For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Berserk 13 47.800% 21.851% 69.651% 12.716% 7.693% 4.795% 2.734% 1.427% 0.588% 0.396% 0.258% 0.104% 0.028% 0.006%
2. Igel 3.5.5 17.190% 21.185% 38.375% 18.217% 14.837% 11.393% 7.920% 4.661% 2.395% 2.202% 1.284% 0.637% 0.235% 0.046%
3. Seer 2.8.0 12.350% 16.792% 29.142% 16.909% 15.295% 13.117% 10.253% 6.925% 4.043% 4.316% 2.318% 1.296% 0.548% 0.154%
4. Obsidian dev-11.24 10.248% 15.842% 26.090% 17.011% 15.719% 12.371% 8.915% 7.070% 5.567% 7.257% 3.746% 2.219% 1.030% 0.262%
5. rofChade 3.105 8.678% 13.481% 22.159% 15.191% 15.481% 14.415% 12.111% 8.565% 5.530% 6.548% 3.363% 1.944% 0.975% 0.266%
6. Caissa 1.17.10 1.102% 3.115% 4.217% 5.432% 7.978% 11.600% 15.585% 15.686% 13.601% 25.901% 10.977% 8.132% 4.971% 1.821%
7. Clover 6.1.23 1.041% 3.057% 4.098% 5.550% 8.134% 10.361% 11.280% 13.217% 14.356% 33.004% 13.070% 10.426% 6.858% 2.650%
8. Revenge 20240305 1.213% 3.154% 4.367% 5.386% 7.835% 9.406% 10.643% 12.681% 13.947% 35.735% 13.214% 11.253% 7.952% 3.316%
9. Viridithas 13.0.0-dev 0.129% 0.547% 0.676% 1.253% 2.431% 4.602% 7.806% 11.032% 13.695% 58.505% 16.315% 17.720% 15.983% 8.487%
10. Minic 3.40 0.171% 0.619% 0.790% 1.408% 2.680% 4.859% 7.961% 10.672% 13.145% 58.485% 15.411% 16.894% 16.613% 9.567%
11. Arasan 096645a 0.076% 0.345% 0.421% 0.905% 1.804% 2.782% 4.083% 6.579% 10.190% 73.236% 14.432% 19.107% 23.852% 15.845%
12. Velvet 7.3.0 0.002% 0.012% 0.014% 0.022% 0.113% 0.299% 0.709% 1.485% 2.943% 94.415% 5.612% 10.268% 20.955% 57.580%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Berserk 13 Igel 3.5.5 13.759%
2. Berserk 13 Seer 2.8.0 10.410%
3. Berserk 13 Obsidian dev-11.24 9.625%
4. Berserk 13 rofChade 3.105 7.927%
5. Igel 3.5.5 Berserk 13 7.716%
6. Seer 2.8.0 Berserk 13 5.133%
7. Obsidian dev-11.24 Berserk 13 4.190%
8. rofChade 3.105 Berserk 13 3.482%
9. Igel 3.5.5 Seer 2.8.0 2.885%
10. Igel 3.5.5 Obsidian dev-11.24 2.714%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Berserk 13 Igel 3.5.5 21.475%
2. Berserk 13 Seer 2.8.0 15.543%
3. Berserk 13 Obsidian dev-11.24 13.815%
4. Berserk 13 rofChade 3.105 11.409%
5. Igel 3.5.5 Seer 2.8.0 5.521%
6. Igel 3.5.5 Obsidian dev-11.24 4.921%
7. Igel 3.5.5 rofChade 3.105 4.093%
8. Obsidian dev-11.24 Seer 2.8.0 3.444%
9. Seer 2.8.0 rofChade 3.105 2.955%
10. Obsidian dev-11.24 rofChade 3.105 2.512%

Expected start time based on estimate of 0.98h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2024-04-09 19:16 6 Igel 3.5.5 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-09 20:15 7 Velvet 7.3.0 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-09 21:14 8 Berserk 13 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-09 22:13 9 Caissa 1.17.10 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-09 23:12 10 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-10 00:11 11 Minic 3.40 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-10 01:09 12 Revenge 20240305 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-10 02:08 13 Arasan 096645a Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-10 03:07 14 Obsidian dev-11.24 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-10 04:06 15 Clover 6.1.23 Minic 3.40
2024-04-10 05:05 16 rofChade 3.105 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-10 06:04 17 Igel 3.5.5 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-10 07:03 18 Seer 2.8.0 Berserk 13
2024-04-10 08:02 19 Velvet 7.3.0 Berserk 13
2024-04-10 09:01 20 Caissa 1.17.10 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-10 10:00 21 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-10 10:59 22 Minic 3.40 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-10 11:58 23 Revenge 20240305 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-10 12:57 24 Arasan 096645a Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-10 13:55 25 Obsidian dev-11.24 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-10 14:54 26 Clover 6.1.23 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-10 15:53 27 rofChade 3.105 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-10 16:52 28 Igel 3.5.5 Minic 3.40
2024-04-10 17:51 29 Seer 2.8.0 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-10 18:50 30 Berserk 13 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-10 19:49 31 Velvet 7.3.0 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-10 20:48 32 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Berserk 13
2024-04-10 21:47 33 Minic 3.40 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-10 22:46 34 Revenge 20240305 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-10 23:45 35 Arasan 096645a rofChade 3.105
