For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 3 games
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
7-8. |
|
7. |
8. |
1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
|
55.914% |
23.578% |
|
79.492% |
|
12.845% |
4.827% |
1.874% |
0.675% |
|
0.287% |
|
0.236% |
0.051% |
2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
|
22.675% |
33.488% |
|
56.163% |
|
26.058% |
10.468% |
4.521% |
1.897% |
|
0.893% |
|
0.724% |
0.169% |
3. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
|
18.330% |
31.227% |
|
49.557% |
|
30.801% |
11.800% |
4.829% |
2.025% |
|
0.988% |
|
0.785% |
0.203% |
4. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
|
1.641% |
5.112% |
|
6.753% |
|
10.051% |
18.045% |
19.787% |
18.708% |
|
26.656% |
|
15.568% |
11.088% |
5. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
0.490% |
2.117% |
|
2.607% |
|
6.854% |
20.192% |
21.431% |
19.846% |
|
29.070% |
|
16.760% |
12.310% |
6. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
0.657% |
2.623% |
|
3.280% |
|
7.200% |
17.763% |
20.772% |
20.085% |
|
30.900% |
|
17.817% |
13.083% |
7. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.143% |
1.035% |
|
1.178% |
|
3.639% |
9.872% |
15.628% |
20.453% |
|
49.230% |
|
24.825% |
24.405% |
8. |
rofChade 2.309 |
|
0.150% |
0.820% |
|
0.970% |
|
2.552% |
7.033% |
11.158% |
16.311% |
|
61.976% |
|
23.285% |
38.691% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
26.748% |
2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
22.311% |
3. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
12.028% |
4. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
10.068% |
5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
8.276% |
6. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
6.005% |
7. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
3.086% |
8. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
1.391% |
9. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
1.104% |
10. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.983% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
38.776% |
2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
32.379% |
3. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
14.281% |
4. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
3.872% |
5. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
1.715% |
6. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
1.421% |
7. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
1.336% |
8. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
1.281% |
9. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
0.796% |
10. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.755% |
Speculate Igel 3.0.5 – Pedone 20210528 1-0
eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 3 games
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
7-8. |
|
7. |
8. |
1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
|
63.901% |
22.094% |
|
85.995% |
|
10.039% |
2.804% |
0.887% |
0.214% |
|
0.061% |
|
0.056% |
0.005% |
2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
|
19.063% |
35.842% |
|
54.905% |
|
27.675% |
10.362% |
4.440% |
1.781% |
|
0.837% |
|
0.659% |
0.178% |
3. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
|
14.841% |
31.926% |
|
46.767% |
|
33.930% |
11.897% |
4.620% |
1.872% |
|
0.914% |
|
0.710% |
0.204% |
4. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
|
1.382% |
4.943% |
|
6.325% |
|
10.524% |
19.800% |
20.131% |
17.941% |
|
25.279% |
|
14.769% |
10.510% |
5. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
0.519% |
2.463% |
|
2.982% |
|
7.073% |
19.069% |
21.320% |
19.776% |
|
29.780% |
|
17.329% |
12.451% |
6. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
0.082% |
0.959% |
|
1.041% |
|
4.358% |
17.146% |
20.567% |
21.201% |
|
35.687% |
|
19.876% |
15.811% |
7. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.091% |
1.015% |
|
1.106% |
|
3.827% |
11.182% |
16.185% |
20.514% |
|
47.186% |
|
23.738% |
23.448% |
8. |
rofChade 2.309 |
|
0.121% |
0.758% |
|
0.879% |
|
2.574% |
7.740% |
11.850% |
16.701% |
|
60.256% |
|
22.863% |
37.393% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
31.067% |
2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
25.549% |
3. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
11.707% |
4. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
9.159% |
5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
5.951% |
6. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
4.345% |
7. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
3.544% |
8. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
1.573% |
9. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
0.839% |
10. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Igel 3.0.5 |
0.796% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
42.774% |
2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
34.708% |
3. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
10.296% |
4. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
4.340% |
5. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
1.857% |
6. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.988% |
7. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.904% |
8. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
