For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 65.723% 26.904% 92.627% 7.264% 0.109%
2. LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 27.812% 51.626% 79.438% 19.999% 0.563%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 6.439% 21.001% 27.440% 66.425% 6.135%
4. RubiChess 20230419 0.026% 0.469% 0.495% 6.312% 93.193%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 49.175%
2. LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 22.900%
3. Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 KomodoDragon 3.2 16.156%
4. LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 KomodoDragon 3.2 4.843%
5. KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 3.991%
6. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 2.440%
7. Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 RubiChess 20230419 0.392%
8. LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 RubiChess 20230419 0.069%
9. RubiChess 20230419 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 0.013%
10. RubiChess 20230419 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 0.011%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 72.075%
2. KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 20.147%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 7.283%
4. RubiChess 20230419 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 0.405%
5. LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 RubiChess 20230419 0.080%
6. KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230419 0.010%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.02h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-05-26 17:14 5 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-26 18:16 6 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-26 19:17 7 RubiChess 20230419 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-26 20:19 8 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-26 21:20 9 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-26 22:22 10 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-26 23:23 11 RubiChess 20230419 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-27 00:25 12 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000
2023-05-27 01:26 13 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-27 02:28 14 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000
2023-05-27 03:29 15 RubiChess 20230419 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000
2023-05-27 04:31 16 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-27 05:32 17 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-27 06:34 18 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-27 07:35 19 RubiChess 20230419 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-27 08:37 20 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-27 09:38 21 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-27 10:40 22 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-27 11:41 23 RubiChess 20230419 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-27 12:42 24 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000
2023-05-27 13:44 25 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-27 14:45 26 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000
2023-05-27 15:47 27 RubiChess 20230419 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000
2023-05-27 16:48 28 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-27 17:50 29 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-27 18:51 30 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-27 19:53 31 RubiChess 20230419 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-27 20:54 32 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-27 21:56 33 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-27 22:57 34 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-27 23:59 35 RubiChess 20230419 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-28 01:00 36 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000
2023-05-28 02:02 37 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-28 03:03 38 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000
2023-05-28 04:05 39 RubiChess 20230419 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000
2023-05-28 05:06 40 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-28 06:08 41 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-28 07:09 42 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-28 08:10 43 RubiChess 20230419 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-28 09:12 44 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-28 10:13 45 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000 RubiChess 20230419
2023-05-28 11:15 46 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505
2023-05-28 12:16 47 RubiChess 20230419 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-05-28 13:18 48 Stockfish dev-20230507-65e21505 LCZero 0.31-dag-1f90473-T1-4000000