Aug 27 2023
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. RubiChess 20230823 67.333% 22.606% 89.939% 6.608% 2.287% 0.775% 0.261% 0.093% 0.028% 0.009% 0.009%
2. Igel 3.5.5 23.921% 42.398% 66.319% 19.056% 8.154% 3.744% 1.665% 0.742% 0.244% 0.076% 0.067% 0.009%
3. rofChade 3.033 5.392% 18.103% 23.495% 28.713% 19.073% 12.364% 7.784% 4.708% 2.571% 1.292% 0.965% 0.287% 0.038% 0.002%
4. Revenge 20230815 1.214% 5.187% 6.401% 12.380% 17.759% 17.424% 15.419% 12.817% 9.696% 8.104% 5.470% 2.117% 0.451% 0.066%
5. Clover 6.0.7 0.713% 4.012% 4.725% 11.408% 15.955% 17.390% 16.698% 14.054% 10.652% 9.118% 5.957% 2.472% 0.602% 0.087%
6. Seer 20230703 0.867% 4.242% 5.109% 10.552% 15.489% 17.393% 17.032% 14.540% 10.923% 8.962% 5.967% 2.397% 0.525% 0.073%
7. Caissa 1.11.15 0.260% 1.769% 2.029% 5.752% 10.369% 13.909% 16.684% 18.370% 16.316% 16.571% 10.206% 4.716% 1.362% 0.287%
8. Minic 3.38 0.282% 1.528% 1.810% 4.748% 8.486% 11.952% 15.064% 17.535% 18.438% 21.967% 12.966% 6.740% 1.834% 0.427%
9. Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 0.014% 0.116% 0.130% 0.504% 1.512% 3.030% 5.342% 9.317% 15.835% 64.330% 27.052% 23.307% 10.339% 3.632%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 0.004% 0.039% 0.043% 0.269% 0.878% 1.875% 3.617% 6.522% 11.699% 75.097% 20.859% 29.993% 16.730% 7.515%
11. DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 0.006% 0.018% 0.071% 0.201% 0.615% 1.747% 97.342% 5.111% 14.053% 36.375% 41.803%
12. Fritz Valencia_1.01 0.004% 0.020% 0.073% 0.233% 0.687% 1.851% 97.132% 5.371% 13.909% 31.744% 46.108%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. RubiChess 20230823 Igel 3.5.5 39.710%
2. Igel 3.5.5 RubiChess 20230823 17.811%
3. RubiChess 20230823 rofChade 3.033 14.852%
4. RubiChess 20230823 Revenge 20230815 3.924%
5. RubiChess 20230823 Seer 20230703 3.241%
6. rofChade 3.033 RubiChess 20230823 3.026%
7. RubiChess 20230823 Clover 6.0.7 2.956%
8. Igel 3.5.5 rofChade 3.033 2.929%
9. rofChade 3.033 Igel 3.5.5 1.730%
10. RubiChess 20230823 Caissa 1.11.15 1.389%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Igel 3.5.5 RubiChess 20230823 57.521%
2. RubiChess 20230823 rofChade 3.033 17.878%
3. Igel 3.5.5 rofChade 3.033 4.659%
4. Revenge 20230815 RubiChess 20230823 4.571%
5. RubiChess 20230823 Seer 20230703 3.685%
6. Clover 6.0.7 RubiChess 20230823 3.356%
7. Caissa 1.11.15 RubiChess 20230823 1.519%
8. Igel 3.5.5 Revenge 20230815 1.304%
9. Minic 3.38 RubiChess 20230823 1.284%
10. Clover 6.0.7 Igel 3.5.5 1.064%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.07h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-08-27 22:53 90 Revenge 20230815 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-08-27 23:58 91 Igel 3.5.5 Revenge 20230815
2023-08-28 01:02 92 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Minic 3.38
2023-08-28 02:06 93 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 RubiChess 20230823
2023-08-28 03:10 94 rofChade 3.033 Seer 20230703
2023-08-28 04:14 95 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-08-28 05:18 96 Caissa 1.11.15 Clover 6.0.7
2023-08-28 06:22 97 Caissa 1.11.15 Igel 3.5.5
2023-08-28 07:27 98 Clover 6.0.7 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-08-28 08:31 99 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 rofChade 3.033
2023-08-28 09:35 100 Seer 20230703 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-08-28 10:39 101 RubiChess 20230823 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-08-28 11:43 102 Minic 3.38 Revenge 20230815
2023-08-28 12:47 103 Igel 3.5.5 Minic 3.38
2023-08-28 13:51 104 Revenge 20230815 RubiChess 20230823
2023-08-28 14:56 105 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Seer 20230703
2023-08-28 16:00 106 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-08-28 17:04 107 rofChade 3.033 Clover 6.0.7
2023-08-28 18:08 108 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-08-28 19:12 109 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Igel 3.5.5
2023-08-28 20:16 110 Caissa 1.11.15 rofChade 3.033
2023-08-28 21:20 111 Clover 6.0.7 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-08-28 22:25 112 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-08-28 23:29 113 Seer 20230703 Revenge 20230815
2023-08-29 00:33 114 RubiChess 20230823 Minic 3.38
2023-08-29 01:37 115 Igel 3.5.5 RubiChess 20230823
2023-08-29 02:41 116 Minic 3.38 Seer 20230703
2023-08-29 03:45 117 Revenge 20230815 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-08-29 04:49 118 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Clover 6.0.7
2023-08-29 05:53 119 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-08-29 06:58 120 rofChade 3.033 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-08-29 08:02 121 rofChade 3.033 Igel 3.5.5
2023-08-29 09:06 122 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-08-29 10:10 123 Caissa 1.11.15 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-08-29 11:14 124 Clover 6.0.7 Revenge 20230815
