For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27
Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | 9-12. | 9. | 10. | 11. | 12. | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Koivisto 9.2 | 91.991% | 6.300% | 98.291% | 1.250% | 0.312% | 0.104% | 0.027% | 0.014% | 0.002% | ||||||||||
2. | Revenge 20230209 | 4.180% | 33.997% | 38.177% | 23.269% | 15.528% | 10.669% | 7.013% | 4.012% | 1.261% | 0.071% | 0.070% | 0.001% | |||||||
3. | RubiChess 20230301 | 1.795% | 18.493% | 20.288% | 20.874% | 19.180% | 15.749% | 12.185% | 8.543% | 3.055% | 0.126% | 0.126% | ||||||||
4. | Igel 3.5-dev | 0.990% | 19.084% | 20.074% | 20.019% | 18.219% | 15.585% | 12.684% | 9.216% | 3.837% | 0.366% | 0.359% | 0.007% | |||||||
5. | Berserk 20230227 | 0.517% | 8.907% | 9.424% | 12.456% | 15.365% | 17.273% | 17.815% | 16.696% | 10.259% | 0.712% | 0.700% | 0.012% | |||||||
6. | rofChade 3.017 | 0.262% | 6.793% | 7.055% | 10.458% | 14.089% | 17.052% | 18.783% | 18.753% | 12.523% | 1.287% | 1.275% | 0.012% | |||||||
7. | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | 0.235% | 6.000% | 6.235% | 10.248% | 14.056% | 17.209% | 19.545% | 20.100% | 11.377% | 1.230% | 1.182% | 0.048% | |||||||
8. | Seer 20230107 | 0.030% | 0.425% | 0.455% | 1.413% | 3.210% | 6.215% | 11.412% | 20.724% | 46.640% | 9.931% | 9.631% | 0.297% | 0.003% | ||||||
9. | Minic 3.33 | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.013% | 0.041% | 0.144% | 0.530% | 1.907% | 10.619% | 86.745% | 73.062% | 12.147% | 1.366% | 0.170% | ||||||
10. | Fritz 18_Vienna | 0.006% | 0.035% | 0.417% | 99.542% | 12.145% | 71.502% | 13.273% | 2.622% | |||||||||||
11. | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | 0.006% | 99.994% | 0.972% | 10.277% | 48.969% | 39.776% | |||||||||||||
12. | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 | 0.004% | 99.996% | 0.478% | 5.697% | 36.389% | 57.432% |
Top promotions
Pos | 1. | 2. | |
---|---|---|---|
1. | Koivisto 9.2 | Revenge 20230209 | 33.496% |
2. | Koivisto 9.2 | Igel 3.5-dev | 18.835% |
3. | Koivisto 9.2 | RubiChess 20230301 | 18.034% |
4. | Koivisto 9.2 | Berserk 20230227 | 8.682% |
5. | Koivisto 9.2 | rofChade 3.017 | 6.666% |
6. | Koivisto 9.2 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | 5.882% |
7. | Revenge 20230209 | Koivisto 9.2 | 3.468% |
8. | RubiChess 20230301 | Koivisto 9.2 | 1.398% |
9. | Igel 3.5-dev | Koivisto 9.2 | 0.662% |
10. | Berserk 20230227 | Koivisto 9.2 | 0.419% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. | Koivisto 9.2 | Revenge 20230209 | 36.964% |
2. | Igel 3.5-dev | Koivisto 9.2 | 19.497% |
3. | Koivisto 9.2 | RubiChess 20230301 | 19.432% |
4. | Berserk 20230227 | Koivisto 9.2 | 9.101% |
5. | Koivisto 9.2 | rofChade 3.017 | 6.838% |
6. | Koivisto 9.2 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | 6.040% |
7. | Revenge 20230209 | RubiChess 20230301 | 0.531% |
8. | Koivisto 9.2 | Seer 20230107 | 0.418% |
9. | Igel 3.5-dev | Revenge 20230209 | 0.317% |
10. | Berserk 20230227 | Revenge 20230209 | 0.151% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.05h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC | No | White | Black |
---|---|---|---|
2023-03-09 07:17 | 170 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Berserk 20230227 |
2023-03-09 08:20 | 171 | RubiChess 20230301 | Koivisto 9.2 |
2023-03-09 09:23 | 172 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 |
2023-03-09 10:26 | 173 | Revenge 20230209 | rofChade 3.017 |