2024-04-11 00:44 36 Obsidian dev-11.24 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-11 01:42 37 Clover 6.1.23 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-11 02:41 38 rofChade 3.105 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-11 03:40 39 Igel 3.5.5 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-11 04:39 40 Seer 2.8.0 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-11 05:38 41 Berserk 13 Minic 3.40
2024-04-11 06:37 42 Caissa 1.17.10 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-11 07:36 43 Velvet 7.3.0 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-11 08:35 44 Minic 3.40 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-11 09:34 45 Revenge 20240305 Berserk 13
2024-04-11 10:33 46 Arasan 096645a Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-11 11:32 47 Obsidian dev-11.24 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-11 12:31 48 Clover 6.1.23 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-11 13:30 49 rofChade 3.105 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-11 14:28 50 Igel 3.5.5 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-11 15:27 51 Seer 2.8.0 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-11 16:26 52 Berserk 13 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-11 17:25 53 Caissa 1.17.10 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-11 18:24 54 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Minic 3.40
2024-04-11 19:23 55 Velvet 7.3.0 Minic 3.40
2024-04-11 20:22 56 Revenge 20240305 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-11 21:21 57 Arasan 096645a Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-11 22:20 58 Obsidian dev-11.24 Berserk 13
2024-04-11 23:19 59 Clover 6.1.23 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-12 00:18 60 rofChade 3.105 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-12 01:17 61 Igel 3.5.5 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-12 02:16 62 Seer 2.8.0 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-12 03:14 63 Berserk 13 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-12 04:13 64 Caissa 1.17.10 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-12 05:12 65 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Arasan 096645a
2024-04-12 06:11 66 Minic 3.40 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-12 07:10 67 Velvet 7.3.0 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-12 08:09 68 Minic 3.40 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-12 09:08 69 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-12 10:07 70 Caissa 1.17.10 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-12 11:06 71 Berserk 13 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-12 12:05 72 Seer 2.8.0 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-12 13:04 73 Seer 2.8.0 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-12 14:03 74 Igel 3.5.5 Berserk 13
2024-04-12 15:01 75 rofChade 3.105 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-12 16:00 76 Clover 6.1.23 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-12 16:59 77 Obsidian dev-11.24 Minic 3.40
2024-04-12 17:58 78 Arasan 096645a Revenge 20240305
2024-04-12 18:57 79 Velvet 7.3.0 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-12 19:56 80 Revenge 20240305 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-12 20:55 81 Minic 3.40 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-12 21:54 82 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev rofChade 3.105
2024-04-12 22:53 83 Caissa 1.17.10 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-12 23:52 84 Berserk 13 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-13 00:51 85 Berserk 13 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-13 01:50 86 Seer 2.8.0 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-13 02:49 87 Igel 3.5.5 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-13 03:47 88 rofChade 3.105 Minic 3.40
2024-04-13 04:46 89 Clover 6.1.23 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-13 05:45 90 Obsidian dev-11.24 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-13 06:44 91 Velvet 7.3.0 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-13 07:43 92 Arasan 096645a Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-13 08:42 93 Revenge 20240305 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-13 09:41 94 Minic 3.40 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-13 10:40 95 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-13 11:39 96 Caissa 1.17.10 Berserk 13
