For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e 48.926% 30.788% 79.714% 18.613% 1.609% 0.062% 0.002%
2. LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 28.880% 35.828% 64.708% 30.820% 4.319% 0.141% 0.011% 0.001%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 21.679% 30.714% 52.393% 39.614% 7.680% 0.285% 0.026% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Ethereal 14.15-frc 0.510% 2.626% 3.136% 10.450% 72.159% 10.855% 2.684% 0.695% 0.021%
5. RubiChess 20230419 0.003% 0.018% 0.021% 0.216% 5.461% 36.087% 31.353% 23.860% 3.002%
6. Stoofvlees II b4 0.002% 0.019% 0.021% 0.182% 5.207% 26.101% 31.379% 32.837% 4.273%
7. Berserk 20230311 0.007% 0.007% 0.105% 3.526% 25.848% 31.961% 32.556% 5.997%
8. Revenge 20230515 0.039% 0.621% 2.584% 10.050% 86.706%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 26.692%
2. Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e KomodoDragon 3.2 20.569%
3. LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e 18.196%
4. KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e 12.393%
5. LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 KomodoDragon 3.2 10.020%
6. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 8.945%
7. Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e Ethereal 14.15-frc 1.642%
8. LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 Ethereal 14.15-frc 0.651%
9. KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.15-frc 0.333%
10. Ethereal 14.15-frc Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e 0.197%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e 44.888%
2. KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e 32.962%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 18.965%
4. Ethereal 14.15-frc Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e 1.839%
5. Ethereal 14.15-frc LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 0.842%
6. Ethereal 14.15-frc KomodoDragon 3.2 0.455%
7. Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e Stoofvlees II b4 0.014%
8. RubiChess 20230419 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e 0.007%
9. LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 RubiChess 20230419 0.007%
10. KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230419 0.007%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-06-10 06:15 54 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.15-frc
2023-06-10 07:17 55 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-06-10 08:19 56 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-10 09:21 57 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e Revenge 20230515
2023-06-10 10:23 58 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-10 11:25 59 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-06-10 12:27 60 Berserk 20230311 Ethereal 14.15-frc
2023-06-10 13:29 61 Revenge 20230515 Ethereal 14.15-frc
2023-06-10 14:31 62 Stoofvlees II b4 Berserk 20230311
2023-06-10 15:33 63 RubiChess 20230419 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-06-10 16:35 64 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000
2023-06-10 17:37 65 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-10 18:39 66 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e
2023-06-10 19:41 67 Berserk 20230311 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-10 20:43 68 Ethereal 14.15-frc Stoofvlees II b4
2023-06-10 21:45 69 Revenge 20230515 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-06-10 22:47 70 RubiChess 20230419 Ethereal 14.15-frc
2023-06-10 23:49 71 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e Berserk 20230311
2023-06-11 00:51 72 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-06-11 01:53 73 KomodoDragon 3.2 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-11 02:55 74 Berserk 20230311 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000
2023-06-11 03:57 75 Ethereal 14.15-frc Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e
2023-06-11 04:59 76 Stoofvlees II b4 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-11 06:01 77 Revenge 20230515 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-11 07:03 78 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e Stoofvlees II b4
2023-06-11 08:05 79 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 Ethereal 14.15-frc
2023-06-11 09:07 80 KomodoDragon 3.2 Berserk 20230311
2023-06-11 10:10 81 Berserk 20230311 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-11 11:12 82 Ethereal 14.15-frc KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-06-11 12:14 83 Stoofvlees II b4 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000
2023-06-11 13:16 84 RubiChess 20230419 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e
2023-06-11 14:18 85 Revenge 20230515 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e
2023-06-11 15:20 86 RubiChess 20230419 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000
2023-06-11 16:22 87 Stoofvlees II b4 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-06-11 17:24 88 Ethereal 14.15-frc Berserk 20230311
2023-06-11 18:26 89 Ethereal 14.15-frc Revenge 20230515
2023-06-11 19:28 90 Berserk 20230311 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-06-11 20:30 91 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-11 21:32 92 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e
2023-06-11 22:34 93 Revenge 20230515 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000
2023-06-11 23:36 94 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-06-12 00:38 95 RubiChess 20230419 Berserk 20230311
2023-06-12 01:40 96 Stoofvlees II b4 Ethereal 14.15-frc
2023-06-12 02:42 97 Stoofvlees II b4 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-12 03:44 98 Ethereal 14.15-frc RubiChess 20230419
2023-06-12 04:46 99 Berserk 20230311 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e
2023-06-12 05:48 100 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000
2023-06-12 06:50 101 Revenge 20230515 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-06-12 07:52 102 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 Berserk 20230311
2023-06-12 08:54 103 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e Ethereal 14.15-frc
2023-06-12 09:56 104 RubiChess 20230419 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-06-12 10:58 105 RubiChess 20230419 Revenge 20230515
2023-06-12 12:00 106 Stoofvlees II b4 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e
2023-06-12 13:02 107 Ethereal 14.15-frc LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000
2023-06-12 14:04 108 Berserk 20230311 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-06-12 15:06 109 Revenge 20230515 Berserk 20230311
2023-06-12 16:08 110 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.15-frc
2023-06-12 17:10 111 LCZero 0.31-dag-590cd9ba-T1-4000000 Stoofvlees II b4
2023-06-12 18:12 112 Stockfish dev-20230528-7e9b131e RubiChess 20230419