For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | 9-12. | 9. | 10. | 11. | 12. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Obsidian 14.05 | 57.737% | 30.839% | 88.576% | 11.324% | 0.100% | ||||||||||||||
| 2. | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | 29.570% | 39.605% | 69.175% | 29.929% | 0.896% | ||||||||||||||
| 3. | Caissa 1.21.1 | 12.683% | 29.317% | 42.000% | 54.746% | 3.233% | 0.021% | |||||||||||||
| 4. | RubiChess 20240817 | 0.010% | 0.239% | 0.249% | 3.981% | 89.558% | 4.970% | 0.941% | 0.227% | 0.062% | 0.012% | 0.009% | 0.003% | |||||||
| 5. | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 | 0.010% | 1.844% | 27.091% | 23.741% | 18.644% | 13.562% | 15.108% | 8.723% | 4.331% | 1.693% | 0.361% | ||||||||
| 6. | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 | 0.004% | 2.155% | 26.451% | 24.659% | 20.027% | 13.330% | 13.374% | 8.014% | 3.667% | 1.370% | 0.323% | ||||||||
| 7. | Igel 3.5.10 | 0.006% | 1.511% | 25.005% | 22.065% | 18.175% | 13.940% | 19.298% | 9.838% | 5.869% | 2.711% | 0.880% | ||||||||
| 8. | rofChade 3.201 | 0.457% | 8.385% | 12.643% | 16.881% | 20.341% | 41.293% | 17.706% | 12.229% | 7.587% | 3.771% | |||||||||
| 9. | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd | 0.190% | 5.765% | 9.953% | 13.912% | 17.112% | 53.068% | 18.942% | 16.291% | 12.226% | 5.609% | |||||||||
| 10. | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 | 0.039% | 1.465% | 3.423% | 6.429% | 10.429% | 78.215% | 16.114% | 23.276% | 22.645% | 16.180% | |||||||||
| 11. | Revenge 20241013 | 0.017% | 0.698% | 2.023% | 4.097% | 7.386% | 85.779% | 12.909% | 19.158% | 26.179% | 27.533% | |||||||||
| 12. | Devre 6.40 | 0.149% | 0.552% | 1.608% | 3.838% | 93.853% | 7.745% | 15.176% | 25.589% | 45.343% |
Top promotions
| Pos | 1. | 2. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Obsidian 14.05 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | 34.598% |
| 2. | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | Obsidian 14.05 | 23.165% |
| 3. | Obsidian 14.05 | Caissa 1.21.1 | 22.951% |
| 4. | Caissa 1.21.1 | Obsidian 14.05 | 7.671% |
| 5. | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | Caissa 1.21.1 | 6.365% |
| 6. | Caissa 1.21.1 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | 5.001% |
| 7. | Obsidian 14.05 | RubiChess 20240817 | 0.188% |
| 8. | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | RubiChess 20240817 | 0.040% |
| 9. | Caissa 1.21.1 | RubiChess 20240817 | 0.011% |
| 10. | RubiChess 20240817 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | 0.006% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | Obsidian 14.05 | 57.763% |
| 2. | Caissa 1.21.1 | Obsidian 14.05 | 30.622% |
| 3. | Caissa 1.21.1 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | 11.366% |
| 4. | Obsidian 14.05 | RubiChess 20240817 | 0.191% |
| 5. | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | RubiChess 20240817 | 0.046% |
| 6. | Caissa 1.21.1 | RubiChess 20240817 | 0.012% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC | No | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-20 22:23 | 191 | Devre 6.40 | Igel 3.5.10 |
| 2024-11-20 23:24 | 192 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | Caissa 1.21.1 |
| 2024-11-21 00:26 | 193 | Caissa 1.21.1 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 |
| 2024-11-21 01:28 | 194 | Igel 3.5.10 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 |
| 2024-11-21 02:29 | 195 | rofChade 3.201 | Devre 6.40 |
| 2024-11-21 03:31 | 196 | RubiChess 20240817 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 |
| 2024-11-21 04:32 | 197 | Revenge 20241013 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd |
| 2024-11-21 05:34 | 198 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 | Obsidian 14.05 |
| 2024-11-21 06:36 | 199 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 | Obsidian 14.05 |
| 2024-11-21 07:37 | 200 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd |
| 2024-11-21 08:39 | 201 | Revenge 20241013 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 |
| 2024-11-21 09:40 | 202 | RubiChess 20240817 | Devre 6.40 |
| 2024-11-21 10:42 | 203 | rofChade 3.201 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 |
| 2024-11-21 11:44 | 204 | Igel 3.5.10 | Caissa 1.21.1 |
| 2024-11-21 12:45 | 205 | Igel 3.5.10 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 |
| 2024-11-21 13:47 | 206 | Caissa 1.21.1 | rofChade 3.201 |
| 2024-11-21 14:48 | 207 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | RubiChess 20240817 |
| 2024-11-21 15:50 | 208 | Devre 6.40 | Revenge 20241013 |
