Sep 21 2023
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 99.782% 0.218% 100.000%
2. LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 0.216% 90.967% 8.808% 0.009% 100.000%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 0.002% 8.813% 89.834% 1.312% 99.961% 0.039%
4. Ethereal 14.24 0.002% 1.231% 75.632% 76.865% 20.316% 2.643% 0.176% 0.176%
5. RubiChess 20230823 0.125% 20.851% 20.976% 62.472% 13.981% 2.571% 2.567% 0.004%
6. Stoofvlees II b5 0.002% 1.941% 1.943% 13.351% 60.594% 24.112% 24.081% 0.031%
7. Igel 3.5.5 0.255% 0.255% 3.821% 22.779% 73.145% 72.914% 0.231%
8. SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 0.001% 0.003% 99.996% 0.262% 99.734%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.24 68.623%
2. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230823 18.998%
3. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Ethereal 14.24 6.829%
4. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 RubiChess 20230823 1.787%
5. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b5 1.771%
6. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Ethereal 14.24 KomodoDragon 3.2 1.195%
7. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2 Igel 3.5.5 0.229%
8. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stoofvlees II b5 0.164%
9. LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.24 0.164%
10. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 RubiChess 20230823 KomodoDragon 3.2 0.110%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 14.24 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 76.826%
2. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 RubiChess 20230823 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 20.939%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Stoofvlees II b5 1.941%
4. Igel 3.5.5 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 0.255%
5. Ethereal 14.24 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 RubiChess 20230823 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 0.037%
6. Ethereal 14.24 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Stoofvlees II b5 0.002%

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.03h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-09-21 09:12 186 Stoofvlees II b5 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-21 11:14 187 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-21 13:16 188 RubiChess 20230823 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-21 15:18 189 Igel 3.5.5 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-21 17:20 190 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-21 19:22 191 Ethereal 14.24 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-21 21:24 192 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-21 23:26 193 Stoofvlees II b5 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-22 01:28 194 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-22 03:30 195 RubiChess 20230823 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-22 05:32 196 KomodoDragon 3.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-22 07:34 197 Igel 3.5.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-22 09:36 198 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-22 11:38 199 RubiChess 20230823 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-22 13:40 200 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-22 15:42 201 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-22 17:44 202 Stoofvlees II b5 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-22 19:46 203 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-22 21:48 204 Ethereal 14.24 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-22 23:51 205 Igel 3.5.5 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-23 01:53 206 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-23 03:55 207 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-23 05:57 208 RubiChess 20230823 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-23 07:59 209 RubiChess 20230823 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-23 10:01 210 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-23 12:03 211 Stoofvlees II b5 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-23 14:05 212 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-23 16:07 213 Igel 3.5.5 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-23 18:09 214 Ethereal 14.24 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-23 20:11 215 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-23 22:13 216 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-24 00:15 217 KomodoDragon 3.2 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-24 02:17 218 RubiChess 20230823 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-24 04:19 219 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-24 06:21 220 Stoofvlees II b5 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-24 08:23 221 Igel 3.5.5 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-24 10:25 222 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-24 12:27 223 Ethereal 14.24 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-24 14:29 224 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-24 16:31 225 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-24 18:33 226 Ethereal 14.24 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-24 20:35 227 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-24 22:37 228 Stoofvlees II b5 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-25 00:39 229 Igel 3.5.5 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-25 02:41 230 RubiChess 20230823 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-25 04:43 231 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-25 06:45 232 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-25 08:47 233 Ethereal 14.24 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-25 10:49 234 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-25 12:51 235 Stoofvlees II b5 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-25 14:53 236 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-25 16:55 237 Igel 3.5.5 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-25 18:57 238 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-25 20:59 239 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-25 23:01 240 Ethereal 14.24 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-26 01:03 241 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-26 03:05 242 Stoofvlees II b5 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-26 05:07 243 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-26 07:09 244 RubiChess 20230823 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-26 09:11 245 Igel 3.5.5 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-26 11:13 246 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-26 13:15 247 Ethereal 14.24 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-26 15:17 248 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-26 17:19 249 Stoofvlees II b5 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-26 19:21 250 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-26 21:23 251 RubiChess 20230823 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-26 23:25 252 KomodoDragon 3.