May 01 2026
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
1. Minic 3.45 100.000% 100.000%
2. Sirius 3500426e 56.562% 42.944% 99.506% 0.494%
3. Wasp 7.15 42.691% 52.758% 95.449% 4.551%
4. Princhess 0.21.0-29-g27752c0 0.747% 4.298% 5.045% 67.365% 27.590%
5. Monty dev-20260425-0c70302e 27.590% 72.410%
6. Lynx 1.11.0-dev-e46d8141 100.000%
7. Bagatur 5.4 62.613% 37.387%
8. Cheese 3.3.2 37.387% 62.613%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Minic 3.45 Sirius 3500426e Wasp 7.15 52.716%
2. Minic 3.45 Wasp 7.15 Sirius 3500426e 42.239%
3. Minic 3.45 Sirius 3500426e Princhess 0.21.0-29-g27752c0 3.846%
4. Minic 3.45 Princhess 0.21.0-29-g27752c0 Sirius 3500426e 0.705%
5. Minic 3.45 Wasp 7.15 Princhess 0.21.0-29-g27752c0 0.452%
6. Minic 3.45 Princhess 0.21.0-29-g27752c0 Wasp 7.15 0.042%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Minic 3.45 Sirius 3500426e Wasp 7.15 94.955%
2. Minic 3.45 Princhess 0.21.0-29-g27752c0 Sirius 3500426e 4.551%
3. Minic 3.45 Princhess 0.21.0-29-g27752c0 Wasp 7.15 0.494%

Expected start time based on estimate of 0.99h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2026-05-01 22:14 55 Bagatur 5.4 Minic 3.45
2026-05-01 23:13 56 Wasp 7.15 Princhess 0.21.0-29-g27752c0
Posted inBayesElo