For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post


Including top4 DivP games

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 87.361% 12.254% 99.615% 0.385%
2. LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 12.318% 78.502% 90.820% 9.180%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 0.321% 9.244% 9.565% 90.410% 0.025%
4. Berserk 20230311 0.025% 99.975%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 78.375%
2. LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 12.060%
3. Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2 8.986%
4. LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2 0.258%
5. KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 0.194%
6. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 0.127%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 90.435%
2. KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed 9.180%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 0.385%

Expected start time based on estimate of 3.12h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-04-04 05:55 3 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-04 09:03 4 KomodoDragon 3.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-04 12:10 5 Berserk 20230311 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-04 15:17 6 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-04 18:24 7 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-04 21:32 8 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Berserk 20230311
2023-04-05 00:39 9 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-05 03:46 10 Berserk 20230311 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-05 06:53 11 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-05 10:01 12 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-05 13:08 13 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-05 16:15 14 Berserk 20230311 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-05 19:22 15 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-05 22:30 16 KomodoDragon 3.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-06 01:37 17 Berserk 20230311 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-06 04:44 18 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-06 07:51 19 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-06 10:59 20 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Berserk 20230311
2023-04-06 14:06 21 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-06 17:13 22 Berserk 20230311 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-06 20:20 23 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-06 23:28 24 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-07 02:35 25 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-07 05:42 26 Berserk 20230311 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-07 08:49 27 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-07 11:57 28 KomodoDragon 3.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-07 15:04 29 Berserk 20230311 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-07 18:11 30 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-07 21:18 31 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-08 00:26 32 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Berserk 20230311
2023-04-08 03:33 33 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-08 06:40 34 Berserk 20230311 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-08 09:47 35 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-08 12:55 36 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-08 16:02 37 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-08 19:09 38 Berserk 20230311 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-08 22:16 39 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed
2023-04-09 01:24 40 KomodoDragon 3.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-09 04:31 41 Berserk 20230311 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-09 07:38 42 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-09 10:46 43 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-09 13:53 44 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed Berserk 20230311
2023-04-09 17:00 45 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000
2023-04-09 20:07 46 Berserk 20230311 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-04-09 23:15 47 LCZero 0.30-dag-8092b376-BT2-3650000 Berserk 20230311
2023-04-10 02:22 48 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230308-39da50ed