For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 1-5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | 9. | 10-12. | 10. | 11. | 12. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Berserk 20240324 | 95.606% | 4.384% | 0.010% | 100.000% | |||||||||||||||
| 2. | Obsidian dev-11.15 | 4.390% | 91.104% | 4.303% | 0.170% | 0.032% | 99.999% | 0.001% | ||||||||||||
| 3. | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 0.004% | 4.204% | 69.490% | 16.653% | 6.029% | 96.380% | 2.314% | 0.908% | 0.300% | 0.084% | 0.014% | 0.014% | |||||||
| 4. | Arasan 096645a | 0.131% | 12.594% | 31.861% | 22.849% | 67.435% | 15.745% | 9.416% | 4.655% | 2.078% | 0.671% | 0.610% | 0.052% | 0.009% | ||||||
| 5. | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | 0.103% | 5.898% | 20.792% | 22.894% | 49.687% | 20.172% | 14.757% | 8.650% | 4.603% | 2.131% | 1.890% | 0.216% | 0.025% | ||||||
| 6. | Velvet 7.1.0 | 0.061% | 4.642% | 15.828% | 20.190% | 40.721% | 19.757% | 16.312% | 11.737% | 7.293% | 4.180% | 3.654% | 0.479% | 0.047% | ||||||
| 7. | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | 0.012% | 2.396% | 9.839% | 15.714% | 27.961% | 18.228% | 18.755% | 15.829% | 11.746% | 7.481% | 6.560% | 0.838% | 0.083% | ||||||
| 8. | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | 0.194% | 1.746% | 4.380% | 6.320% | 8.725% | 14.748% | 20.914% | 23.683% | 25.610% | 20.330% | 4.464% | 0.816% | |||||||
| 9. | Ginkgo 4.12 | 0.275% | 2.016% | 4.863% | 7.154% | 8.823% | 14.075% | 19.352% | 22.197% | 28.399% | 22.113% | 5.190% | 1.096% | |||||||
| 10. | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | 0.001% | 0.198% | 1.090% | 3.020% | 4.309% | 6.098% | 10.567% | 17.002% | 23.441% | 38.583% | 28.374% | 8.198% | 2.011% | ||||||
| 11. | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev | 0.001% | 0.011% | 0.012% | 0.060% | 0.185% | 0.717% | 2.254% | 96.772% | 8.011% | 41.586% | 47.175% | ||||||||
| 12. | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | 0.004% | 0.018% | 0.022% | 0.077% | 0.277% | 0.844% | 2.621% | 96.159% | 8.444% | 38.977% | 48.738% |
Top promotions
| Pos | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Arasan 096645a | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | 8.989% |
| 2. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Arasan 096645a | 7.473% |
| 3. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Arasan 096645a | Velvet 7.1.0 | 7.139% |
| 4. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Arasan 096645a | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | 5.845% |
| 5. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Velvet 7.1.0 | Arasan 096645a | 5.262% |
| 6. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Velvet 7.1.0 | 4.195% |
| 7. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Velvet 7.1.0 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | 3.994% |
| 8. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Arasan 096645a | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | 2.985% |
| 9. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | Arasan 096645a | 2.952% |
| 10. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | 2.697% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. | Arasan 096645a | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 24.648% |
| 2. | Arasan 096645a | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 19.183% |
| 3. | Arasan 096645a | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 13.162% |
| 4. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 11.566% |
| 5. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 6.551% |
| 6. | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 4.849% |
| 7. | Arasan 096645a | Berserk 20240324 | Ginkgo 4.12 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 2.970% |
| 8. | Arasan 096645a | Berserk 20240324 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 2.442% |
| 9. | Arasan 096645a | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 1.941% |
| 10. | Berserk 20240324 | Ginkgo 4.12 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | 1.759% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.17h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC | No | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-03 05:37 | 164 | Berserk 20240324 | Velvet 7.1.0 |
| 2024-04-03 06:47 | 165 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
| 2024-04-03 07:57 | 166 | Ginkgo 4.12 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev |
| 2024-04-03 09:07 | 167 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 |
| 2024-04-03 10:16 | 168 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev |
| 2024-04-03 11:26 | 169 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Arasan 096645a |
| 2024-04-03 12:36 | 170 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 |
| 2024-04-03 13:46 | 171 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev | Obsidian dev-11.15 |
| 2024-04-03 14:56 | 172 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Ginkgo 4.12 |
| 2024-04-03 16:06 | 173 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 |
| 2024-04-03 17:16 | 174 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | Berserk 20240324 |
| 2024-04-03 18:26 | 175 | Arasan 096645a | Berserk 20240324 |
| 2024-04-03 19:36 | 176 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 |
| 2024-04-03 20:46 | 177 | Ginkgo 4.12 | Velvet 7.1.0 |
| 2024-04-03 21:56 | 178 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
| 2024-04-03 23:06 | 179 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev |
| 2024-04-04 00:15 | 180 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 |
| 2024-04-04 01:25 | 181 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Arasan 096645a |
| 2024-04-04 02:35 | 182 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev |
| 2024-04-04 03:45 | 183 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 |
| 2024-04-04 04:55 | 184 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Obsidian dev-11.15 |
| 2024-04-04 06:05 | 185 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | Ginkgo 4.12 |
| 2024-04-04 07:15 | 186 | Berserk 20240324 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 |
| 2024-04-04 08:25 | 187 | Arasan 096645a | Marvin 6.3.0-5 |
| 2024-04-04 09:35 | 188 | Ginkgo 4.12 | Berserk 20240324 |
| 2024-04-04 10:45 | 189 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 |
| 2024-04-04 11:55 | 190 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | Velvet 7.1.0 |