2023-08-29 12:18 125 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 Minic 3.38
2023-08-29 13:22 126 Seer 20230703 RubiChess 20230823
2023-08-29 14:27 127 Igel 3.5.5 Seer 20230703
2023-08-29 15:31 128 RubiChess 20230823 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-08-29 16:35 129 Minic 3.38 Clover 6.0.7
2023-08-29 17:39 130 Revenge 20230815 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-08-29 18:43 131 Fritz Valencia_1.01 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-08-29 19:47 132 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 rofChade 3.033
2023-08-29 20:51 133 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Igel 3.5.5
2023-08-29 21:56 134 Fritz Valencia_1.01 rofChade 3.033
2023-08-29 23:00 135 Revenge 20230815 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-08-30 00:04 136 Minic 3.38 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-08-30 01:08 137 RubiChess 20230823 Clover 6.0.7
2023-08-30 02:12 138 Seer 20230703 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-08-30 03:16 139 Igel 3.5.5 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-08-30 04:20 140 Clover 6.0.7 Seer 20230703
2023-08-30 05:25 141 Caissa 1.11.15 RubiChess 20230823
2023-08-30 06:29 142 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Minic 3.38
2023-08-30 07:33 143 rofChade 3.033 Revenge 20230815
2023-08-30 08:37 144 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-08-30 09:41 145 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Igel 3.5.5
2023-08-30 10:45 146 Revenge 20230815 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-08-30 11:49 147 Minic 3.38 rofChade 3.033
2023-08-30 12:54 148 RubiChess 20230823 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-08-30 13:58 149 Seer 20230703 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-08-30 15:02 150 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 Clover 6.0.7
2023-08-30 16:06 151 Igel 3.5.5 Clover 6.0.7
2023-08-30 17:10 152 Caissa 1.11.15 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-08-30 18:14 153 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Seer 20230703
2023-08-30 19:18 154 rofChade 3.033 RubiChess 20230823
2023-08-30 20:23 155 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Minic 3.38
2023-08-30 21:27 156 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Revenge 20230815
2023-08-30 22:31 157 Revenge 20230815 Igel 3.5.5
2023-08-30 23:35 158 Minic 3.38 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-08-31 00:39 159 RubiChess 20230823 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-08-31 01:43 160 Seer 20230703 rofChade 3.033
2023-08-31 02:47 161 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-08-31 03:52 162 Clover 6.0.7 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-08-31 04:56 163 Igel 3.5.5 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-08-31 06:00 164 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Clover 6.0.7
2023-08-31 07:04 165 rofChade 3.033 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-08-31 08:08 166 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Seer 20230703
2023-08-31 09:12 167 Fritz Valencia_1.01 RubiChess 20230823
2023-08-31 10:16 168 Revenge 20230815 Minic 3.38
2023-08-31 11:21 169 Minic 3.38 Igel 3.5.5
2023-08-31 12:25 170 RubiChess 20230823 Revenge 20230815
2023-08-31 13:29 171 Seer 20230703 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-08-31 14:33 172 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-08-31 15:37 173 Clover 6.0.7 rofChade 3.033
2023-08-31 16:41 174 Caissa 1.11.15 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-08-31 17:45 175 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-08-31 18:50 176 rofChade 3.033 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-08-31 19:54 177 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Clover 6.0.7
2023-08-31 20:58 178 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-08-31 22:02 179 Revenge 20230815 Seer 20230703
2023-08-31 23:06 180 Minic 3.38 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-01 00:10 181 RubiChess 20230823 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-01 01:14 182 Seer 20230703 Minic 3.38
2023-09-01 02:18 183 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 Revenge 20230815
2023-09-01 03:23 184 Clover 6.0.7 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-09-01 04:27 185 Caissa 1.11.15 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-09-01 05:31 186 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 rofChade 3.033
2023-09-01 06:35 187 Igel 3.5.5 rofChade 3.033
2023-09-01 07:39 188 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-09-01 08:43 189 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-09-01 09:47 190 Revenge 20230815 Clover 6.0.7
2023-09-01 10:52 191 Minic 3.38 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-09-01 11:56 192 RubiChess 20230823 Seer 20230703
