For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27
Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 1-4. | 5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | 9. | 10. | 11-16. | 11. | 12. | 13. | 14. | 15. | 16. | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | 49.782% | 27.609% | 15.747% | 5.321% | 98.459% | 1.301% | 0.220% | 0.019% | 0.001% | ||||||||||||||
2. | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | 30.615% | 36.855% | 21.631% | 7.835% | 96.936% | 2.328% | 0.698% | 0.037% | 0.001% | ||||||||||||||
3. | Clover 6.0.12 | 15.856% | 24.591% | 34.726% | 18.159% | 93.332% | 5.226% | 1.323% | 0.111% | 0.007% | 0.001% | |||||||||||||
4. | Caissa 1.11.2 | 3.263% | 8.893% | 20.572% | 41.439% | 74.167% | 18.823% | 5.929% | 0.922% | 0.148% | 0.009% | 0.002% | ||||||||||||
5. | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | 0.388% | 1.531% | 5.423% | 19.528% | 26.870% | 43.082% | 23.698% | 4.971% | 1.127% | 0.214% | 0.038% | ||||||||||||
6. | Booot 7.2 | 0.096% | 0.513% | 1.846% | 7.032% | 9.487% | 24.331% | 47.401% | 13.999% | 4.039% | 0.640% | 0.089% | 0.014% | 0.014% | ||||||||||
7. | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a | 0.008% | 0.025% | 0.312% | 0.345% | 2.159% | 9.427% | 33.635% | 31.576% | 14.419% | 6.561% | 1.878% | 1.762% | 0.105% | 0.011% | |||||||||
8. | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | 0.027% | 0.343% | 0.370% | 2.524% | 9.588% | 32.458% | 29.180% | 15.753% | 8.203% | 1.924% | 1.772% | 0.140% | 0.012% | ||||||||||
9. | Winter 2.04b | 0.012% | 0.012% | 0.091% | 0.725% | 7.037% | 17.105% | 34.367% | 26.949% | 13.714% | 11.188% | 2.208% | 0.287% | 0.030% | 0.001% | |||||||||
10. | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 | 0.003% | 0.019% | 0.022% | 0.132% | 0.931% | 6.023% | 13.853% | 25.293% | 35.141% | 18.605% | 15.744% | 2.449% | 0.373% | 0.038% | 0.001% | ||||||||
11. | BlackCore 6.0.1 | 0.003% | 0.060% | 0.778% | 2.857% | 8.430% | 19.091% | 68.781% | 47.942% | 14.728% | 4.942% | 1.075% | 0.094% | |||||||||||
12. | Expositor 25.C | 0.007% | 0.081% | 0.651% | 2.514% | 96.747% | 12.767% | 46.632% | 24.472% | 10.894% | 1.719% | 0.263% | ||||||||||||
13. | Stash 34.23 | 0.003% | 0.025% | 0.199% | 1.177% | 98.596% | 6.645% | 21.232% | 40.274% | 24.472% | 4.947% | 1.026% | ||||||||||||
14. | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 | 0.024% | 0.232% | 99.744% | 2.097% | 11.582% | 25.036% | 44.000% | 13.583% | 3.446% | ||||||||||||||
15. | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 | 0.003% | 99.997% | 0.064% | 0.643% | 2.912% | 12.597% | 52.178% | 31.603% | |||||||||||||||
16. | ChessFighter 3.16 | 100.000% | 0.005% | 0.281% | 1.681% | 6.894% | 27.477% | 63.662% |
Top promotions
Pos | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Clover 6.0.12 | Caissa 1.11.2 | 11.829% |
2. | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Clover 6.0.12 | Caissa 1.11.2 | 7.906% |
3. | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Clover 6.0.12 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Caissa 1.11.2 | 7.301% |
4. | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Caissa 1.11.2 | Clover 6.0.12 | 6.424% |
5. | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Clover 6.0.12 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | 4.755% |
6. | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Clover 6.0.12 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Caissa 1.11.2 | 4.448% |
7. | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Caissa 1.11.2 | Clover 6.0.12 | 4.340% |
8. | Clover 6.0.12 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Caissa 1.11.2 | 3.823% |
9. | Clover 6.0.12 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Caissa 1.11.2 | 3.605% |
10. | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Clover 6.0.12 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | 3.129% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. | Caissa 1.11.2 | Clover 6.0.12 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | 63.734% |
2. | Clover 6.0.12 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | 19.111% |
3. | Booot 7.2 | Clover 6.0.12 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | 5.470% |
4. | Caissa 1.11.2 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | 4.284% |
