 11.496% 7.595% 3.677% 0.623% 0.597% 0.026%
4. Igel 3.5-dev 3.167% 14.685% 17.852% 17.802% 18.330% 17.291% 13.988% 8.964% 4.587% 1.186% 1.134% 0.052%
5. RubiChess 20230301 2.964% 13.009% 15.973% 17.328% 18.158% 17.647% 14.817% 9.788% 5.119% 1.170% 1.113% 0.056% 0.001%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 1.349% 7.612% 8.961% 11.786% 15.516% 18.079% 19.550% 14.886% 8.677% 2.545% 2.355% 0.187% 0.003%
7. Seer 20230107 0.296% 1.790% 2.086% 3.860% 6.603% 10.775% 16.471% 24.571% 24.586% 11.048% 10.499% 0.537% 0.012%
8. rofChade 3.017 0.098% 1.191% 1.289% 2.691% 4.978% 8.243% 13.360% 22.480% 31.277% 15.682% 13.919% 1.702% 0.058% 0.003%
9. Minic 3.33 0.001% 0.041% 0.042% 0.159% 0.443% 1.149% 2.809% 7.277% 18.507% 69.614% 56.231% 12.147% 1.127% 0.109%
10. Fritz 18_Vienna 0.002% 0.017% 0.078% 0.308% 1.785% 97.810% 12.541% 68.335% 13.771% 3.163%
11. BlackMarlin 8.0dev 0.001% 0.003% 0.031% 99.965% 0.809% 10.110% 51.712% 37.334%
12. Marvin 6.2.0-a7 0.001% 0.018% 99.981% 0.434% 6.840% 33.316% 59.391%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Koivisto 9.2 Revenge 20230209 27.050%
2. Koivisto 9.2 Berserk 20230227 17.276%
3. Koivisto 9.2 Igel 3.5-dev 13.254%
4. Koivisto 9.2 RubiChess 20230301 11.566%
5. Koivisto 9.2 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 6.766%
6. Revenge 20230209 Koivisto 9.2 5.404%
7. Berserk 20230227 Koivisto 9.2 3.453%
8. Igel 3.5-dev Koivisto 9.2 1.899%
9. RubiChess 20230301 Koivisto 9.2 1.765%
10. Koivisto 9.2 Seer 20230107 1.500%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Koivisto 9.2 Revenge 20230209 32.454%
2. Berserk 20230227 Koivisto 9.2 20.729%
3. Igel 3.5-dev Koivisto 9.2 15.153%
4. Koivisto 9.2 RubiChess 20230301 13.331%
5. Koivisto 9.2 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 7.524%
6. Berserk 20230227 Revenge 20230209 1.758%
7. Koivisto 9.2 Seer 20230107 1.672%
8. Revenge 20230209 RubiChess 20230301 1.242%
9. Igel 3.5-dev Revenge 20230209 1.142%
10. Koivisto 9.2 rofChade 3.017 1.127%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.05h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-03-08 03:40 144 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-08 04:43 145 Koivisto 9.2 Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-08 05:46 146 Berserk 20230227 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-08 06:49 147 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 rofChade 3.017
2023-03-08 07:51 148 Fritz 18_Vienna Minic 3.33
2023-03-08 08:54 149 RubiChess 20230301 Seer 20230107
2023-03-08 09:57 150 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Revenge 20230209
2023-03-08 11:00 151 Igel 3.5-dev Revenge 20230209
2023-03-08 12:03 152 Seer 20230107 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-03-08 13:06 153 Minic 3.33 RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-08 14:09 154 rofChade 3.017 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-08 15:12 155 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-08 16:15 156 Koivisto 9.2 Berserk 20230227
2023-03-08 17:18 157 Berserk 20230227 Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-08 18:21 158 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-08 19:24 159 Fritz 18_Vienna Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-08 20:27 160 RubiChess 20230301 rofChade 3.017
2023-03-08 21:29 161 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Minic 3.33
2023-03-08 22:32 162 Revenge 20230209 Seer 20230107
2023-03-08 23:35 163 Igel 3.5-dev Seer 20230107
2023-03-09 00:38 164 Minic 3.33 Revenge 20230209
2023-03-09 01:41 165 rofChade 3.017 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-03-09 02:44 166 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-09 03:47 167 Koivisto 9.2 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-09 04:50 168 Berserk 20230227 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-09 05:53 169 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-09 06:56 170 Fritz 18_Vienna Berserk 20230227
2023-03-09 07:59 171 RubiChess 20230301 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-09 09:02 172 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-09 10:04 173 Revenge 20230209 rofChade 3.017
2023-03-09 11:07 174 Seer 20230107 Minic 3.33
2023-03-09 12:10 175 Igel 3.5-dev Minic 3.33
2023-03-09 13:13 176 rofChade 3.017 Seer 20230107
2023-03-09 14:16 177 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Revenge 20230209
2023-03-09 15:19 178 Koivisto 9.2 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-03-09 16:22 179 Berserk 20230227 RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-09 17:25 180 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-09 18:28 181 Fritz 18_Vienna Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-09 19:31 182 RubiChess 20230301 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-09 20:34 183 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Berserk 20230227
2023-03-09 21:37 184 Revenge 20230209 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-09 22:40 185 Seer 20230107 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-09 23:42 186 Minic 3.33 rofChade 3.017
2023-03-10 00:45 187 Igel 3.5-dev rofChade 3.017
2023-03-10 01:48 188 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Minic 3.33
2023-03-10 02:51 189 Koivisto 9.2 Seer 20230107
