For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | 9. | 10. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Velvet 5.2.0 | 55.456% | 27.888% | 83.344% | 11.134% | 3.849% | 1.169% | 0.378% | 0.099% | 0.025% | 0.002% | ||||
| 2. | Wasp 6.53 | 28.566% | 36.384% | 64.950% | 19.998% | 8.977% | 3.943% | 1.460% | 0.488% | 0.151% | 0.033% | ||||
| 3. | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | 9.450% | 16.223% | 25.673% | 23.293% | 18.841% | 13.190% | 8.877% | 5.588% | 3.238% | 1.296% | 0.004% | |||
| 4. | Halogen 11.4.1 | 4.636% | 10.371% | 15.007% | 18.704% | 20.746% | 17.357% | 12.655% | 8.664% | 4.904% | 1.943% | 0.020% | |||
| 5. | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | 1.143% | 5.561% | 6.704% | 14.571% | 21.186% | 21.739% | 16.476% | 11.074% | 5.939% | 2.296% | 0.015% | |||
| 6. | Winter 2.04b | 0.365% | 1.718% | 2.083% | 5.559% | 11.223% | 16.472% | 20.482% | 20.314% | 15.653% | 8.153% | 0.061% | |||
| 7. | Stash 34.9 | 0.237% | 1.244% | 1.481% | 4.476% | 9.454% | 15.154% | 20.760% | 23.086% | 18.196% | 7.330% | 0.063% | |||
| 8. | Drofa 4.0.4 | 0.136% | 0.556% | 0.692% | 1.924% | 4.544% | 8.189% | 13.105% | 18.751% | 26.739% | 25.515% | 0.541% | |||
| 9. | Nemorino 6.11 | 0.011% | 0.055% | 0.066% | 0.341% | 1.180% | 2.786% | 5.804% | 11.913% | 25.005% | 51.623% | 1.282% | |||
| 10. | Cheese 3.1.1 | 0.001% | 0.003% | 0.023% | 0.150% | 1.809% | 98.014% |
Top promotions
| Pos | 1. | 2. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Velvet 5.2.0 | Wasp 6.53 | 31.059% |
| 2. | Wasp 6.53 | Velvet 5.2.0 | 19.508% |
| 3. | Velvet 5.2.0 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | 11.094% |
| 4. | Velvet 5.2.0 | Halogen 11.4.1 | 6.885% |
| 5. | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Velvet 5.2.0 | 5.103% |
| 6. | Wasp 6.53 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | 4.418% |
| 7. | Velvet 5.2.0 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | 4.104% |
| 8. | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Wasp 6.53 | 3.228% |
| 9. | Wasp 6.53 | Halogen 11.4.1 | 2.688% |
| 10. | Halogen 11.4.1 | Velvet 5.2.0 | 2.415% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. | Velvet 5.2.0 | Wasp 6.53 | 50.567% |
| 2. | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Velvet 5.2.0 | 16.197% |
| 3. | Halogen 11.4.1 | Velvet 5.2.0 | 9.300% |
| 4. | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Wasp 6.53 | 7.646% |
| 5. | Velvet 5.2.0 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | 4.628% |
| 6. | Halogen 11.4.1 | Wasp 6.53 | 4.179% |
| 7. | Wasp 6.53 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | 1.432% |
| 8. | Velvet 5.2.0 | Winter 2.04b | 1.274% |
| 9. | Halogen 11.4.1 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | 1.178% |
| 10. | Stash 34.9 | Velvet 5.2.0 | 0.926% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC | No | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-31 09:54 | 6 | Cheese 3.1.1 | Winter 2.04b |
| 2023-05-31 10:56 | 7 | Stash 34.9 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d |
| 2023-05-31 11:58 | 8 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Nemorino 6.11 |
| 2023-05-31 13:00 | 9 | Drofa 4.0.4 | Velvet 5.2.0 |
| 2023-05-31 14:02 | 10 | Wasp 6.53 | Halogen 11.4.1 |
| 2023-05-31 15:04 | 11 | Halogen 11.4.1 | Cheese 3.1.1 |
| 2023-05-31 16:06 | 12 | Velvet 5.2.0 | Wasp 6.53 |
| 2023-05-31 17:08 | 13 | Nemorino 6.11 | Drofa 4.0.4 |
| 2023-05-31 18:10 | 14 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
| 2023-05-31 19:12 | 15 | Winter 2.04b | Stash 34.9 |
| 2023-05-31 20:14 | 16 | Cheese 3.1.1 | Stash 34.9 |
| 2023-05-31 21:16 | 17 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Winter 2.04b |
| 2023-05-31 22:18 | 18 | Drofa 4.0.4 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d |
| 2023-05-31 23:20 | 19 | Wasp 6.53 | Nemorino 6.11 |
| 2023-06-01 00:22 | 20 | Halogen 11.4.1 | Velvet 5.2.0 |
| 2023-06-01 01:24 | 21 | Velvet 5.2.0 | Cheese 3.1.1 |
| 2023-06-01 02:26 | 22 | Nemorino 6.11 | Halogen 11.4.1 |
| 2023-06-01 03:28 | 23 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Wasp 6.53 |
| 2023-06-01 04:30 | 24 | Winter 2.04b | Drofa 4.0.4 |
| 2023-06-01 05:32 | 25 | Stash 34.9 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
| 2023-06-01 06:34 | 26 | Cheese 3.1.1 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
| 2023-06-01 07:36 | 27 | Drofa 4.0.4 | Stash 34.9 |
