Aug 07 2023
Off
For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Viridithas 11.0.0-dev 42.039% 29.236% 19.355% 7.227% 97.857% 1.820% 0.288% 0.032% 0.002% 0.001%
2. DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 37.690% 32.508% 19.942% 7.273% 97.413% 2.038% 0.522% 0.024% 0.003%
3. Clover 6.0.12 16.372% 26.608% 33.184% 17.320% 93.484% 5.206% 1.220% 0.083% 0.006% 0.001%
4. Caissa 1.11.2 3.324% 9.260% 19.484% 39.603% 71.671% 20.946% 6.020% 1.074% 0.233% 0.044% 0.012%
5. Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff 0.522% 2.067% 6.716% 22.562% 31.867% 44.945% 18.316% 3.765% 0.892% 0.173% 0.038% 0.004% 0.004%
6. Booot 7.2 0.053% 0.311% 1.247% 5.159% 6.770% 19.888% 49.577% 15.938% 5.394% 1.836% 0.505% 0.092% 0.091% 0.001%
7. Weiss 2.1-dev7 0.007% 0.051% 0.558% 0.616% 2.953% 11.517% 29.807% 23.569% 16.408% 10.441% 4.689% 4.200% 0.429% 0.054% 0.006%
8. Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a 0.001% 0.013% 0.169% 0.183% 1.183% 6.854% 24.236% 27.705% 20.189% 13.637% 6.013% 5.318% 0.587% 0.098% 0.010%
9. Winter 2.04b 0.001% 0.005% 0.078% 0.084% 0.533% 2.901% 12.048% 19.548% 26.815% 24.126% 13.945% 11.514% 2.040% 0.335% 0.052% 0.004%
10. Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 0.001% 0.003% 0.050% 0.054% 0.463% 2.486% 11.045% 17.764% 24.096% 28.333% 15.759% 13.333% 1.975% 0.393% 0.053% 0.005%
11. BlackCore 6.0.1 0.001% 0.001% 0.024% 0.297% 1.921% 4.705% 9.596% 19.196% 64.260% 44.830% 13.262% 4.564% 1.417% 0.172% 0.015%
12. Expositor 25.C 0.001% 0.001% 0.018% 0.106% 0.528% 2.121% 97.225% 10.807% 41.590% 27.161% 13.821% 3.313% 0.533%
13. Mr_Bob dev_20230422 0.001% 0.006% 0.039% 0.154% 0.756% 99.044% 4.943% 21.741% 30.896% 30.783% 8.806% 1.875%
14. Stash 34.23 0.003% 0.034% 0.157% 0.815% 98.991% 4.767% 16.703% 30.311% 33.910% 10.764% 2.536%
15. ChessFighter 3.16 0.002% 0.017% 99.981% 0.127% 1.060% 3.710% 11.789% 41.276% 42.019%
16. StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 0.003% 99.997% 0.066% 0.612% 2.478% 8.159% 35.660% 53.022%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Viridithas 11.0.0-dev DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Clover 6.0.12 Caissa 1.11.2 9.057%
2. DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Clover 6.0.12 Caissa 1.11.2 8.412%
3. Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Clover 6.0.12 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Caissa 1.11.2 6.189%
4. DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Clover 6.0.12 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Caissa 1.11.2 5.909%
5. Viridithas 11.0.0-dev DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Caissa 1.11.2 Clover 6.0.12 4.835%
6. Viridithas 11.0.0-dev DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Clover 6.0.12 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff 4.583%
7. DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Caissa 1.11.2 Clover 6.0.12 4.553%
8. DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Clover 6.0.12 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff 4.152%
9. Clover 6.0.12 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Caissa 1.11.2 3.973%
10. Clover 6.0.12 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Caissa 1.11.2 3.281%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Caissa 1.11.2 Clover 6.0.12 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev 61.195%
2. Clover 6.0.12 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff Viridithas 11.0.0-dev 22.985%
3. Caissa 1.11.2 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff Viridithas 11.0.0-dev 4.801%
4. Booot 7.2 Clover 6.0.12 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev 3.950%
5. Caissa 1.11.2 Clover 6.0.12 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff Viridithas 11.0.0-dev 1.692%
6. Caissa 1.11.2 Clover 6.0.12 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff 1.629%
7. Booot 7.2 Caissa 1.11.2 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev 1.145%
8. Booot 7.2 Caissa 1.11.2 Clover 6.0.12 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev 0.615%