5. | Booot 7.2 | Caissa 1.11.2 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | 1.805% |
6. | Caissa 1.11.2 | Clover 6.0.12 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | 1.643% |
7. | Booot 7.2 | Caissa 1.11.2 | Clover 6.0.12 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | 1.039% |
8. | Caissa 1.11.2 | Clover 6.0.12 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | 1.004% |
9. | Booot 7.2 | Caissa 1.11.2 | Clover 6.0.12 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | 0.378% |
10. | Booot 7.2 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | 0.352% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.02h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC | No | White | Black |
---|---|---|---|
2023-08-07 20:50 | 146 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 |
2023-08-07 21:51 | 147 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 |
2023-08-07 22:53 | 148 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
2023-08-07 23:54 | 149 | Clover 6.0.12 | ChessFighter 3.16 |
2023-08-08 00:55 | 150 | BlackCore 6.0.1 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 |
2023-08-08 01:56 | 151 | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 | Caissa 1.11.2 |
2023-08-08 02:57 | 152 | Stash 34.23 | Winter 2.04b |
2023-08-08 03:58 | 153 | Booot 7.2 | Stash 34.23 |
2023-08-08 05:00 | 154 | Winter 2.04b | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 |
2023-08-08 06:01 | 155 | Caissa 1.11.2 | BlackCore 6.0.1 |
2023-08-08 07:02 | 156 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 | Clover 6.0.12 |
2023-08-08 08:03 | 157 | ChessFighter 3.16 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev |
2023-08-08 09:04 | 158 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a |
2023-08-08 10:05 | 159 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff |
2023-08-08 11:07 | 160 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 | Expositor 25.C |
2023-08-08 12:08 | 161 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 | Booot 7.2 |
2023-08-08 13:09 | 162 | Expositor 25.C | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 |
2023-08-08 14:10 | 163 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
2023-08-08 15:11 | 164 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a | ChessFighter 3.16 |
2023-08-08 16:13 | 165 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 |
2023-08-08 17:14 | 166 | Clover 6.0.12 | Caissa 1.11.2 |
2023-08-08 18:15 | 167 | BlackCore 6.0.1 | Winter 2.04b |
2023-08-08 19:16 | 168 | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 | Stash 34.23 |
2023-08-08 20:17 | 169 | Booot 7.2 | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 |
2023-08-08 21:18 | 170 | Stash 34.23 | BlackCore 6.0.1 |
2023-08-08 22:20 | 171 | Winter 2.04b | Clover 6.0.12 |
2023-08-08 23:21 | 172 | Caissa 1.11.2 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev |
2023-08-09 00:22 | 173 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a |
2023-08-09 01:23 | 174 | ChessFighter 3.16 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff |
2023-08-09 02:24 | 175 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Expositor 25.C |
2023-08-09 03:26 | 176 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 |
2023-08-09 04:27 | 177 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Booot 7.2 |
2023-08-09 05:28 | 178 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
2023-08-09 06:29 | 179 | Expositor 25.C | ChessFighter 3.16 |
2023-08-09 07:30 | 180 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 |
2023-08-09 08:31 | 181 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a | Caissa 1.11.2 |
2023-08-09 09:33 | 182 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Winter 2.04b |
2023-08-09 10:34 | 183 | Clover 6.0.12 | Stash 34.23 |
2023-08-09 11:35 | 184 | BlackCore 6.0.1 | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 |
2023-08-09 12:36 | 185 | Booot 7.2 | BlackCore 6.0.1 |
2023-08-09 13:37 | 186 | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 | Clover 6.0.12 |
2023-08-09 14:38 | 187 | Stash 34.23 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev |
2023-08-09 15:40 | 188 | Winter 2.04b | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a |
