May 08 2023
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. ice4 v3 84.905% 15.046% 99.951% 0.049%
2. 4ku 3.0 15.035% 84.278% 99.313% 0.687%
3. STRO4K 1.0 0.060% 0.676% 0.736% 97.488% 1.776%
4. M4sseur 1.0 1.776% 96.917% 1.299% 0.008%
5. pygone 1.5.4 1.305% 96.780% 1.915%
6. sunfish 2022-12-24_classic 0.002% 1.921% 98.077%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. ice4 v3 4ku 3.0 84.260%
2. 4ku 3.0 ice4 v3 15.004%
3. ice4 v3 STRO4K 1.0 0.645%
4. STRO4K 1.0 ice4 v3 0.042%
5. 4ku 3.0 STRO4K 1.0 0.031%
6. STRO4K 1.0 4ku 3.0 0.018%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. 4ku 3.0 ice4 v3 99.264%
2. STRO4K 1.0 ice4 v3 0.687%
3. 4ku 3.0 STRO4K 1.0 0.049%

Expected start time based on estimate of 0.89h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-05-08 06:22 16 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic 4ku 3.0
2023-05-08 07:16 17 STRO4K 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-08 08:09 18 pygone 1.5.4 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-08 09:03 19 pygone 1.5.4 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-08 09:57 20 M4sseur 1.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-08 10:50 21 ice4 v3 4ku 3.0
2023-05-08 11:44 22 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic ice4 v3
2023-05-08 12:37 23 4ku 3.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-08 13:31 24 STRO4K 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-08 14:24 25 STRO4K 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-08 15:18 26 pygone 1.5.4 4ku 3.0
2023-05-08 16:11 27 M4sseur 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-08 17:05 28 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-08 17:58 29 ice4 v3 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-08 18:52 30 4ku 3.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-08 19:45 31 4ku 3.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-08 20:39 32 ice4 v3 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-08 21:32 33 M4sseur 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-08 22:26 34 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-08 23:19 35 STRO4K 1.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-09 00:13 36 4ku 3.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-09 01:07 37 ice4 v3 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-09 02:00 38 M4sseur 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-09 02:54 39 pygone 1.5.4 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-09 03:47 40 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-09 04:41 41 4ku 3.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-09 05:34 42 ice4 v3 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-09 06:28 43 M4sseur 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-09 07:21 44 pygone 1.5.4 ice4 v3
2023-05-09 08:15 45 STRO4K 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-09 09:08 46 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic 4ku 3.0
2023-05-09 10:02 47 STRO4K 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-09 10:55 48 pygone 1.5.4 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-09 11:49 49 pygone 1.5.4 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-09 12:42 50 M4sseur 1.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-09 13:36 51 ice4 v3 4ku 3.0
2023-05-09 14:29 52 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic ice4 v3
2023-05-09 15:23 53 4ku 3.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-09 16:17 54 STRO4K 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-09 17:10 55 STRO4K 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-09 18:04 56 pygone 1.5.4 4ku 3.0
2023-05-09 18:57 57 M4sseur 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-09 19:51 58 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-09 20:44 59 ice4 v3 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-09 21:38 60 4ku 3.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-09 22:31 61 4ku 3.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-09 23:25 62 ice4 v3 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-10 00:18 63 M4sseur 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-10 01:12 64 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-10 02:05 65 STRO4K 1.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-10 02:59 66 4ku 3.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-10 03:52 67 ice4 v3 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-10 04:46 68 M4sseur 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-10 05:39 69 pygone 1.5.4 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-10 06:33 70 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-10 07:27 71 4ku 3.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-10 08:20 72 ice4 v3 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-10 09:14 73 M4sseur 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-10 10:07 74 pygone 1.5.4 ice4 v3
2023-05-10 11:01 75 STRO4K 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-10 11:54 76 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic 4ku 3.0
2023-05-10 12:48 77 STRO4K 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-10 13:41 78 pygone 1.5.4 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-10 14:35 79 pygone 1.5.4 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-10 15:28 80 M4sseur 1.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-10 16:22 81 ice4 v3 4ku 3.0
2023-05-10 17:15 82 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic ice4 v3
2023-05-10 18:09 83 4ku 3.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-10 19:02 84 STRO4K 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-10 19:56 85 STRO4K 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-10 20:49 86 pygone 1.5.4 4ku 3.0