9. Clover 6.0.12 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Weiss 2.1-dev7 0.478%
10. Booot 7.2 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff Viridithas 11.0.0-dev 0.352%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.02h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-08-07 09:11 134 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 ChessFighter 3.16
2023-08-07 10:12 135 Stash 34.23 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0
2023-08-07 11:13 136 Winter 2.04b Caissa 1.11.2
2023-08-07 12:15 137 Booot 7.2 Winter 2.04b
2023-08-07 13:16 138 Caissa 1.11.2 Stash 34.23
2023-08-07 14:18 139 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023
2023-08-07 15:19 140 ChessFighter 3.16 BlackCore 6.0.1
2023-08-07 16:21 141 Weiss 2.1-dev7 Clover 6.0.12
2023-08-07 17:22 142 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev
2023-08-07 18:23 143 Mr_Bob dev_20230422 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a
2023-08-07 19:25 144 Expositor 25.C Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff
2023-08-07 20:26 145 Expositor 25.C Booot 7.2
2023-08-07 21:28 146 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff Mr_Bob dev_20230422
2023-08-07 22:29 147 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a DeepSjeng 3.6 a16
2023-08-07 23:31 148 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Weiss 2.1-dev7
2023-08-08 00:32 149 Clover 6.0.12 ChessFighter 3.16
2023-08-08 01:34 150 BlackCore 6.0.1 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0
2023-08-08 02:35 151 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 Caissa 1.11.2
2023-08-08 03:36 152 Stash 34.23 Winter 2.04b
2023-08-08 04:38 153 Booot 7.2 Stash 34.23
2023-08-08 05:39 154 Winter 2.04b StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023
2023-08-08 06:41 155 Caissa 1.11.2 BlackCore 6.0.1
2023-08-08 07:42 156 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 Clover 6.0.12
2023-08-08 08:44 157 ChessFighter 3.16 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev
2023-08-08 09:45 158 Weiss 2.1-dev7 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a
2023-08-08 10:46 159 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff
2023-08-08 11:48 160 Mr_Bob dev_20230422 Expositor 25.C
2023-08-08 12:49 161 Mr_Bob dev_20230422 Booot 7.2
2023-08-08 13:51 162 Expositor 25.C DeepSjeng 3.6 a16
2023-08-08 14:52 163 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff Weiss 2.1-dev7
2023-08-08 15:54 164 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a ChessFighter 3.16
2023-08-08 16:55 165 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0
2023-08-08 17:57 166 Clover 6.0.12 Caissa 1.11.2
2023-08-08 18:58 167 BlackCore 6.0.1 Winter 2.04b
2023-08-08 19:59 168 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 Stash 34.23
2023-08-08 21:01 169 Booot 7.2 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023
2023-08-08 22:02 170 Stash 34.23 BlackCore 6.0.1
2023-08-08 23:04 171 Winter 2.04b Clover 6.0.12
2023-08-09 00:05 172 Caissa 1.11.2 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev
2023-08-09 01:07 173 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a
2023-08-09 02:08 174 ChessFighter 3.16 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff
2023-08-09 03:09 175 Weiss 2.1-dev7 Expositor 25.C
2023-08-09 04:11 176 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Mr_Bob dev_20230422
2023-08-09 05:12 177 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Booot 7.2
2023-08-09 06:14 178 Mr_Bob dev_20230422 Weiss 2.1-dev7
2023-08-09 07:15 179 Expositor 25.C ChessFighter 3.16
2023-08-09 08:17 180 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0
2023-08-09 09:18 181 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a Caissa 1.11.2
2023-08-09 10:19 182 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Winter 2.04b
2023-08-09 11:21 183 Clover 6.0.12 Stash 34.23
2023-08-09 12:22 184 BlackCore 6.0.1 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023
2023-08-09 13:24 185 Booot 7.2 BlackCore 6.0.1
