TCEC Season 16, League1Playoff, Game 24 speculation simulation

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank	Player name	Points	EPoints	StdDev	ERank	1	2	3
1	Stoofvlees II a10/II a11/II a12	3.5	3.50	0.00	1.00	100	0	0
2	Ethereal 11.50/11.57	3.0	3.00	0.00	2.00	0	100	0
3	ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8/v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8	3.0	3.00	0.00	3.00	0	0	100
4	Laser 230319	2.5	2.50	0.00	4.00	0	0	0

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.
1.	Stoofvlees II a12		46.616%	26.077%		72.693%		27.307%
2.	ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8		26.077%	73.923%		100.000%
3.	Ethereal 11.57		27.307%			27.307%		72.693%
4.	Laser 230319								100.000%

Speculate Stoofvlees II a12 – Ethereal 11.57 1-0

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.
1.	Stoofvlees II a12		100.000%			100.000%
2.	ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8			100.000%		100.000%
3.	Ethereal 11.57							100.000%
4.	Laser 230319								100.000%

Speculate Stoofvlees II a12 – Ethereal 11.57 1/2-1/2

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.
1.	ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8		100.000%			100.000%
2.	Stoofvlees II a12			100.000%		100.000%
3.	Ethereal 11.57							100.000%
4.	Laser 230319								100.000%

Speculate Stoofvlees II a12 – Ethereal 11.57 0-1

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.
1.	Ethereal 11.57		100.000%			100.000%
2.	ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8			100.000%		100.000%
3.	Stoofvlees II a12							100.000%
4.	Laser 230319								100.000%