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-27 01:27 253 Igel 3.5.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-27 03:29 254 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-27 05:31 255 RubiChess 20230823 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-27 07:33 256 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-27 09:35 257 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-27 11:37 258 Stoofvlees II b5 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-27 13:39 259 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-27 15:41 260 Ethereal 14.24 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-27 17:43 261 Igel 3.5.5 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-27 19:45 262 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-27 21:47 263 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-27 23:49 264 RubiChess 20230823 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-28 01:51 265 RubiChess 20230823 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-28 03:53 266 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-28 05:55 267 Stoofvlees II b5 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-28 07:57 268 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-28 09:59 269 Igel 3.5.5 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-28 12:01 270 Ethereal 14.24 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-28 14:03 271 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-28 16:05 272 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-28 18:08 273 KomodoDragon 3.2 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-28 20:10 274 RubiChess 20230823 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-28 22:12 275 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-29 00:14 276 Stoofvlees II b5 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-29 02:16 277 Igel 3.5.5 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-29 04:18 278 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-29 06:20 279 Ethereal 14.24 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-29 08:22 280 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-29 10:24 281 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-29 12:26 282 Ethereal 14.24 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-29 14:28 283 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-29 16:30 284 Stoofvlees II b5 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-29 18:32 285 Igel 3.5.5 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-29 20:34 286 RubiChess 20230823 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-29 22:36 287 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-30 00:38 288 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-30 02:40 289 Ethereal 14.24 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-30 04:42 290 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-09-30 06:44 291 Stoofvlees II b5 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-09-30 08:46 292 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-30 10:48 293 Igel 3.5.5 RubiChess 20230823
2023-09-30 12:50 294 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-09-30 14:52 295 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-09-30 16:54 296 Ethereal 14.24 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-09-30 18:56 297 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Igel 3.5.5
2023-09-30 20:58 298 Stoofvlees II b5 Ethereal 14.24
2023-09-30 23:00 299 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-01 01:02 300 RubiChess 20230823 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-10-01 03:04 301 Igel 3.5.5 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-10-01 05:06 302 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 RubiChess 20230823
2023-10-01 07:08 303 Ethereal 14.24 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-10-01 09:10 304 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-01 11:12 305 Stoofvlees II b5 Igel 3.5.5
2023-10-01 13:14 306 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-01 15:16 307 RubiChess 20230823 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-01 17:18 308 KomodoDragon 3.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-01 19:20 309 Igel 3.5.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-01 21:22 310 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-01 23:24 311 RubiChess 20230823 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-02 01:26 312 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-02 03:28 313 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Igel 3.5.5
2023-10-02 05:30 314 Stoofvlees II b5 RubiChess 20230823
2023-10-02 07:32 315 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-10-02 09:34 316 Ethereal 14.24 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-02 11:36 317 Igel 3.5.5 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-02 13:38 318 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-02 15:40 319 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-02 17:42 320 RubiChess 20230823 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-10-02 19:44 321 RubiChess 20230823 Igel 3.5.5
2023-10-02 21:46 322 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-10-02 23:48 323 Stoofvlees II b5 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-03 01:50 324 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-03 03:52 325 Igel 3.5.5 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-03 05:54 326 Ethereal 14.24 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-03 07:56 327 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-10-03 09:58 328 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230823
2023-10-03 12:00 329 KomodoDragon 3.2 Igel 3.5.5
2023-10-03 14:02 330 RubiChess 20230823 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-03 16:04 331 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-03 18:06 332 Stoofvlees II b5 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-03 20:08 333 Igel 3.5.5 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-03 22:10 334 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-10-04 00:12 335 Ethereal 14.24 RubiChess 20230823
2023-10-04 02:14 336 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 KomodoDragon 3.2
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