Oct 01 2023
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 100.000% 100.000%
2. LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 99.992% 0.008% 100.000%
3. KomodoDragon 3.2 0.008% 99.992% 100.000%
4. Ethereal 14.24 88.824% 88.824% 11.176%
5. RubiChess 20230823 11.176% 11.176% 88.815% 0.009%
6. Stoofvlees II b5 0.009% 97.984% 2.007% 2.007%
7. Igel 3.5.5 2.007% 97.993% 97.993%
8. SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.24 88.817%
2. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230823 11.175%
3. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Ethereal 14.24 0.007%
4. Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 RubiChess 20230823 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 14.24 KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 88.824%
2. KomodoDragon 3.2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 RubiChess 20230823 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 11.176%

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.06h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2023-10-01 09:43 300 RubiChess 20230823 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-10-01 11:46 301 Igel 3.5.5 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-10-01 13:50 302 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 RubiChess 20230823
2023-10-01 15:54 303 Ethereal 14.24 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-10-01 17:58 304 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-01 20:01 305 Stoofvlees II b5 Igel 3.5.5
2023-10-01 22:05 306 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-02 00:09 307 RubiChess 20230823 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-02 02:13 308 KomodoDragon 3.2 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-02 04:17 309 Igel 3.5.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-02 06:20 310 KomodoDragon 3.2 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-02 08:24 311 RubiChess 20230823 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-02 10:28 312 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-02 12:32 313 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Igel 3.5.5
2023-10-02 14:35 314 Stoofvlees II b5 RubiChess 20230823
2023-10-02 16:39 315 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-10-02 18:43 316 Ethereal 14.24 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-02 20:47 317 Igel 3.5.5 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-02 22:50 318 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-03 00:54 319 KomodoDragon 3.2 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-03 02:58 320 RubiChess 20230823 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-10-03 05:02 321 RubiChess 20230823 Igel 3.5.5
2023-10-03 07:05 322 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 KomodoDragon 3.2
2023-10-03 09:09 323 Stoofvlees II b5 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-03 11:13 324 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-03 13:17 325 Igel 3.5.5 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-03 15:20 326 Ethereal 14.24 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-03 17:24 327 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-10-03 19:28 328 KomodoDragon 3.2 RubiChess 20230823
2023-10-03 21:32 329 KomodoDragon 3.2 Igel 3.5.5
2023-10-03 23:35 330 RubiChess 20230823 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2
2023-10-04 01:39 331 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000 Ethereal 14.24
2023-10-04 03:43 332 Stoofvlees II b5 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6
2023-10-04 05:47 333 Igel 3.5.5 Stoofvlees II b5
2023-10-04 07:50 334 Stockfish dev-20230903-b25d68f6 LCZero 0.31-dag-5107404-T2-5230000
2023-10-04 09:54 335 Ethereal 14.24 RubiChess 20230823
2023-10-04 11:58 336 SlowChess Blitz 2.9 avx2 KomodoDragon 3.2
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