| 2023-06-01 08:38 | 28 | Wasp 6.53 | Winter 2.04b |
| 2023-06-01 09:40 | 29 | Halogen 11.4.1 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d |
| 2023-06-01 10:42 | 30 | Velvet 5.2.0 | Nemorino 6.11 |
| 2023-06-01 11:44 | 31 | Nemorino 6.11 | Cheese 3.1.1 |
| 2023-06-01 12:46 | 32 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Velvet 5.2.0 |
| 2023-06-01 13:48 | 33 | Winter 2.04b | Halogen 11.4.1 |
| 2023-06-01 14:50 | 34 | Stash 34.9 | Wasp 6.53 |
| 2023-06-01 15:52 | 35 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Drofa 4.0.4 |
| 2023-06-01 16:54 | 36 | Cheese 3.1.1 | Drofa 4.0.4 |
| 2023-06-01 17:56 | 37 | Wasp 6.53 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
| 2023-06-01 18:58 | 38 | Halogen 11.4.1 | Stash 34.9 |
| 2023-06-01 20:00 | 39 | Velvet 5.2.0 | Winter 2.04b |
| 2023-06-01 21:02 | 40 | Nemorino 6.11 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d |
| 2023-06-01 22:04 | 41 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Cheese 3.1.1 |
| 2023-06-01 23:06 | 42 | Winter 2.04b | Nemorino 6.11 |
| 2023-06-02 00:08 | 43 | Stash 34.9 | Velvet 5.2.0 |
| 2023-06-02 01:10 | 44 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Halogen 11.4.1 |
| 2023-06-02 02:12 | 45 | Drofa 4.0.4 | Wasp 6.53 |
| 2023-06-02 03:14 | 46 | Cheese 3.1.1 | Wasp 6.53 |
| 2023-06-02 04:16 | 47 | Drofa 4.0.4 | Halogen 11.4.1 |
| 2023-06-02 05:18 | 48 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Velvet 5.2.0 |
| 2023-06-02 06:20 | 49 | Stash 34.9 | Nemorino 6.11 |
| 2023-06-02 07:22 | 50 | Winter 2.04b | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d |
| 2023-06-02 08:24 | 51 | Winter 2.04b | Cheese 3.1.1 |
| 2023-06-02 09:26 | 52 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Stash 34.9 |
| 2023-06-02 10:28 | 53 | Nemorino 6.11 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
| 2023-06-02 11:30 | 54 | Velvet 5.2.0 | Drofa 4.0.4 |
| 2023-06-02 12:32 | 55 | Halogen 11.4.1 | Wasp 6.53 |
| 2023-06-02 13:34 | 56 | Cheese 3.1.1 | Halogen 11.4.1 |
| 2023-06-02 14:36 | 57 | Wasp 6.53 | Velvet 5.2.0 |
| 2023-06-02 15:38 | 58 | Drofa 4.0.4 | Nemorino 6.11 |
| 2023-06-02 16:40 | 59 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d |
| 2023-06-02 17:42 | 60 | Stash 34.9 | Winter 2.04b |
| 2023-06-02 18:44 | 61 | Stash 34.9 | Cheese 3.1.1 |
| 2023-06-02 19:46 | 62 | Winter 2.04b | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
| 2023-06-02 20:48 | 63 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Drofa 4.0.4 |
| 2023-06-02 21:50 | 64 | Nemorino 6.11 | Wasp 6.53 |
| 2023-06-02 22:52 | 65 | Velvet 5.2.0 | Halogen 11.4.1 |
| 2023-06-02 23:54 | 66 | Cheese 3.1.1 | Velvet 5.2.0 |
| 2023-06-03 00:56 | 67 | Halogen 11.4.1 | Nemorino 6.11 |
| 2023-06-03 01:58 | 68 | Wasp 6.53 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d |
| 2023-06-03 03:00 | 69 | Drofa 4.0.4 | Winter 2.04b |
| 2023-06-03 04:02 | 70 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Stash 34.9 |
| 2023-06-03 05:04 | 71 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Cheese 3.1.1 |
| 2023-06-03 06:06 | 72 | Stash 34.9 | Drofa 4.0.4 |
| 2023-06-03 07:08 | 73 | Winter 2.04b | Wasp 6.53 |
| 2023-06-03 08:10 | 74 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Halogen 11.4.1 |
| 2023-06-03 09:12 | 75 | Nemorino 6.11 | Velvet 5.2.0 |
| 2023-06-03 10:14 | 76 | Cheese 3.1.1 | Nemorino 6.11 |
| 2023-06-03 11:16 | 77 | Velvet 5.2.0 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d |
| 2023-06-03 12:18 | 78 | Halogen 11.4.1 | Winter 2.04b |
| 2023-06-03 13:20 | 79 | Wasp 6.53 | Stash 34.9 |
| 2023-06-03 14:22 | 80 | Drofa 4.0.4 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
| 2023-06-03 15:24 | 81 | Drofa 4.0.4 | Cheese 3.1.1 |
| 2023-06-03 16:26 | 82 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Wasp 6.53 |
| 2023-06-03 17:28 | 83 | Stash 34.9 | Halogen 11.4.1 |
| 2023-06-03 18:30 | 84 | Winter 2.04b | Velvet 5.2.0 |
| 2023-06-03 19:32 | 85 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d | Nemorino 6.11 |
| 2023-06-03 20:34 | 86 | Cheese 3.1.1 | Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d |
| 2023-06-03 21:36 | 87 | Nemorino 6.11 | Winter 2.04b |
| 2023-06-03 22:38 | 88 | Velvet 5.2.0 | Stash 34.9 |
| 2023-06-03 23:40 | 89 | Halogen 11.4.1 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
| 2023-06-04 00:42 | 90 | Wasp 6.53 | Drofa 4.0.4 |