| 2024-04-04 13:04 | 191 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
| 2024-04-04 14:14 | 192 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev |
| 2024-04-04 15:24 | 193 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev | Arasan 096645a |
| 2024-04-04 16:34 | 194 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 |
| 2024-04-04 17:44 | 195 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev |
| 2024-04-04 18:54 | 196 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 |
| 2024-04-04 20:04 | 197 | Berserk 20240324 | Obsidian dev-11.15 |
| 2024-04-04 21:14 | 198 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | Ginkgo 4.12 |
| 2024-04-04 22:24 | 199 | Arasan 096645a | Ginkgo 4.12 |
| 2024-04-04 23:34 | 200 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | Obsidian dev-11.15 |
| 2024-04-05 00:44 | 201 | Berserk 20240324 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 |
| 2024-04-05 01:54 | 202 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev |
| 2024-04-05 03:03 | 203 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 |
| 2024-04-05 04:13 | 204 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev |
| 2024-04-05 05:23 | 205 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Arasan 096645a |
| 2024-04-05 06:33 | 206 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev | Velvet 7.1.0 |
| 2024-04-05 07:43 | 207 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 |
| 2024-04-05 08:53 | 208 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Berserk 20240324 |
| 2024-04-05 10:03 | 209 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 |
| 2024-04-05 11:13 | 210 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Ginkgo 4.12 |
| 2024-04-05 12:23 | 211 | Arasan 096645a | Obsidian dev-11.15 |
| 2024-04-05 13:33 | 212 | Ginkgo 4.12 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 |
| 2024-04-05 14:43 | 213 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev |
| 2024-04-05 15:53 | 214 | Berserk 20240324 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 |
| 2024-04-05 17:02 | 215 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev |
| 2024-04-05 18:12 | 216 | Velvet 7.1.0 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
| 2024-04-05 19:22 | 217 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Arasan 096645a |
| 2024-04-05 20:32 | 218 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 |
| 2024-04-05 21:42 | 219 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev | Berserk 20240324 |
| 2024-04-05 22:52 | 220 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 |
| 2024-04-06 00:02 | 221 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Ginkgo 4.12 |
| 2024-04-06 01:12 | 222 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | Obsidian dev-11.15 |
| 2024-04-06 02:22 | 223 | Arasan 096645a | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 |
| 2024-04-06 03:32 | 224 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev |
| 2024-04-06 04:42 | 225 | Ginkgo 4.12 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 |
| 2024-04-06 05:52 | 226 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev |
| 2024-04-06 07:01 | 227 | Berserk 20240324 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
| 2024-04-06 08:11 | 228 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | Velvet 7.1.0 |
| 2024-04-06 09:21 | 229 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | Arasan 096645a |
| 2024-04-06 10:31 | 230 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Berserk 20240324 |
| 2024-04-06 11:41 | 231 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 |
| 2024-04-06 12:51 | 232 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev | Ginkgo 4.12 |
| 2024-04-06 14:01 | 233 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Obsidian dev-11.15 |
| 2024-04-06 15:11 | 234 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 |
| 2024-04-06 16:21 | 235 | Arasan 096645a | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev |
| 2024-04-06 17:31 | 236 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 |
| 2024-04-06 18:41 | 237 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev |
| 2024-04-06 19:50 | 238 | Ginkgo 4.12 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
| 2024-04-06 21:00 | 239 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | Velvet 7.1.0 |
| 2024-04-06 22:10 | 240 | Berserk 20240324 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 |
| 2024-04-06 23:20 | 241 | Berserk 20240324 | Arasan 096645a |
| 2024-04-07 00:30 | 242 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 |
| 2024-04-07 01:40 | 243 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Ginkgo 4.12 |
| 2024-04-07 02:50 | 244 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Obsidian dev-11.15 |
| 2024-04-07 04:00 | 245 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 |
| 2024-04-07 05:10 | 246 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev |
| 2024-04-07 06:20 | 247 | Arasan 096645a | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 |
| 2024-04-07 07:30 | 248 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev |
| 2024-04-07 08:40 | 249 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
| 2024-04-07 09:49 | 250 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Velvet 7.1.0 |
| 2024-04-07 10:59 | 251 | Ginkgo 4.12 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 |
| 2024-04-07 12:09 | 252 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | Berserk 20240324 |
| 2024-04-07 13:19 | 253 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 | Arasan 096645a |
| 2024-04-07 14:29 | 254 | Berserk 20240324 | Ginkgo 4.12 |
| 2024-04-07 15:39 | 255 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 | Obsidian dev-11.15 |
| 2024-04-07 16:49 | 256 | Velvet 7.1.0 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 |
| 2024-04-07 17:59 | 257 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev |
| 2024-04-07 19:09 | 258 | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 |
| 2024-04-07 20:19 | 259 | Arasan 096645a | BlackMarlin 9.0-dev |
| 2024-04-07 21:29 | 260 | Stormphrax 4.1.5_5623fa8 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
| 2024-04-07 22:39 | 261 | Viridithas 13.0.0-dev | Velvet 7.1.0 |
| 2024-04-07 23:48 | 262 | Uralochka 3.41.dev4-avx512 | DeepSjeng 3.6 a30 |
| 2024-04-08 00:58 | 263 | Obsidian dev-11.15 | Berserk 20240324 |
| 2024-04-08 02:08 | 264 | Ginkgo 4.12 | Marvin 6.3.0-5 |