2023-09-01 13:00 193 Seer 20230703 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-01 14:04 194 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-01 15:08 195 Clover 6.0.7 Minic 3.38
2023-09-01 16:12 196 Caissa 1.11.15 Revenge 20230815
2023-09-01 17:16 197 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-09-01 18:21 198 rofChade 3.033 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-09-01 19:25 199 Igel 3.5.5 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-09-01 20:29 200 rofChade 3.033 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-09-01 21:33 201 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Revenge 20230815
2023-09-01 22:37 202 Caissa 1.11.15 Minic 3.38
2023-09-01 23:41 203 Clover 6.0.7 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-02 00:45 204 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 Seer 20230703
2023-09-02 01:50 205 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-02 02:54 206 Seer 20230703 Clover 6.0.7
2023-09-02 03:58 207 RubiChess 20230823 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-09-02 05:02 208 Minic 3.38 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-09-02 06:06 209 Revenge 20230815 rofChade 3.033
2023-09-02 07:10 210 Fritz Valencia_1.01 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-09-02 08:14 211 Igel 3.5.5 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-09-02 09:19 212 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Revenge 20230815
2023-09-02 10:23 213 rofChade 3.033 Minic 3.38
2023-09-02 11:27 214 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-02 12:31 215 Caissa 1.11.15 Seer 20230703
2023-09-02 13:35 216 Clover 6.0.7 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-09-02 14:39 217 Clover 6.0.7 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-02 15:43 218 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-09-02 16:48 219 Seer 20230703 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-09-02 17:52 220 RubiChess 20230823 rofChade 3.033
2023-09-02 18:56 221 Minic 3.38 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-09-02 20:00 222 Revenge 20230815 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-09-02 21:04 223 Igel 3.5.5 Revenge 20230815
2023-09-02 22:08 224 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Minic 3.38
2023-09-02 23:12 225 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-03 00:17 226 rofChade 3.033 Seer 20230703
2023-09-03 01:21 227 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-09-03 02:25 228 Caissa 1.11.15 Clover 6.0.7
2023-09-03 03:29 229 Caissa 1.11.15 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-03 04:33 230 Clover 6.0.7 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-09-03 05:37 231 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 rofChade 3.033
2023-09-03 06:41 232 Seer 20230703 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-09-03 07:46 233 RubiChess 20230823 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-09-03 08:50 234 Minic 3.38 Revenge 20230815
2023-09-03 09:54 235 Igel 3.5.5 Minic 3.38
2023-09-03 10:58 236 Revenge 20230815 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-03 12:02 237 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Seer 20230703
2023-09-03 13:06 238 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-09-03 14:10 239 rofChade 3.033 Clover 6.0.7
2023-09-03 15:15 240 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-09-03 16:19 241 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-03 17:23 242 Caissa 1.11.15 rofChade 3.033
2023-09-03 18:27 243 Clover 6.0.7 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-09-03 19:31 244 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-09-03 20:35 245 Seer 20230703 Revenge 20230815
2023-09-03 21:39 246 RubiChess 20230823 Minic 3.38
2023-09-03 22:43 247 Igel 3.5.5 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-03 23:48 248 Minic 3.38 Seer 20230703
2023-09-04 00:52 249 Revenge 20230815 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-09-04 01:56 250 Fritz Valencia_1.01 Clover 6.0.7
2023-09-04 03:00 251 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-09-04 04:04 252 rofChade 3.033 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-09-04 05:08 253 rofChade 3.033 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-04 06:12 254 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11
2023-09-04 07:17 255 Caissa 1.11.15 Fritz Valencia_1.01
2023-09-04 08:21 256 Clover 6.0.7 Revenge 20230815
2023-09-04 09:25 257 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2 Minic 3.38
2023-09-04 10:29 258 Seer 20230703 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-04 11:33 259 Igel 3.5.5 Seer 20230703
2023-09-04 12:37 260 RubiChess 20230823 Viridithas 11.0.0-dev2
2023-09-04 13:41 261 Minic 3.38 Clover 6.0.7
2023-09-04 14:46 262 Revenge 20230815 Caissa 1.11.15
2023-09-04 15:50 263 Fritz Valencia_1.01 DeepSjeng 3.6 a24
2023-09-04 16:54 264 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.11 rofChade 3.033
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