2023-03-09 11:29 | 174 | Seer 20230107 | Minic 3.33 |
2023-03-09 12:32 | 175 | Igel 3.5-dev | Minic 3.33 |
2023-03-09 13:35 | 176 | rofChade 3.017 | Seer 20230107 |
2023-03-09 14:38 | 177 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 | Revenge 20230209 |
2023-03-09 15:41 | 178 | Koivisto 9.2 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev |
2023-03-09 16:44 | 179 | Berserk 20230227 | RubiChess 20230301 |
2023-03-09 17:47 | 180 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2023-03-09 18:51 | 181 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Igel 3.5-dev |
2023-03-09 19:54 | 182 | RubiChess 20230301 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
2023-03-09 20:57 | 183 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | Berserk 20230227 |
2023-03-09 22:00 | 184 | Revenge 20230209 | Koivisto 9.2 |
2023-03-09 23:03 | 185 | Seer 20230107 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 |
2023-03-10 00:06 | 186 | Minic 3.33 | rofChade 3.017 |
2023-03-10 01:09 | 187 | Igel 3.5-dev | rofChade 3.017 |
2023-03-10 02:12 | 188 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 | Minic 3.33 |
2023-03-10 03:15 | 189 | Koivisto 9.2 | Seer 20230107 |
2023-03-10 04:18 | 190 | Berserk 20230227 | Revenge 20230209 |
2023-03-10 05:21 | 191 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev |
2023-03-10 06:24 | 192 | Fritz 18_Vienna | RubiChess 20230301 |
2023-03-10 07:27 | 193 | RubiChess 20230301 | Igel 3.5-dev |
2023-03-10 08:30 | 194 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2023-03-10 09:33 | 195 | Revenge 20230209 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
2023-03-10 10:36 | 196 | Seer 20230107 | Berserk 20230227 |
2023-03-10 11:39 | 197 | Minic 3.33 | Koivisto 9.2 |
2023-03-10 12:42 | 198 | rofChade 3.017 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 |
2023-03-10 13:45 | 199 | Igel 3.5-dev | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 |
2023-03-10 14:48 | 200 | rofChade 3.017 | Koivisto 9.2 |
2023-03-10 15:51 | 201 | Minic 3.33 | Berserk 20230227 |
2023-03-10 16:55 | 202 | Seer 20230107 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
2023-03-10 17:58 | 203 | Revenge 20230209 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2023-03-10 19:01 | 204 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | RubiChess 20230301 |
2023-03-10 20:04 | 205 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | Igel 3.5-dev |
2023-03-10 21:07 | 206 | RubiChess 20230301 | Revenge 20230209 |
2023-03-10 22:10 | 207 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Seer 20230107 |
2023-03-10 23:13 | 208 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Minic 3.33 |
2023-03-11 00:16 | 209 | Berserk 20230227 | rofChade 3.017 |
2023-03-11 01:19 | 210 | Koivisto 9.2 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 |
2023-03-11 02:22 | 211 | Igel 3.5-dev | Koivisto 9.2 |
2023-03-11 03:25 | 212 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 | Berserk 20230227 |
2023-03-11 04:28 | 213 | rofChade 3.017 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
2023-03-11 05:31 | 214 | Minic 3.33 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2023-03-11 06:34 | 215 | Seer 20230107 | RubiChess 20230301 |
2023-03-11 07:37 | 216 | Revenge 20230209 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev |
2023-03-11 08:40 | 217 | Revenge 20230209 | Igel 3.5-dev |
