Feb 19 2024
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 1-32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48.
1. LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 70.319% 29.681% 100.000%
2. Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a 29.681% 70.319% 100.000%
3. KomodoDragon 3.3 100.000% 100.000%
4. RubiChess 20240112 99.643% 0.357% 100.000%
5. Ethereal 14.28 99.643% 0.357% 100.000%
6. Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 94.004% 5.996% 100.000%
7. Seer 20240111 65.226% 34.279% 0.495% 100.000%
8. Obsidian dev-9.35 0.357% 5.639% 27.846% 37.099% 10.475% 18.584% 100.000%
9. Igel 3.5.5 14.550% 67.064% 18.386% 100.000%
10. DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 14.550% 67.064% 18.381% 0.005% 100.000%
11. Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 77.585% 22.415% 100.000%
12. ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 14.550% 4.034% 63.030% 18.386% 100.000%
13. Stoofvlees II b5 14.550% 67.064% 18.386% 100.000%
14. Weiss 2.1-dev10 14.550% 67.064% 18.386% 100.000%
15. Caissa 1.16.2 14.550% 66.788% 18.662% 100.000%
16. Clover 6.1.6 14.826% 66.788% 18.386% 100.000%
17. Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 0.932% 14.072% 7.416% 14.550% 63.030% 100.000%
18. rofChade 3.103 100.000% 100.000%
19. Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 100.000% 100.000%
20. Minic 3.40 100.000% 100.000%
21. Willow 3.1_dev 100.000% 100.000%
22. Booot 7.2 100.000% 100.000%
23. Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d 100.000% 100.000%
24. Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 100.000% 100.000%
25. Velvet 6.0.0 100.000% 100.000%
26. Revenge 20231112 100.000% 100.000%
27. akimbo 0.8.0 98.497% 1.403% 0.100% 100.000%
28. Marvin 6.3.0-4 1.327% 92.777% 5.896% 100.000%
29. Altair 6.1.3 0.176% 5.820% 94.004% 100.000%
30. Ginkgo 4.0 100.000% 100.000%
31. Tucano 11.14 100.000% 100.000%
32. Texel 1.11 100.000% 100.000%
33. Expositor WK16+1159 100.000%
34. Counter 5.5 100.000%
35. BlackMarlin 8.0 100.000%
36. Stash 35.6 100.000%
37. Winter 2.07e 100.000%
38. Wasp 6.65c 100.000%
39. ChessFighter 3.17 100.000%
40. Mr_Bob dev-20240115 100.000%
41. Avalanche 2.1.0 100.000%
42. ice4 4 100.000%
43. StockDory Starfish-0.1 100.000%
44. Cheng 4.44_dev 100.000%
45. 4ku 4.0 100.000%
46. Cheese 3.2.0 100.000%
47. Bagatur 3.7e 100.000%
48. STRO4K 2.1 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32.
1. LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Seer 20240111 Obsidian dev-9.35 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 akimbo 0.8.0 Marvin 6.3.0-4 Altair 6.1.3 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 36.872%
2. LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Obsidian dev-9.35 Seer 20240111 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 akimbo 0.8.0 Marvin 6.3.0-4 Altair 6.1.3 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 21.452%
3. Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Seer 20240111 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 Obsidian dev-9.35 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 akimbo 0.8.0 Marvin 6.3.0-4 Altair 6.1.3 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 14.550%
4. Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Seer 20240111 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 Obsidian dev-9.35 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 akimbo 0.8.0 Marvin 6.3.0-4 Altair 6.1.3 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 9.781%
5. LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Obsidian dev-9.35 Seer 20240111 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 akimbo 0.8.0 Marvin 6.3.0-4 Altair 6.1.3 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 5.999%
6. LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Obsidian dev-9.35 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Seer 20240111 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 akimbo 0.8.0 Altair 6.1.3 Marvin 6.3.0-4 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 4.430%
7. Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Seer 20240111 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 Obsidian dev-9.35 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 akimbo 0.8.0 Marvin 6.3.0-4 Altair 6.1.3 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 3.796%
8. LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Obsidian dev-9.35 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Seer 20240111 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 akimbo 0.8.0 Altair 6.1.3 Marvin 6.3.0-4 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 1.114%
9. Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 Seer 20240111 Obsidian dev-9.35 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 Marvin 6.3.0-4 akimbo 0.8.0 Altair 6.1.3 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 0.694%
10. Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 KomodoDragon 3.3 RubiChess 20240112 Ethereal 14.28 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Obsidian dev-9.35 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 Seer 20240111 Igel 3.5.5 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Stoofvlees II b5 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 rofChade 3.103 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Minic 3.40 Willow 3.1_dev Booot 7.2 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Velvet 6.0.0 Revenge 20231112 Marvin 6.3.0-4 akimbo 0.8.0 Altair 6.1.3 Ginkgo 4.0 Tucano 11.14 Texel 1.11 0.395%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Altair 6.1.3 Arasan 24.1_3dc7872 Berserk 20240114_tcec-swiss6 Booot 7.2 Caissa 1.16.2 Clover 6.1.6 DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 Equisetum s_4.1.1_NN_variegatum_d Ethereal 14.28 Ginkgo 4.0 Igel 3.5.5 KomodoDragon 3.3 LCZero 0.31-dag-a487796-BT3-2860000 Marvin 6.3.0-4 Minic 3.40 Obsidian dev-9.35 Revenge 20231112 RubiChess 20240112 ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 Seer 20240111 Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a Stoofvlees II b5 Stormphrax 4.0.8-tcec_8c37ad4 Texel 1.11 Tucano 11.14 Uralochka 3.41.dev1-avx512 Velvet 6.0.0 Viridithas 12.0.0-dev3 Weiss 2.1-dev10 Willow 3.1_dev akimbo 0.8.0 rofChade 3.103 100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.14h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2024-02-19 22:59 575 Obsidian dev-9.35 Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a
2024-02-20 00:08 576 Stockfish dev-20240114-b5e8169a Obsidian dev-9.35
Posted inBayesElo