Mar 13 2023
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Koivisto 9.2 100.000% 100.000%
2. Berserk 20230227 99.039% 99.039% 0.961%
3. Igel 3.5-dev 82.191% 15.679% 2.130%
4. Revenge 20230209 0.961% 0.961% 9.736% 43.217% 21.036% 25.050%
5. RubiChess 20230301 28.091% 57.843% 14.066%
6. rofChade 3.017 7.112% 13.013% 18.991% 60.884%
7. Seer 20230107 52.330% 47.670%
8. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 47.670% 52.330%
9. Minic 3.33 100.000% 100.000%
10. BlackMarlin 8.0dev 100.000% 64.223% 35.777%
11. Fritz 18_Vienna 100.000% 35.777% 64.223%
12. Marvin 6.2.0-a7 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Koivisto 9.2 Berserk 20230227 99.039%
2. Koivisto 9.2 Revenge 20230209 0.961%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Berserk 20230227 Koivisto 9.2 99.039%
2. Koivisto 9.2 Revenge 20230209 0.961%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.05h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-03-13 07:01 261 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Revenge 20230209
2023-03-13 08:04 262 Berserk 20230227 Seer 20230107
2023-03-13 09:07 263 Koivisto 9.2 Minic 3.33
2023-03-13 10:10 264 Marvin 6.2.0-a7 rofChade 3.017
Posted inBayesElo