2023-08-09 14:25 186 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 Clover 6.0.12
2023-08-09 15:27 187 Stash 34.23 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev
2023-08-09 16:28 188 Winter 2.04b Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a
2023-08-09 17:30 189 Caissa 1.11.2 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff
2023-08-09 18:31 190 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 Expositor 25.C
2023-08-09 19:32 191 ChessFighter 3.16 Mr_Bob dev_20230422
2023-08-09 20:34 192 Weiss 2.1-dev7 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16
2023-08-09 21:35 193 Weiss 2.1-dev7 Booot 7.2
2023-08-09 22:37 194 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 ChessFighter 3.16
2023-08-09 23:38 195 Mr_Bob dev_20230422 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0
2023-08-10 00:40 196 Expositor 25.C Caissa 1.11.2
2023-08-10 01:41 197 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff Winter 2.04b
2023-08-10 02:42 198 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a Stash 34.23
2023-08-10 03:44 199 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023
2023-08-10 04:45 200 Clover 6.0.12 BlackCore 6.0.1
2023-08-10 05:47 201 Booot 7.2 Clover 6.0.12
2023-08-10 06:48 202 BlackCore 6.0.1 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev
2023-08-10 07:50 203 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a
2023-08-10 08:51 204 Stash 34.23 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff
2023-08-10 09:53 205 Winter 2.04b Expositor 25.C
2023-08-10 10:54 206 Caissa 1.11.2 Mr_Bob dev_20230422
2023-08-10 11:55 207 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16
2023-08-10 12:57 208 ChessFighter 3.16 Weiss 2.1-dev7
2023-08-10 13:58 209 ChessFighter 3.16 Booot 7.2
2023-08-10 15:00 210 Weiss 2.1-dev7 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0
2023-08-10 16:01 211 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Caissa 1.11.2
2023-08-10 17:03 212 Mr_Bob dev_20230422 Winter 2.04b
2023-08-10 18:04 213 Expositor 25.C Stash 34.23
2023-08-10 19:05 214 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023
2023-08-10 20:07 215 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a BlackCore 6.0.1
2023-08-10 21:08 216 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Clover 6.0.12
2023-08-10 22:10 217 Booot 7.2 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev
2023-08-10 23:11 218 Clover 6.0.12 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a
2023-08-11 00:13 219 BlackCore 6.0.1 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff
2023-08-11 01:14 220 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 Expositor 25.C
2023-08-11 02:16 221 Stash 34.23 Mr_Bob dev_20230422
2023-08-11 03:17 222 Winter 2.04b DeepSjeng 3.6 a16
2023-08-11 04:18 223 Caissa 1.11.2 Weiss 2.1-dev7
2023-08-11 05:20 224 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 ChessFighter 3.16
2023-08-11 06:21 225 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 Booot 7.2
2023-08-11 07:23 226 ChessFighter 3.16 Caissa 1.11.2
2023-08-11 08:24 227 Weiss 2.1-dev7 Winter 2.04b
2023-08-11 09:26 228 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 Stash 34.23
2023-08-11 10:27 229 Mr_Bob dev_20230422 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023
2023-08-11 11:28 230 Expositor 25.C BlackCore 6.0.1
2023-08-11 12:30 231 Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff Clover 6.0.12
2023-08-11 13:31 232 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a Viridithas 11.0.0-dev
2023-08-11 14:33 233 Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a
2023-08-11 15:34 234 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff
2023-08-11 16:36 235 Clover 6.0.12 Expositor 25.C
2023-08-11 17:37 236 BlackCore 6.0.1 Mr_Bob dev_20230422
2023-08-11 18:39 237 StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 DeepSjeng 3.6 a16
2023-08-11 19:40 238 Stash 34.23 Weiss 2.1-dev7
2023-08-11 20:41 239 Winter 2.04b ChessFighter 3.16
2023-08-11 21:43 240 Caissa 1.11.2 Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0
Posted inBayesElo