Jun 05 2023
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Revenge 20230515 52.433% 27.965% 80.398% 12.973% 4.469% 1.578% 0.437% 0.122% 0.020% 0.003%
2. RubiChess 20230419 24.089% 32.665% 56.754% 27.878% 10.431% 3.618% 1.034% 0.229% 0.049% 0.007%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 20.650% 29.412% 50.062% 30.305% 12.456% 4.690% 1.723% 0.533% 0.185% 0.041% 0.005%
4. SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 1.850% 6.060% 7.910% 16.230% 36.142% 20.986% 10.564% 5.023% 2.261% 0.723% 0.161%
5. Minic 3.33 0.738% 2.402% 3.140% 6.489% 15.632% 25.942% 23.172% 14.644% 7.394% 3.043% 0.544%
6. rofChade 3.017 0.180% 1.111% 1.291% 4.204% 12.420% 23.405% 24.899% 18.559% 10.403% 4.085% 0.734%
7. Marvin 6.2.0-a11 0.049% 0.231% 0.280% 1.086% 4.628% 9.966% 16.984% 22.150% 21.793% 16.597% 6.516%
8. Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d 0.010% 0.120% 0.130% 0.622% 2.743% 6.095% 11.823% 18.698% 22.974% 23.743% 13.172%
9. Velvet 5.2.0 0.001% 0.032% 0.033% 0.202% 0.997% 3.397% 8.313% 16.987% 27.109% 31.165% 11.797%
10. BlackMarlin 8.0dev 0.002% 0.002% 0.011% 0.082% 0.323% 1.051% 3.055% 7.812% 20.593% 67.071%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Revenge 20230515 RubiChess 20230419 25.243%
2. Revenge 20230515 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 21.992%
3. RubiChess 20230419 Revenge 20230515 14.731%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Revenge 20230515 11.851%
5. RubiChess 20230419 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 6.834%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 RubiChess 20230419 6.695%
7. Revenge 20230515 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 3.268%
8. RubiChess 20230419 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 1.535%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 1.223%
10. Revenge 20230515 Minic 3.33 1.130%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Revenge 20230515 RubiChess 20230419 39.974%
2. Revenge 20230515 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 33.843%
3. RubiChess 20230419 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 13.529%
4. Revenge 20230515 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 4.176%
5. RubiChess 20230419 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 2.014%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 1.599%
7. Minic 3.33 Revenge 20230515 1.501%
8. Minic 3.33 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 0.839%
9. Minic 3.33 RubiChess 20230419 0.711%
10. Revenge 20230515 rofChade 3.017 0.696%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.06h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-06-05 10:20 33 Minic 3.33 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-05 11:23 34 BlackMarlin 8.0dev SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-06-05 12:27 35 Marvin 6.2.0-a11 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d
2023-06-05 13:31 36 Velvet 5.2.0 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d
2023-06-05 14:35 37 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Marvin 6.2.0-a11
2023-06-05 15:39 38 Revenge 20230515 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-06-05 16:42 39 RubiChess 20230419 Minic 3.33
2023-06-05 17:46 40 rofChade 3.017 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-06-05 18:50 41 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Velvet 5.2.0
2023-06-05 19:54 42 Minic 3.33 rofChade 3.017
2023-06-05 20:58 43 BlackMarlin 8.0dev RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-05 22:01 44 Marvin 6.2.0-a11 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-05 23:05 45 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-06-06 00:09 46 Velvet 5.2.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-06-06 01:13 47 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d Revenge 20230515
2023-06-06 02:16 48 Marvin 6.2.0-a11 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-06 03:20 49 BlackMarlin 8.0dev rofChade 3.017
2023-06-06 04:24 50 Minic 3.33 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-06-06 05:28 51 Minic 3.33 Velvet 5.2.0
2023-06-06 06:32 52 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-06-06 07:35 53 rofChade 3.017 Marvin 6.2.0-a11
2023-06-06 08:39 54 RubiChess 20230419 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d
2023-06-06 09:43 55 Revenge 20230515 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-06-06 10:47 56 Velvet 5.2.0 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-06 11:51 57 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-06 12:54 58 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d rofChade 3.017
2023-06-06 13:58 59 Marvin 6.2.0-a11 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-06-06 15:02 60 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Minic 3.33
2023-06-06 16:06 61 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Velvet 5.2.0
2023-06-06 17:10 62 Minic 3.33 Marvin 6.2.0-a11
2023-06-06 18:13 63 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d
2023-06-06 19:17 64 rofChade 3.017 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-06-06 20:21 65 RubiChess 20230419 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-06 21:25 66 Velvet 5.2.0 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-06 22:28 67 Revenge 20230515 rofChade 3.017
2023-06-06 23:32 68 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-06-07 00:36 69 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d Minic 3.33
2023-06-07 01:40 70 Marvin 6.2.0-a11 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-06-07 02:44 71 Marvin 6.2.0-a11 Velvet 5.2.0
2023-06-07 03:47 72 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d
2023-06-07 04:51 73 Minic 3.33 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-06-07 05:55 74 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-07 06:59 75 rofChade 3.017 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-07 08:03 76 Velvet 5.2.0 rofChade 3.017
2023-06-07 09:06 77 RubiChess 20230419 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-06-07 10:10 78 Revenge 20230515 Minic 3.33
2023-06-07 11:14 79 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-06-07 12:18 80 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d Marvin 6.2.0-a11
2023-06-07 13:21 81 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d Velvet 5.2.0
2023-06-07 14:25 82 Marvin 6.2.0-a11 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-06-07 15:29 83 BlackMarlin 8.0dev Revenge 20230515
2023-06-07 16:33 84 Minic 3.33 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-07 17:37 85 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 rofChade 3.017
2023-06-07 18:40 86 Velvet 5.2.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10
2023-06-07 19:44 87 rofChade 3.017 Minic 3.33
2023-06-07 20:48 88 RubiChess 20230419 BlackMarlin 8.0dev
2023-06-07 21:52 89 Revenge 20230515 Marvin 6.2.0-a11
2023-06-07 22:56 90 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Smallbrain dev-20230322-7b7319d
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