| 2024-11-21 16:52 | 209 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 |
| 2024-11-21 17:53 | 210 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd | Obsidian 14.05 |
| 2024-11-21 18:55 | 211 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd |
| 2024-11-21 19:56 | 212 | Obsidian 14.05 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 |
| 2024-11-21 20:58 | 213 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 | Devre 6.40 |
| 2024-11-21 21:59 | 214 | Revenge 20241013 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 |
| 2024-11-21 23:01 | 215 | RubiChess 20240817 | Caissa 1.21.1 |
| 2024-11-22 00:03 | 216 | rofChade 3.201 | Igel 3.5.10 |
| 2024-11-22 01:04 | 217 | rofChade 3.201 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 |
| 2024-11-22 02:06 | 218 | Igel 3.5.10 | RubiChess 20240817 |
| 2024-11-22 03:07 | 219 | Caissa 1.21.1 | Revenge 20241013 |
| 2024-11-22 04:09 | 220 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 |
| 2024-11-22 05:11 | 221 | Devre 6.40 | Obsidian 14.05 |
| 2024-11-22 06:12 | 222 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd |
| 2024-11-22 07:14 | 223 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 |
| 2024-11-22 08:15 | 224 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd | Devre 6.40 |
| 2024-11-22 09:17 | 225 | Obsidian 14.05 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 |
| 2024-11-22 10:19 | 226 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 | Caissa 1.21.1 |
| 2024-11-22 11:20 | 227 | Revenge 20241013 | Igel 3.5.10 |
| 2024-11-22 12:22 | 228 | RubiChess 20240817 | rofChade 3.201 |
| 2024-11-22 13:23 | 229 | RubiChess 20240817 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 |
| 2024-11-22 14:25 | 230 | rofChade 3.201 | Revenge 20241013 |
| 2024-11-22 15:26 | 231 | Igel 3.5.10 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 |
| 2024-11-22 16:28 | 232 | Caissa 1.21.1 | Obsidian 14.05 |
| 2024-11-22 17:30 | 233 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd |
| 2024-11-22 18:31 | 234 | Devre 6.40 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 |
| 2024-11-22 19:33 | 235 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 | Devre 6.40 |
| 2024-11-22 20:34 | 236 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 |
| 2024-11-22 21:36 | 237 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd | Caissa 1.21.1 |
| 2024-11-22 22:38 | 238 | Obsidian 14.05 | Igel 3.5.10 |
| 2024-11-22 23:39 | 239 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 | rofChade 3.201 |
| 2024-11-23 00:41 | 240 | Revenge 20241013 | RubiChess 20240817 |
| 2024-11-23 01:42 | 241 | Revenge 20241013 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 |
| 2024-11-23 02:44 | 242 | RubiChess 20240817 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 |
| 2024-11-23 03:46 | 243 | rofChade 3.201 | Obsidian 14.05 |
| 2024-11-23 04:47 | 244 | Igel 3.5.10 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd |
| 2024-11-23 05:49 | 245 | Caissa 1.21.1 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 |
| 2024-11-23 06:50 | 246 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | Devre 6.40 |
| 2024-11-23 07:52 | 247 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 |
| 2024-11-23 08:53 | 248 | Devre 6.40 | Caissa 1.21.1 |
| 2024-11-23 09:55 | 249 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 | Igel 3.5.10 |
| 2024-11-23 10:57 | 250 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd | rofChade 3.201 |
| 2024-11-23 11:58 | 251 | Obsidian 14.05 | RubiChess 20240817 |
| 2024-11-23 13:00 | 252 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 | Revenge 20241013 |
| 2024-11-23 14:01 | 253 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 |
| 2024-11-23 15:03 | 254 | Revenge 20241013 | Obsidian 14.05 |
| 2024-11-23 16:05 | 255 | RubiChess 20240817 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd |
| 2024-11-23 17:06 | 256 | rofChade 3.201 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 |
| 2024-11-23 18:08 | 257 | Igel 3.5.10 | Devre 6.40 |
| 2024-11-23 19:09 | 258 | Caissa 1.21.1 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 |
| 2024-11-23 20:11 | 259 | Viridithas 16.0.0-dev-ca365809 | Caissa 1.21.1 |
| 2024-11-23 21:13 | 260 | Ceres 1.0_C1-640-25 | Igel 3.5.10 |
| 2024-11-23 22:14 | 261 | Devre 6.40 | rofChade 3.201 |
| 2024-11-23 23:16 | 262 | Uralochka 3.42.dev7-avx512 | RubiChess 20240817 |
| 2024-11-24 00:17 | 263 | PlentyChess 3.0.0-dev-5fe2d9cd | Revenge 20241013 |
| 2024-11-24 01:19 | 264 | Obsidian 14.05 | Stoofvlees II WCCC2024 |