2023-08-09 16:41 | 189 | Caissa 1.11.2 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff |
2023-08-09 17:42 | 190 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 | Expositor 25.C |
2023-08-09 18:43 | 191 | ChessFighter 3.16 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 |
2023-08-09 19:44 | 192 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 |
2023-08-09 20:46 | 193 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Booot 7.2 |
2023-08-09 21:47 | 194 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | ChessFighter 3.16 |
2023-08-09 22:48 | 195 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 |
2023-08-09 23:49 | 196 | Expositor 25.C | Caissa 1.11.2 |
2023-08-10 00:50 | 197 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | Winter 2.04b |
2023-08-10 01:51 | 198 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a | Stash 34.23 |
2023-08-10 02:53 | 199 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 |
2023-08-10 03:54 | 200 | Clover 6.0.12 | BlackCore 6.0.1 |
2023-08-10 04:55 | 201 | Booot 7.2 | Clover 6.0.12 |
2023-08-10 05:56 | 202 | BlackCore 6.0.1 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev |
2023-08-10 06:57 | 203 | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a |
2023-08-10 07:58 | 204 | Stash 34.23 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff |
2023-08-10 09:00 | 205 | Winter 2.04b | Expositor 25.C |
2023-08-10 10:01 | 206 | Caissa 1.11.2 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 |
2023-08-10 11:02 | 207 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 |
2023-08-10 12:03 | 208 | ChessFighter 3.16 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
2023-08-10 13:04 | 209 | ChessFighter 3.16 | Booot 7.2 |
2023-08-10 14:06 | 210 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 |
2023-08-10 15:07 | 211 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Caissa 1.11.2 |
2023-08-10 16:08 | 212 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 | Winter 2.04b |
2023-08-10 17:09 | 213 | Expositor 25.C | Stash 34.23 |
2023-08-10 18:10 | 214 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 |
2023-08-10 19:11 | 215 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a | BlackCore 6.0.1 |
2023-08-10 20:13 | 216 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Clover 6.0.12 |
2023-08-10 21:14 | 217 | Booot 7.2 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev |
2023-08-10 22:15 | 218 | Clover 6.0.12 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a |
2023-08-10 23:16 | 219 | BlackCore 6.0.1 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff |
2023-08-11 00:17 | 220 | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 | Expositor 25.C |
2023-08-11 01:18 | 221 | Stash 34.23 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 |
2023-08-11 02:20 | 222 | Winter 2.04b | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 |
2023-08-11 03:21 | 223 | Caissa 1.11.2 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
2023-08-11 04:22 | 224 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 | ChessFighter 3.16 |
2023-08-11 05:23 | 225 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 | Booot 7.2 |
2023-08-11 06:24 | 226 | ChessFighter 3.16 | Caissa 1.11.2 |
2023-08-11 07:26 | 227 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 | Winter 2.04b |
2023-08-11 08:27 | 228 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 | Stash 34.23 |
2023-08-11 09:28 | 229 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 |
2023-08-11 10:29 | 230 | Expositor 25.C | BlackCore 6.0.1 |
2023-08-11 11:30 | 231 | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff | Clover 6.0.12 |
2023-08-11 12:31 | 232 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev |
2023-08-11 13:33 | 233 | Booot 7.2 | Equisetum s_4.0.5a.NN_bogotense_a |
2023-08-11 14:34 | 234 | Viridithas 11.0.0-dev | Smallbrain dev-20230729-d652eff |
2023-08-11 15:35 | 235 | Clover 6.0.12 | Expositor 25.C |
2023-08-11 16:36 | 236 | BlackCore 6.0.1 | Mr_Bob dev_20230422 |
2023-08-11 17:37 | 237 | StockDory 1.0-ALPHA07292023 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a16 |
2023-08-11 18:38 | 238 | Stash 34.23 | Weiss 2.1-dev7 |
2023-08-11 19:40 | 239 | Winter 2.04b | ChessFighter 3.16 |
2023-08-11 20:41 | 240 | Caissa 1.11.2 | Mantissa 4.0.0-dev-0 |