2024-04-13 12:38 97 Caissa 1.17.10 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-13 13:37 98 Berserk 13 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-13 14:36 99 Seer 2.8.0 Minic 3.40
2024-04-13 15:35 100 Igel 3.5.5 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-13 16:33 101 rofChade 3.105 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-13 17:32 102 Clover 6.1.23 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-13 18:31 103 Velvet 7.3.0 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-13 19:30 104 Obsidian dev-11.24 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-13 20:29 105 Arasan 096645a Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-13 21:28 106 Revenge 20240305 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-13 22:27 107 Minic 3.40 Berserk 13
2024-04-13 23:26 108 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-14 00:25 109 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-14 01:24 110 Caissa 1.17.10 Minic 3.40
2024-04-14 02:23 111 Berserk 13 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-14 03:22 112 Seer 2.8.0 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-14 04:20 113 Igel 3.5.5 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-14 05:19 114 rofChade 3.105 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-14 06:18 115 Velvet 7.3.0 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-14 07:17 116 Clover 6.1.23 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-14 08:16 117 Obsidian dev-11.24 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-14 09:15 118 Arasan 096645a Berserk 13
2024-04-14 10:14 119 Revenge 20240305 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-14 11:13 120 Minic 3.40 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-14 12:12 121 Minic 3.40 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-14 13:11 122 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Revenge 20240305
2024-04-14 14:10 123 Caissa 1.17.10 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-14 15:09 124 Berserk 13 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-14 16:08 125 Seer 2.8.0 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-14 17:06 126 Igel 3.5.5 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-14 18:05 127 Velvet 7.3.0 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-14 19:04 128 rofChade 3.105 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-14 20:03 129 Clover 6.1.23 Berserk 13
2024-04-14 21:02 130 Obsidian dev-11.24 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-14 22:01 131 Arasan 096645a Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-14 23:00 132 Revenge 20240305 Minic 3.40
2024-04-14 23:59 133 Revenge 20240305 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-15 00:58 134 Arasan 096645a Minic 3.40
2024-04-15 01:57 135 Obsidian dev-11.24 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-15 02:56 136 Clover 6.1.23 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-15 03:55 137 rofChade 3.105 Berserk 13
2024-04-15 04:54 138 Igel 3.5.5 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-15 05:52 139 Velvet 7.3.0 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-15 06:51 140 Berserk 13 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-15 07:50 141 Caissa 1.17.10 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-15 08:49 142 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-15 09:48 143 Minic 3.40 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-15 10:47 144 Revenge 20240305 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-15 11:46 145 Arasan 096645a Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-15 12:45 146 Obsidian dev-11.24 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-15 13:44 147 Clover 6.1.23 Minic 3.40
2024-04-15 14:43 148 rofChade 3.105 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-15 15:42 149 Igel 3.5.5 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-15 16:41 150 Seer 2.8.0 Berserk 13
2024-04-15 17:40 151 Velvet 7.3.0 Berserk 13
2024-04-15 18:38 152 Caissa 1.17.10 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-15 19:37 153 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-15 20:36 154 Minic 3.40 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-15 21:35 155 Revenge 20240305 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-15 22:34 156 Arasan 096645a Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-15 23:33 157 Obsidian dev-11.24 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-16 00:32 158 Clover 6.1.23 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-16 01:31 159 rofChade 3.105 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-16 02:30 160 Igel 3.5.5 Minic 3.40
