For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 66.780% 23.883% 9.160% 0.171% 99.994% 0.006%
2. LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 19.257% 39.600% 38.920% 1.981% 99.758% 0.207% 0.033% 0.002% 0.001% 0.001%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 13.932% 36.029% 46.985% 2.686% 99.632% 0.323% 0.038% 0.007% 0.007%
4. Ethereal 14.06 0.022% 0.344% 3.036% 46.359% 49.761% 26.126% 15.238% 8.875% 7.885% 0.990%
5. Stoofvlees II b4 0.005% 0.073% 0.845% 19.060% 19.983% 25.619% 25.906% 28.492% 23.351% 5.141%
6. Berserk 20230311 0.003% 0.040% 0.527% 16.179% 16.749% 24.362% 27.345% 31.544% 25.308% 6.236%
7. Koivisto 9.2 0.001% 0.031% 0.522% 13.202% 13.756% 21.883% 27.194% 37.167% 30.363% 6.804%
8. SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 0.005% 0.362% 0.367% 1.474% 4.246% 93.913% 13.085% 80.828%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.06 16.157%
2. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Ethereal 14.06 14.477%
3. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b4 6.645%
4. LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.06 6.553%
5. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stoofvlees II b4 5.864%
6. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2 Berserk 20230311 5.648%
7. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Berserk 20230311 4.924%
8. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2 Koivisto 9.2 4.637%
9. KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Ethereal 14.06 4.463%
10. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Koivisto 9.2 4.121%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 14.06 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 49.273%
2. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Stoofvlees II b4 19.676%
3. Berserk 20230311 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 16.523%
4. Koivisto 9.2 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 13.548%
5. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 0.364%
6. Ethereal 14.06 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Stoofvlees II b4 0.132%
7. Berserk 20230311 Ethereal 14.06 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 0.093%
8. Ethereal 14.06 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Stoofvlees II b4 0.080%
9. Ethereal 14.06 Koivisto 9.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 0.067%
10. Ethereal 14.06 Koivisto 9.2 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 0.055%

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.02h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-03-20 20:28 62 Ethereal 14.06 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-20 22:30 63 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-21 00:31 64 KomodoDragon 3.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-21 02:33 65 Berserk 20230311 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-21 04:34 66 Koivisto 9.2 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-21 06:36 67 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-21 08:37 68 Stoofvlees II b4 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-21 10:39 69 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-21 12:40 70 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-21 14:42 71 KomodoDragon 3.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-21 16:43 72 Berserk 20230311 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-21 18:44 73 Koivisto 9.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-21 20:46 74 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-21 22:47 75 Stoofvlees II b4 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-22 00:49 76 Ethereal 14.06 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-22 02:50 77 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-22 04:52 78 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-22 06:53 79 Berserk 20230311 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-22 08:55 80 Koivisto 9.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-22 10:56 81 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-22 12:58 82 Stoofvlees II b4 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-22 14:59 83 Ethereal 14.06 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-22 17:01 84 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-22 19:02 85 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-22 21:03 86 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-22 23:05 87 Ethereal 14.06 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-23 01:06 88 Stoofvlees II b4 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-23 03:08 89 Stoofvlees II b4 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-23 05:09 90 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-23 07:11 91 Koivisto 9.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-23 09:12 92 Berserk 20230311 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-23 11:14 93 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Berserk 20230311
2023-03-23 13:15 94 KomodoDragon 3.2 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-23 15:17 95 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-23 17:18 96 Ethereal 14.06 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-23 19:19 97 Ethereal 14.06 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-23 21:21 98 Stoofvlees II b4 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-23 23:22 99 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-24 01:24 100 Koivisto 9.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-24 03:25 101 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-24 05:27 102 Berserk 20230311 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-24 07:28 103 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-24 09:30 104 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-24 11:31 105 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-24 13:33 106 Ethereal 14.06 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-24 15:34 107 Stoofvlees II b4 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-24 17:36 108 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-24 19:37 109 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-24 21:38 110 Koivisto 9.2 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-24 23:40 111 Berserk 20230311 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-25 01:41 112 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-25 03:43 113 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-25 05:44 114 Berserk 20230311 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-25 07:46 115 Koivisto 9.2 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-25 09:47 116 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-25 11:49 117 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-25 13:50 118 Ethereal 14.06 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-25 15:52 119 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-25 17:53 120 KomodoDragon 3.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-25 19:54 121 Berserk 20230311 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-25 21:56 122 Koivisto 9.2 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-25 23:57 123 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-26 01:59 124 Stoofvlees II b4 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-26 04:00 125 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-26 06:02 126 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-26 08:03 127 KomodoDragon 3.