2023-05-10 21:43 87 M4sseur 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-10 22:37 88 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-10 23:30 89 ice4 v3 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-11 00:24 90 4ku 3.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-11 01:17 91 4ku 3.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-11 02:11 92 ice4 v3 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-11 03:04 93 M4sseur 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-11 03:58 94 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-11 04:51 95 STRO4K 1.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-11 05:45 96 4ku 3.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-11 06:38 97 ice4 v3 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-11 07:32 98 M4sseur 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-11 08:25 99 pygone 1.5.4 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-11 09:19 100 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-11 10:12 101 4ku 3.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-11 11:06 102 ice4 v3 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-11 11:59 103 M4sseur 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-11 12:53 104 pygone 1.5.4 ice4 v3
2023-05-11 13:47 105 STRO4K 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-11 14:40 106 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic 4ku 3.0
2023-05-11 15:34 107 STRO4K 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-11 16:27 108 pygone 1.5.4 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-11 17:21 109 pygone 1.5.4 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-11 18:14 110 M4sseur 1.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-11 19:08 111 ice4 v3 4ku 3.0
2023-05-11 20:01 112 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic ice4 v3
2023-05-11 20:55 113 4ku 3.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-11 21:48 114 STRO4K 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-11 22:42 115 STRO4K 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-11 23:35 116 pygone 1.5.4 4ku 3.0
2023-05-12 00:29 117 M4sseur 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-12 01:22 118 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-12 02:16 119 ice4 v3 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-12 03:09 120 4ku 3.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-12 04:03 121 4ku 3.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-12 04:57 122 ice4 v3 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-12 05:50 123 M4sseur 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-12 06:44 124 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-12 07:37 125 STRO4K 1.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-12 08:31 126 4ku 3.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-12 09:24 127 ice4 v3 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-12 10:18 128 M4sseur 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-12 11:11 129 pygone 1.5.4 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-12 12:05 130 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-12 12:58 131 4ku 3.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-12 13:52 132 ice4 v3 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-12 14:45 133 M4sseur 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-12 15:39 134 pygone 1.5.4 ice4 v3
2023-05-12 16:32 135 STRO4K 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-12 17:26 136 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic 4ku 3.0
2023-05-12 18:19 137 STRO4K 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-12 19:13 138 pygone 1.5.4 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-12 20:07 139 pygone 1.5.4 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-12 21:00 140 M4sseur 1.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-12 21:54 141 ice4 v3 4ku 3.0
2023-05-12 22:47 142 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic ice4 v3
2023-05-12 23:41 143 4ku 3.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-13 00:34 144 STRO4K 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-13 01:28 145 STRO4K 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-13 02:21 146 pygone 1.5.4 4ku 3.0
2023-05-13 03:15 147 M4sseur 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-13 04:08 148 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-13 05:02 149 ice4 v3 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-13 05:55 150 4ku 3.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-13 06:49 151 4ku 3.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-13 07:42 152 ice4 v3 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-13 08:36 153 M4sseur 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-13 09:29 154 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-13 10:23 155 STRO4K 1.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-13 11:17 156 4ku 3.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-13 12:10 157 ice4 v3 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-13 13:04 158 M4sseur 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-13 13:57 159 pygone 1.5.4 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-13 14:51 160 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-13 15:44 161 4ku 3.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-13 16:38 162 ice4 v3 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-13 17:31 163 M4sseur 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-13 18:25 164 pygone 1.5.4 ice4 v3
2023-05-13 19:18 165 STRO4K 1.0 4ku 3.0
2023-05-13 20:12 166 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic 4ku 3.0
2023-05-13 21:05 167 STRO4K 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-13 21:59 168 pygone 1.5.4 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-13 22:52 169 pygone 1.5.4 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-13 23:46 170 M4sseur 1.0 STRO4K 1.0
2023-05-14 00:39 171 ice4 v3 4ku 3.0
2023-05-14 01:33 172 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic ice4 v3
2023-05-14 02:27 173 4ku 3.0 M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-14 03:20 174 STRO4K 1.0 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-14 04:14 175 STRO4K 1.0 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic
2023-05-14 05:07 176 pygone 1.5.4 4ku 3.0
2023-05-14 06:01 177 M4sseur 1.0 ice4 v3
2023-05-14 06:54 178 sunfish 2022-12-24_classic M4sseur 1.0
2023-05-14 07:48 179 ice4 v3 pygone 1.5.4
2023-05-14 08:41 180 4ku 3.0 STRO4K 1.0
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