2024-04-16 03:29 161 Seer 2.8.0 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-16 04:28 162 Berserk 13 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-16 05:27 163 Velvet 7.3.0 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-16 06:25 164 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Berserk 13
2024-04-16 07:24 165 Minic 3.40 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-16 08:23 166 Revenge 20240305 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-16 09:22 167 Arasan 096645a rofChade 3.105
2024-04-16 10:21 168 Obsidian dev-11.24 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-16 11:20 169 Clover 6.1.23 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-16 12:19 170 rofChade 3.105 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-16 13:18 171 Igel 3.5.5 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-16 14:17 172 Seer 2.8.0 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-16 15:16 173 Berserk 13 Minic 3.40
2024-04-16 16:15 174 Caissa 1.17.10 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-16 17:14 175 Velvet 7.3.0 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-16 18:13 176 Minic 3.40 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-16 19:11 177 Revenge 20240305 Berserk 13
2024-04-16 20:10 178 Arasan 096645a Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-16 21:09 179 Obsidian dev-11.24 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-16 22:08 180 Clover 6.1.23 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-16 23:07 181 rofChade 3.105 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-17 00:06 182 Igel 3.5.5 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-17 01:05 183 Seer 2.8.0 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-17 02:04 184 Berserk 13 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-17 03:03 185 Caissa 1.17.10 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-17 04:02 186 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Minic 3.40
2024-04-17 05:01 187 Velvet 7.3.0 Minic 3.40
2024-04-17 06:00 188 Revenge 20240305 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-17 06:59 189 Arasan 096645a Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-17 07:57 190 Obsidian dev-11.24 Berserk 13
2024-04-17 08:56 191 Clover 6.1.23 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-17 09:55 192 rofChade 3.105 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-17 10:54 193 Igel 3.5.5 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-17 11:53 194 Seer 2.8.0 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-17 12:52 195 Berserk 13 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-17 13:51 196 Caissa 1.17.10 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-17 14:50 197 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Arasan 096645a
2024-04-17 15:49 198 Minic 3.40 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-17 16:48 199 Velvet 7.3.0 Revenge 20240305
2024-04-17 17:47 200 Minic 3.40 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-17 18:46 201 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-17 19:44 202 Caissa 1.17.10 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-17 20:43 203 Berserk 13 rofChade 3.105
2024-04-17 21:42 204 Seer 2.8.0 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-17 22:41 205 Seer 2.8.0 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-17 23:40 206 Igel 3.5.5 Berserk 13
2024-04-18 00:39 207 rofChade 3.105 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-18 01:38 208 Clover 6.1.23 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-18 02:37 209 Obsidian dev-11.24 Minic 3.40
2024-04-18 03:36 210 Arasan 096645a Revenge 20240305
2024-04-18 04:35 211 Velvet 7.3.0 Arasan 096645a
2024-04-18 05:34 212 Revenge 20240305 Obsidian dev-11.24
2024-04-18 06:33 213 Minic 3.40 Clover 6.1.23
2024-04-18 07:32 214 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev rofChade 3.105
2024-04-18 08:30 215 Caissa 1.17.10 Igel 3.5.5
2024-04-18 09:29 216 Berserk 13 Seer 2.8.0
2024-04-18 10:28 217 Berserk 13 Velvet 7.3.0
2024-04-18 11:27 218 Seer 2.8.0 Caissa 1.17.10
2024-04-18 12:26 219 Igel 3.5.5 Viridithas 13.0.0-dev
2024-04-18 13:25 220 rofChade 3.105 Minic 3.40