2023-03-10 03:54 190 Berserk 20230227 Revenge 20230209
2023-03-10 04:57 191 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-03-10 06:00 192 Fritz 18_Vienna RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-10 07:03 193 RubiChess 20230301 Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-10 08:06 194 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-10 09:09 195 Revenge 20230209 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-10 10:12 196 Seer 20230107 Berserk 20230227
2023-03-10 11:15 197 Minic 3.33 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-10 12:18 198 rofChade 3.017 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-10 13:20 199 Igel 3.5-dev Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-10 14:23 200 rofChade 3.017 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-10 15:26 201 Minic 3.33 Berserk 20230227
2023-03-10 16:29 202 Seer 20230107 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-10 17:32 203 Revenge 20230209 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-10 18:35 204 BlackMarlin 8.0dev RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-10 19:38 205 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-10 20:41 206 RubiChess 20230301 Revenge 20230209
2023-03-10 21:44 207 Fritz 18_Vienna Seer 20230107
2023-03-10 22:47 208 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Minic 3.33
2023-03-10 23:50 209 Berserk 20230227 rofChade 3.017
2023-03-11 00:53 210 Koivisto 9.2 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-11 01:55 211 Igel 3.5-dev Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-11 02:58 212 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Berserk 20230227
2023-03-11 04:01 213 rofChade 3.017 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-11 05:04 214 Minic 3.33 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-11 06:07 215 Seer 20230107 RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-11 07:10 216 Revenge 20230209 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-03-11 08:13 217 Revenge 20230209 Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-11 09:16 218 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Seer 20230107
2023-03-11 10:19 219 RubiChess 20230301 Minic 3.33
2023-03-11 11:22 220 Fritz 18_Vienna rofChade 3.017
2023-03-11 12:25 221 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-11 13:28 222 Berserk 20230227 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-11 14:31 223 Igel 3.5-dev Berserk 20230227
2023-03-11 15:33 224 Koivisto 9.2 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-11 16:36 225 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-11 17:39 226 rofChade 3.017 RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-11 18:42 227 Minic 3.33 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-03-11 19:45 228 Seer 20230107 Revenge 20230209
2023-03-11 20:48 229 Seer 20230107 Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-11 21:51 230 Revenge 20230209 Minic 3.33
2023-03-11 22:54 231 BlackMarlin 8.0dev rofChade 3.017
2023-03-11 23:57 232 RubiChess 20230301 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-12 01:00 233 Fritz 18_Vienna Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-12 02:03 234 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Berserk 20230227
2023-03-12 03:06 235 Igel 3.5-dev ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-12 04:08 236 Berserk 20230227 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-12 05:11 237 Koivisto 9.2 RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-12 06:14 238 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-03-12 07:17 239 rofChade 3.017 Revenge 20230209
2023-03-12 08:20 240 Minic 3.33 Seer 20230107
2023-03-12 09:23 241 Minic 3.33 Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-12 10:26 242 Seer 20230107 rofChade 3.017
2023-03-12 11:29 243 Revenge 20230209 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-12 12:32 244 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-12 13:35 245 RubiChess 20230301 Berserk 20230227
2023-03-12 14:38 246 Fritz 18_Vienna ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-12 15:41 247 Igel 3.5-dev Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-12 16:44 248 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-12 17:46 249 Berserk 20230227 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-03-12 18:49 250 Koivisto 9.2 Revenge 20230209
2023-03-12 19:52 251 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 Seer 20230107
2023-03-12 20:55 252 rofChade 3.017 Minic 3.33
2023-03-12 21:58 253 rofChade 3.017 Igel 3.5-dev
2023-03-12 23:01 254 Minic 3.33 Marvin 6.2.0-a7
2023-03-13 00:04 255 Seer 20230107 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-13 01:07 256 Revenge 20230209 Berserk 20230227
2023-03-13 02:10 257 BlackMarlin 8.0dev ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-03-13 03:13 258 RubiChess 20230301 Fritz 18_Vienna
2023-03-13 04:16 259 Igel 3.5-dev RubiChess 20230301
2023-03-13 05:19 260 Fritz 18_Vienna BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-03-13 06:21 261 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Revenge 20230209
2023-03-13 07:24 262 Berserk 20230227 Seer 20230107
2023-03-13 08:27 263 Koivisto 9.2 Minic 3.33
2023-03-13 09:30 264 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 rofChade 3.017
Posted inBayesElo