0.874% |
9. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
0.802% |
10. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
rofChade 2.309 |
0.640% |
Speculate Igel 3.0.5 – Pedone 20210528 1/2-1/2
eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 3 games
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
7-8. |
|
7. |
8. |
1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
|
49.557% |
25.720% |
|
75.277% |
|
15.342% |
5.801% |
2.372% |
0.896% |
|
0.312% |
|
0.250% |
0.062% |
2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
|
26.284% |
31.472% |
|
57.756% |
|
24.162% |
10.448% |
4.672% |
1.960% |
|
1.002% |
|
0.765% |
0.237% |
3. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
|
20.721% |
30.467% |
|
51.188% |
|
29.030% |
11.577% |
4.981% |
2.125% |
|
1.099% |
|
0.859% |
0.240% |
4. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
0.493% |
2.720% |
|
3.213% |
|
8.416% |
23.127% |
22.453% |
19.495% |
|
23.296% |
|
14.517% |
8.779% |
5. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
|
1.866% |
5.091% |
|
6.957% |
|
9.856% |
17.181% |
19.666% |
19.156% |
|
27.184% |
|
15.808% |
11.376% |
6. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
0.760% |
2.682% |
|
3.442% |
|
7.279% |
16.337% |
20.247% |
20.395% |
|
32.300% |
|
18.560% |
13.740% |
7. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.146% |
1.055% |
|
1.201% |
|
3.447% |
9.199% |
15.047% |
20.272% |
|
50.834% |
|
25.659% |
25.175% |
8. |
rofChade 2.309 |
|
0.173% |
0.793% |
|
0.966% |
|
2.468% |
6.330% |
10.562% |
15.701% |
|
63.973% |
|
23.582% |
40.391% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
23.476% |
2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
19.519% |
3. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
13.173% |
4. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
10.959% |
5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
10.213% |
6. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
7.125% |
7. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2.678% |
8. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
1.526% |
9. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
1.227% |
10. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
1.213% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
36.649% |
2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
30.478% |
3. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
17.338% |
4. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
3.555% |
5. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
1.760% |
6. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
1.739% |
7. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
1.575% |
8. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
1.475% |
9. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.906% |
10. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
0.831% |
Speculate Igel 3.0.5 – Pedone 20210528 0-1
eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 3 games
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
7-8. |
|
7. |
8. |
1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
|
35.842% |
25.404% |
|
61.246% |
|
18.568% |
10.654% |
5.646% |
2.665% |
|
1.221% |
|
0.991% |
0.230% |
2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
|
31.658% |
28.470% |
|
60.128% |
|
20.735% |
10.421% |
5.138% |
2.398% |
|
1.180% |
|
0.927% |
0.253% |
3. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
|
26.122% |
28.798% |
|
54.920% |
|
24.316% |
11.574% |
5.474% |
2.454% |
|
1.262% |
|
0.987% |
0.275% |
4. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
2.450% |
6.842% |
|
9.292% |
|
14.474% |
25.175% |
20.990% |
15.396% |
|
14.673% |
|
9.880% |
4.793% |
5. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
|
2.403% |
5.304% |
|
7.707% |
|
9.031% |
14.814% |
19.292% |
19.951% |
|
29.205% |
|
17.116% |
12.089% |
6. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
0.998% |
3.145% |
|
4.143% |
|
7.261% |
14.348% |
19.510% |
21.056% |
|
33.682% |
|
19.469% |
14.213% |
7. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.259% |
1.129% |
|
1.388% |
|
3.172% |
7.663% |
13.971% |
20.609% |
|
53.197% |
|
26.648% |
26.549% |
8. |
rofChade 2.309 |
|
0.268% |
0.908% |
|
1.176% |
|
2.443% |
5.351% |
9.979% |
15.471% |
|
65.580% |
|
23.982% |
41.598% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
16.700% |
2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
13.944% |
3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
13.473% |
4. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
12.161% |
5. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
10.534% |
6. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
10.133% |
7. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2.347% |
8. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2.347% |
9. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2.007% |
10. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
1.865% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
28.861% |
2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
24.077% |
3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
24.007% |
4. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
3.214% |
5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2.906% |
6. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2.776% |
7. |
Pedone 20210528 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
2.766% |
8. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2.325% |
9. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2.157% |
10. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
1.386% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
10.0 |
16.74 |
1.66 |
1.91 |
51 |
24 |
14 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
10.0 |
15.88 |
1.57 |
2.54 |
25 |
31 |
23 |
11 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
RubiChess 2.2-dev/2.2-dev 128GiB/TCEC-S21 |
9.5 |
15.62 |
1.53 |
2.76 |
19 |
29 |
27 |
13 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
Pedone 20210528 |
7.5 |
13.37 |
1.58 |
5.12 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
14 |
5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
7.5 |
13.33 |
1.66 |
5.13 |
2 |
6 |
11 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
15 |
6 |
Nemorino 6.06/6.08 |
7.0 |
12.73 |
1.55 |
5.81 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
21 |
7 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
7.0 |
12.36 |
1.50 |
6.21 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
10 |
15 |
20 |
24 |
8 |
rofChade 2.309 |
6.5 |
11.96 |
1.66 |
6.52 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
16 |
23 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 3.80h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2021-06-16 03:36 |
67 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2021-06-16 07:24 |
68 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
rofChade 2.309 |
2021-06-16 11:12 |
69 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
rofChade 2.309 |
2021-06-16 15:00 |
70 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
2021-06-16 18:47 |
71 |
Pedone 20210528 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2021-06-16 22:35 |
72 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
2021-06-17 02:23 |
73 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
2021-06-17 06:11 |
74 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Ethereal 12.95 |
2021-06-17 09:59 |
75 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2021-06-17 13:47 |
76 |
rofChade 2.309 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2021-06-17 17:34 |
77 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2021-06-17 21:22 |
78 |
Pedone 20210528 |
rofChade 2.309 |
2021-06-18 01:10 |
79 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
2021-06-18 04:58 |
80 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2021-06-18 08:46 |
81 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
2021-06-18 12:34 |
82 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
2021-06-18 16:21 |
83 |
rofChade 2.309 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
2021-06-18 20:09 |
84 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2021-06-18 23:57 |
85 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2021-06-19 03:45 |
86 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
2021-06-19 07:33 |
87 |
rofChade 2.309 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
2021-06-19 11:21 |
88 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2021-06-19 15:08 |
89 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
2021-06-19 18:56 |
90 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
rofChade 2.309 |
2021-06-19 22:44 |
91 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2021-06-20 02:32 |
92 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2021-06-20 06:20 |
93 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
2021-06-20 10:07 |
94 |
Pedone 20210528 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
2021-06-20 13:55 |
95 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2021-06-20 17:43 |
96 |
rofChade 2.309 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
2021-06-20 21:31 |
97 |
rofChade 2.309 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
2021-06-21 01:19 |
98 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2021-06-21 05:07 |
99 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Pedone 20210528 |
2021-06-21 08:54 |
100 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
2021-06-21 12:42 |
101 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
2021-06-21 16:30 |
102 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2021-06-21 20:18 |
103 |
Pedone 20210528 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
2021-06-22 00:06 |
104 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
rofChade 2.309 |
2021-06-22 03:54 |
105 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
2021-06-22 07:41 |
106 |
rofChade 2.309 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2021-06-22 11:29 |
107 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
2021-06-22 15:17 |
108 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Igel 3.0.5 |
2021-06-22 19:05 |
109 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
2021-06-22 22:53 |
110 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
2021-06-23 02:41 |
111 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
rofChade 2.309 |
2021-06-23 06:28 |
112 |
Pedone 20210528 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |