For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27
Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | 9-12. | 9. | 10. | 11. | 12. | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | 59.433% | 30.533% | 89.966% | 6.775% | 2.090% | 0.780% | 0.270% | 0.094% | 0.023% | 0.002% | 0.002% | ||||||||
2. | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | 35.330% | 43.816% | 79.146% | 12.695% | 4.757% | 2.061% | 0.860% | 0.349% | 0.117% | 0.015% | 0.015% | ||||||||
3. | RubiChess 20220902 | 2.811% | 10.613% | 13.424% | 24.803% | 19.454% | 15.164% | 11.515% | 8.555% | 5.048% | 2.037% | 1.896% | 0.137% | 0.004% | ||||||
4. | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | 0.845% | 4.901% | 5.746% | 16.572% | 19.233% | 18.291% | 16.065% | 12.884% | 8.545% | 2.664% | 2.467% | 0.194% | 0.003% | ||||||
5. | Minic 3.30 | 0.421% | 3.012% | 3.433% | 12.549% | 16.820% | 18.032% | 17.540% | 15.471% | 11.021% | 5.134% | 4.693% | 0.429% | 0.012% | ||||||
6. | Seer 20220906 | 0.635% | 3.534% | 4.169% | 12.759% | 16.380% | 17.494% | 17.040% | 15.430% | 11.317% | 5.411% | 4.930% | 0.465% | 0.016% | ||||||
7. | Revenge 20220816 | 0.436% | 2.821% | 3.257% | 9.972% | 13.664% | 15.508% | 17.466% | 17.171% | 14.564% | 8.398% | 7.306% | 1.041% | 0.050% | 0.001% | |||||
8. | Koivisto 8.13 | 0.087% | 0.727% | 0.814% | 3.436% | 6.274% | 9.934% | 13.805% | 19.100% | 25.614% | 21.023% | 18.366% | 2.567% | 0.090% | ||||||
9. | Igel 3.1.4 | 0.002% | 0.043% | 0.045% | 0.431% | 1.309% | 2.654% | 5.200% | 10.116% | 20.650% | 59.595% | 43.859% | 14.214% | 1.507% | 0.015% | |||||
10. | Arasan v23.4.0 | 0.008% | 0.018% | 0.082% | 0.234% | 0.801% | 2.931% | 95.926% | 14.718% | 62.446% | 17.854% | 0.908% | ||||||||
11. | Fritz 18_Vienna | 0.001% | 0.005% | 0.029% | 0.170% | 99.795% | 1.743% | 17.880% | 73.211% | 6.961% | ||||||||||
12. | Nemorino 6.11 | 100.000% | 0.005% | 0.627% | 7.253% | 92.115% |
Top promotions
Pos | 1. | 2. | |
---|---|---|---|
1. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | 41.703% |
2. | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Berserk dev10_20220905 | 28.070% |
3. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | RubiChess 20220902 | 7.379% |
4. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | 3.398% |
5. | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | RubiChess 20220902 | 3.027% |
6. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Seer 20220906 | 2.325% |
7. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Revenge 20220816 | 2.081% |
8. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Minic 3.30 | 1.975% |
9. | RubiChess 20220902 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | 1.386% |
10. | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | 1.365% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | 69.773% |
2. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | RubiChess 20220902 | 8.765% |
3. | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | RubiChess 20220902 | 4.214% |
4. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | 3.776% |
5. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Seer 20220906 | 2.619% |
6. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Revenge 20220816 | 2.274% |
7. | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Minic 3.30 | 2.153% |
8. | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | 1.681% |
9. | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Seer 20220906 | 1.332% |
10. | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Minic 3.30 | 1.115% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.07h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC | No | White | Black |
---|---|---|---|
2022-09-15 07:34 | 143 | Fritz 18_Vienna | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-15 08:38 | 144 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-15 09:42 | 145 | Koivisto 8.13 | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-15 10:47 | 146 | RubiChess 20220902 | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-15 11:51 | 147 | Revenge 20220816 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2022-09-15 12:55 | 148 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-15 13:59 | 149 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-15 15:04 | 150 | Seer 20220906 | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-15 16:08 | 151 | Nemorino 6.11 | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-15 17:12 | 152 | Minic 3.30 | Seer 20220906 |
2022-09-15 18:17 | 153 | Arasan v23.4.0 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-15 19:21 | 154 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-15 20:25 | 155 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-15 21:30 | 156 | Koivisto 8.13 | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-15 22:34 | 157 | RubiChess 20220902 | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-15 23:38 | 158 | Revenge 20220816 | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-16 00:43 | 159 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-16 01:47 | 160 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2022-09-16 02:51 | 161 | Seer 20220906 | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-16 03:56 | 162 | Igel 3.1.4 | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-16 05:00 | 163 | Nemorino 6.11 | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-16 06:04 | 164 | Arasan v23.4.0 | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-16 07:09 | 165 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Seer 20220906 |
2022-09-16 08:13 | 166 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-16 09:17 | 167 | Koivisto 8.13 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-16 10:21 | 168 | RubiChess 20220902 | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-16 11:26 | 169 | Revenge 20220816 | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-16 12:30 | 170 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-16 13:34 | 171 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-16 14:39 | 172 | Seer 20220906 | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-16 15:43 | 173 | Igel 3.1.4 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2022-09-16 16:47 | 174 | Minic 3.30 | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-16 17:52 | 175 | Nemorino 6.11 | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-16 18:56 | 176 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-16 20:00 | 177 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-16 21:05 | 178 | Koivisto 8.13 | Seer 20220906 |
2022-09-16 22:09 | 179 | RubiChess 20220902 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-16 23:13 | 180 | Revenge 20220816 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-17 00:18 | 181 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-17 01:22 | 182 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-17 02:26 | 183 | Seer 20220906 | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-17 03:31 | 184 | Igel 3.1.4 | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-17 04:35 | 185 | Minic 3.30 | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-17 05:39 | 186 | Arasan v23.4.0 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2022-09-17 06:43 | 187 | Nemorino 6.11 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2022-09-17 07:48 | 188 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-17 08:52 | 189 | Koivisto 8.13 | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-17 09:56 | 190 | RubiChess 20220902 | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-17 11:01 | 191 | Revenge 20220816 | Seer 20220906 |
2022-09-17 12:05 | 192 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-17 13:09 | 193 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-17 14:14 | 194 | Seer 20220906 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-17 15:18 | 195 | Igel 3.1.4 | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-17 16:22 | 196 | Minic 3.30 | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-17 17:27 | 197 | Arasan v23.4.0 | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-17 18:31 | 198 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-17 19:35 | 199 | Nemorino 6.11 | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-17 20:40 | 200 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-17 21:44 | 201 | Arasan v23.4.0 | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-17 22:48 | 202 | Minic 3.30 | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-17 23:53 | 203 | Igel 3.1.4 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-18 00:57 | 204 | Seer 20220906 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-18 02:01 | 205 | Seer 20220906 | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-18 03:05 | 206 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-18 04:10 | 207 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-18 05:14 | 208 | Revenge 20220816 | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-18 06:18 | 209 | RubiChess 20220902 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2022-09-18 07:23 | 210 | Koivisto 8.13 | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-18 08:27 | 211 | Nemorino 6.11 | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-18 09:31 | 212 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-18 10:36 | 213 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-18 11:40 | 214 | Arasan v23.4.0 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-18 12:44 | 215 | Minic 3.30 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-18 13:49 | 216 | Igel 3.1.4 | Seer 20220906 |
2022-09-18 14:53 | 217 | Igel 3.1.4 | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-18 15:57 | 218 | Seer 20220906 | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-18 17:02 | 219 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-18 18:06 | 220 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2022-09-18 19:10 | 221 | Revenge 20220816 | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-18 20:15 | 222 | RubiChess 20220902 | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-18 21:19 | 223 | Nemorino 6.11 | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-18 22:23 | 224 | Koivisto 8.13 | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-18 23:27 | 225 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-19 00:32 | 226 | Fritz 18_Vienna | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-19 01:36 | 227 | Arasan v23.4.0 | Seer 20220906 |
2022-09-19 02:40 | 228 | Minic 3.30 | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-19 03:45 | 229 | Minic 3.30 | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-19 04:49 | 230 | Igel 3.1.4 | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-19 05:53 | 231 | Seer 20220906 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2022-09-19 06:58 | 232 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-19 08:02 | 233 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-19 09:06 | 234 | Revenge 20220816 | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-19 10:11 | 235 | Nemorino 6.11 | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-19 11:15 | 236 | RubiChess 20220902 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-19 12:19 | 237 | Koivisto 8.13 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-19 13:24 | 238 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Seer 20220906 |
2022-09-19 14:28 | 239 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-19 15:32 | 240 | Arasan v23.4.0 | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-19 16:37 | 241 | Arasan v23.4.0 | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-19 17:41 | 242 | Minic 3.30 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2022-09-19 18:45 | 243 | Igel 3.1.4 | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-19 19:49 | 244 | Seer 20220906 | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-19 20:54 | 245 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-19 21:58 | 246 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-19 23:02 | 247 | Nemorino 6.11 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-20 00:07 | 248 | Revenge 20220816 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-20 01:11 | 249 | RubiChess 20220902 | Seer 20220906 |
2022-09-20 02:15 | 250 | Koivisto 8.13 | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-20 03:20 | 251 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-20 04:24 | 252 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-20 05:28 | 253 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Nemorino 6.11 |
2022-09-20 06:33 | 254 | Arasan v23.4.0 | Berserk dev10_20220905 |
2022-09-20 07:37 | 255 | Minic 3.30 | Koivisto 8.13 |
2022-09-20 08:41 | 256 | Igel 3.1.4 | RubiChess 20220902 |
2022-09-20 09:46 | 257 | Seer 20220906 | Revenge 20220816 |
2022-09-20 10:50 | 258 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE |
2022-09-20 11:54 | 259 | Nemorino 6.11 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.8 |
2022-09-20 12:59 | 260 | Ethereal 13.88_NNUE | Seer 20220906 |
2022-09-20 14:03 | 261 | Revenge 20220816 | Igel 3.1.4 |
2022-09-20 15:07 | 262 | RubiChess 20220902 | Minic 3.30 |
2022-09-20 16:11 | 263 | Koivisto 8.13 | Arasan v23.4.0 |
2022-09-20 17:16 | 264 | Berserk dev10_20220905 | Fritz 18_Vienna |