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-26 10:05 128 Berserk 20230311 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-26 12:06 129 Koivisto 9.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-26 14:08 130 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-26 16:09 131 Stoofvlees II b4 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-26 18:11 132 Ethereal 14.06 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-26 20:12 133 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-26 22:13 134 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-27 00:15 135 Berserk 20230311 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-27 02:16 136 Koivisto 9.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-27 04:18 137 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-27 06:19 138 Stoofvlees II b4 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-27 08:21 139 Ethereal 14.06 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-27 10:22 140 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-27 12:24 141 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-27 14:25 142 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-27 16:27 143 Ethereal 14.06 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-27 18:28 144 Stoofvlees II b4 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-27 20:29 145 Stoofvlees II b4 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-27 22:31 146 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-28 00:32 147 Koivisto 9.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-28 02:34 148 Berserk 20230311 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-28 04:35 149 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Berserk 20230311
2023-03-28 06:37 150 KomodoDragon 3.2 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-28 08:38 151 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-28 10:40 152 Ethereal 14.06 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-28 12:41 153 Ethereal 14.06 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-28 14:43 154 Stoofvlees II b4 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-28 16:44 155 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-28 18:46 156 Koivisto 9.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-28 20:47 157 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-28 22:48 158 Berserk 20230311 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-29 00:50 159 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-29 02:51 160 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-29 04:53 161 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-29 06:54 162 Ethereal 14.06 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-29 08:56 163 Stoofvlees II b4 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-29 10:57 164 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-29 12:59 165 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-29 15:00 166 Koivisto 9.2 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-29 17:02 167 Berserk 20230311 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-29 19:03 168 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-29 21:04 169 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-29 23:06 170 Berserk 20230311 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-30 01:07 171 Koivisto 9.2 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-30 03:09 172 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-30 05:10 173 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-30 07:12 174 Ethereal 14.06 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-30 09:13 175 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-30 11:15 176 KomodoDragon 3.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-30 13:16 177 Berserk 20230311 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-30 15:18 178 Koivisto 9.2 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-30 17:19 179 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-30 19:21 180 Stoofvlees II b4 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-30 21:22 181 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-30 23:23 182 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-31 01:25 183 KomodoDragon 3.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-31 03:26 184 Berserk 20230311 Koivisto 9.2
2023-03-31 05:28 185 Koivisto 9.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-31 07:29 186 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Berserk 20230311
2023-03-31 09:31 187 Stoofvlees II b4 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-03-31 11:32 188 Ethereal 14.06 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-31 13:34 189 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-03-31 15:35 190 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.06
2023-03-31 17:37 191 Berserk 20230311 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-03-31 19:38 192 Koivisto 9.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-03-31 21:39 193 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-03-31 23:41 194 Stoofvlees II b4 Koivisto 9.2
2023-04-01 01:42 195 Ethereal 14.06 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-01 03:44 196 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-01 05:45 197 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-01 07:47 198 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-01 09:48 199 Ethereal 14.06 Koivisto 9.2
2023-04-01 11:50 200 Stoofvlees II b4 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-04-01 13:51 201 Stoofvlees II b4 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-01 15:53 202 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Ethereal 14.06
2023-04-01 17:54 203 Koivisto 9.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-01 19:56 204 Berserk 20230311 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-01 21:57 205 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Berserk 20230311
2023-04-01 23:58 206 KomodoDragon 3.2 Koivisto 9.2
2023-04-02 02:00 207 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-04-02 04:01 208 Ethereal 14.06 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-04-02 06:03 209 Ethereal 14.06 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-02 08:04 210 Stoofvlees II b4 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-02 10:06 211 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-02 12:07 212 Koivisto 9.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-02 14:09 213 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Koivisto 9.2
2023-04-02 16:10 214 Berserk 20230311 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-04-02 18:12 215 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-04-02 20:13 216 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Ethereal 14.06
2023-04-02 22:14 217 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-03 00:16 218 Ethereal 14.06 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-03 02:17 219 Stoofvlees II b4 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-03 04:19 220 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Koivisto 9.2
2023-04-03 06:20 221 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-04-03 08:22 222 Koivisto 9.2 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-04-03 10:23 223 Berserk 20230311 Ethereal 14.06
2023-04-03 12:25 224 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000