2023-03-11 09:43 | 218 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | Seer 20230107 |
2023-03-11 10:46 | 219 | RubiChess 20230301 | Minic 3.33 |
2023-03-11 11:49 | 220 | Fritz 18_Vienna | rofChade 3.017 |
2023-03-11 12:52 | 221 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 |
2023-03-11 13:55 | 222 | Berserk 20230227 | Koivisto 9.2 |
2023-03-11 14:58 | 223 | Igel 3.5-dev | Berserk 20230227 |
2023-03-11 16:02 | 224 | Koivisto 9.2 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
2023-03-11 17:05 | 225 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2023-03-11 18:08 | 226 | rofChade 3.017 | RubiChess 20230301 |
2023-03-11 19:11 | 227 | Minic 3.33 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev |
2023-03-11 20:14 | 228 | Seer 20230107 | Revenge 20230209 |
2023-03-11 21:17 | 229 | Seer 20230107 | Igel 3.5-dev |
2023-03-11 22:20 | 230 | Revenge 20230209 | Minic 3.33 |
2023-03-11 23:23 | 231 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | rofChade 3.017 |
2023-03-12 00:26 | 232 | RubiChess 20230301 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 |
2023-03-12 01:29 | 233 | Fritz 18_Vienna | Koivisto 9.2 |
2023-03-12 02:32 | 234 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Berserk 20230227 |
2023-03-12 03:35 | 235 | Igel 3.5-dev | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
2023-03-12 04:38 | 236 | Berserk 20230227 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2023-03-12 05:41 | 237 | Koivisto 9.2 | RubiChess 20230301 |
2023-03-12 06:44 | 238 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev |
2023-03-12 07:47 | 239 | rofChade 3.017 | Revenge 20230209 |
2023-03-12 08:50 | 240 | Minic 3.33 | Seer 20230107 |
2023-03-12 09:53 | 241 | Minic 3.33 | Igel 3.5-dev |
2023-03-12 10:56 | 242 | Seer 20230107 | rofChade 3.017 |
2023-03-12 11:59 | 243 | Revenge 20230209 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 |
2023-03-12 13:02 | 244 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | Koivisto 9.2 |
2023-03-12 14:06 | 245 | RubiChess 20230301 | Berserk 20230227 |
2023-03-12 15:09 | 246 | Fritz 18_Vienna | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
2023-03-12 16:12 | 247 | Igel 3.5-dev | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2023-03-12 17:15 | 248 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | RubiChess 20230301 |
2023-03-12 18:18 | 249 | Berserk 20230227 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev |
2023-03-12 19:21 | 250 | Koivisto 9.2 | Revenge 20230209 |
2023-03-12 20:24 | 251 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 | Seer 20230107 |
2023-03-12 21:27 | 252 | rofChade 3.017 | Minic 3.33 |
2023-03-12 22:30 | 253 | rofChade 3.017 | Igel 3.5-dev |
2023-03-12 23:33 | 254 | Minic 3.33 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 |
2023-03-13 00:36 | 255 | Seer 20230107 | Koivisto 9.2 |
2023-03-13 01:39 | 256 | Revenge 20230209 | Berserk 20230227 |
2023-03-13 02:42 | 257 | BlackMarlin 8.0dev | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 |
2023-03-13 03:45 | 258 | RubiChess 20230301 | Fritz 18_Vienna |
2023-03-13 04:48 | 259 | Igel 3.5-dev | RubiChess 20230301 |
2023-03-13 05:51 | 260 | Fritz 18_Vienna | BlackMarlin 8.0dev |
2023-03-13 06:54 | 261 | ScorpioNN 3.0.15.10 | Revenge 20230209 |
2023-03-13 07:57 | 262 | Berserk 20230227 | Seer 20230107 |
2023-03-13 09:00 | 263 | Koivisto 9.2 | Minic 3.33 |
2023-03-13 10:03 | 264 | Marvin 6.2.0-a7 | rofChade 3.017 |