For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.808% |
22.365% |
0.739% |
0.088% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.126% |
76.164% |
0.664% |
0.044% |
|
99.998% |
|
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.054% |
1.148% |
66.689% |
25.239% |
|
93.130% |
|
6.869% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.012% |
0.319% |
23.705% |
48.155% |
|
72.191% |
|
26.841% |
0.906% |
0.061% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.004% |
8.195% |
25.956% |
|
34.155% |
|
58.785% |
5.363% |
1.258% |
0.350% |
0.082% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.085% |
|
0.085% |
|
2.930% |
48.463% |
21.542% |
13.887% |
8.605% |
3.721% |
|
0.767% |
|
0.684% |
0.080% |
0.003% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.297% |
|
0.305% |
|
1.709% |
18.877% |
21.000% |
21.301% |
19.991% |
13.211% |
|
3.606% |
|
3.181% |
0.424% |
0.001% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.122% |
|
0.122% |
|
2.018% |
13.980% |
21.934% |
20.945% |
19.314% |
16.340% |
|
5.347% |
|
4.691% |
0.647% |
0.009% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.320% |
5.462% |
16.873% |
22.859% |
24.250% |
22.169% |
|
8.067% |
|
7.551% |
0.513% |
0.003% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
|
0.014% |
|
0.526% |
6.943% |
17.057% |
18.510% |
20.822% |
24.609% |
|
11.519% |
|
8.584% |
2.892% |
0.043% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.252% |
1.747% |
4.901% |
12.627% |
|
80.468% |
|
45.607% |
28.451% |
6.049% |
0.361% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.398% |
2.014% |
7.124% |
|
90.441% |
|
26.080% |
51.891% |
11.645% |
0.825% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.021% |
0.187% |
|
99.790% |
|
2.557% |
9.987% |
54.094% |
33.028% |
0.124% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
|
99.995% |
|
1.065% |
5.115% |
28.108% |
62.799% |
2.908% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.045% |
2.987% |
96.968% |
Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Minic 1.32 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.891% |
22.290% |
0.713% |
0.106% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.041% |
76.263% |
0.664% |
0.031% |
|
99.999% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.050% |
1.132% |
66.463% |
25.386% |
|
93.031% |
|
6.962% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.018% |
0.314% |
23.789% |
48.408% |
|
72.529% |
|
26.477% |
0.937% |
0.056% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.001% |
8.364% |
25.564% |
|
33.929% |
|
58.968% |
5.353% |
1.297% |
0.372% |
0.070% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.071% |
|
0.071% |
|
2.960% |
48.569% |
21.297% |
14.207% |
8.851% |
3.638% |
|
0.407% |
|
0.374% |
0.033% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.305% |
|
0.312% |
|
1.714% |
18.966% |
20.896% |
21.578% |
20.941% |
13.648% |
|
1.945% |
|
1.829% |
0.113% |
0.003% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.115% |
|
0.115% |
|
2.077% |
13.723% |
22.003% |
21.602% |
20.603% |
17.377% |
|
2.500% |
|
2.223% |
0.266% |
0.011% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.314% |
5.509% |
17.125% |
23.191% |
25.328% |
25.371% |
|
3.162% |
|
2.918% |
0.242% |
0.002% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
|
0.014% |
|
0.527% |
6.936% |
17.292% |
18.634% |
21.522% |
26.573% |
|
8.502% |
|
7.357% |
1.129% |
0.016% |
|
|
11. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.034% |
0.405% |
2.269% |
8.673% |
|
88.619% |
|
39.231% |
38.456% |
10.160% |
0.772% |
|
12. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.392% |
4.502% |
|
95.097% |
|
39.493% |
41.901% |
12.803% |
0.900% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.024% |
0.197% |
|
99.778% |
|
4.520% |
12.084% |
50.557% |
32.263% |
0.354% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
99.990% |
|
2.055% |
5.776% |
26.313% |
59.865% |
5.981% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.135% |
6.200% |
93.665% |
Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Minic 1.32 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.959% |
22.184% |
0.757% |
0.100% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
22.972% |
76.315% |
0.674% |
0.039% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.058% |
1.168% |
66.380% |
25.330% |
|
92.936% |
|
7.058% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.011% |
0.329% |
23.809% |
48.280% |
|
72.429% |
|
26.639% |
0.880% |
0.051% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.004% |
8.379% |
25.754% |
|
34.137% |
|
58.709% |
5.407% |
1.283% |
0.372% |
0.085% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.070% |
|
0.070% |
|
2.982% |
48.700% |
21.297% |
13.994% |
8.701% |
3.620% |
|
0.636% |
|
0.550% |
0.084% |
0.002% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.286% |
|
0.287% |
|
1.682% |
18.767% |
21.118% |
21.626% |
20.141% |
13.193% |
|
3.186% |
|
2.810% |
0.375% |
0.001% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.129% |
|
0.129% |
|
2.149% |
13.929% |
21.897% |
21.233% |
19.510% |
16.211% |
|
4.942% |
|
4.258% |
0.675% |
0.009% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.289% |
5.478% |
17.122% |
23.386% |
24.767% |
21.965% |
|
6.993% |
|
6.460% |
0.529% |
0.004% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
|
0.012% |
|
0.492% |
6.832% |
17.201% |
18.570% |
21.120% |
25.019% |
|
10.754% |
|
7.939% |
2.774% |
0.041% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.410% |
3.542% |
12.374% |
|
83.668% |
|
50.031% |
29.407% |
4.172% |
0.058% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.025% |
0.405% |
2.115% |
7.422% |
|
90.032% |
|
24.635% |
52.654% |
11.896% |
0.847% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.019% |
0.181% |
|
99.797% |
|
2.460% |
8.783% |
55.126% |
33.384% |
0.044% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
99.992% |
|
0.857% |
4.719% |
28.742% |
63.405% |
2.269% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.007% |
2.306% |
97.687% |
Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Minic 1.32 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.621% |
22.560% |
0.734% |
0.085% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.323% |
76.039% |
0.602% |
0.036% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.040% |
1.072% |
66.547% |
25.212% |
|
92.871% |
|
7.122% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.016% |
0.324% |
23.767% |
48.459% |
|
72.566% |
|
26.409% |
0.961% |
0.064% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.005% |
8.336% |
25.714% |
|
34.055% |
|
58.873% |
5.405% |
1.224% |
0.368% |
0.071% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.075% |
|
0.075% |
|
2.961% |
48.685% |
21.364% |
13.651% |
8.338% |
3.782% |
|
1.144% |
|
0.993% |
0.142% |
0.009% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.280% |
|
0.294% |
|
1.705% |
19.103% |
20.732% |
20.597% |
18.933% |
12.909% |
|
5.727% |
|
4.921% |
0.802% |
0.004% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.124% |
|
0.124% |
|
2.114% |
13.711% |
21.802% |
20.095% |
18.090% |
15.565% |
|
8.499% |
|
7.498% |
0.988% |
0.013% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.300% |
5.278% |
16.972% |
22.296% |
22.721% |
18.779% |
|
13.654% |
|
12.789% |
0.864% |
0.001% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
0.015% |
|
0.516% |
6.834% |
17.164% |
18.416% |
19.652% |
22.369% |
|
15.034% |
|
10.223% |
4.745% |
0.066% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.661% |
4.246% |
10.459% |
20.968% |
|
63.650% |
|
48.303% |
14.500% |
0.847% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.331% |
1.729% |
5.494% |
|
92.429% |
|
13.980% |
64.966% |
12.642% |
0.841% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.128% |
|
99.865% |
|
1.053% |
8.218% |
57.491% |
33.103% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
|
99.998% |
|
0.240% |
4.775% |
28.927% |
65.522% |
0.534% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.534% |
99.466% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.5 |
22.27 |
1.07 |
1.32 |
70 |
28 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
17.5 |
21.58 |
0.99 |
1.74 |
29 |
67 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.97 |
3.54 |
0 |
2 |
56 |
30 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.27 |
1.07 |
4.08 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
42 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
17.37 |
1.06 |
4.99 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
20 |
49 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.0 |
15.26 |
1.08 |
7.48 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
27 |
27 |
17 |
12 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.16 |
2.73 |
8.07 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.0 |
14.50 |
1.02 |
8.71 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
16 |
20 |
20 |
17 |
12 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.40 |
1.07 |
8.91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
14 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.97 |
9.17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
13 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
15 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.25 |
1.04 |
9.22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
13 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
10.5 |
12.82 |
0.97 |
11.67 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
10 |
20 |
36 |
22 |
5 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.22 |
0.96 |
12.52 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
10 |
25 |
45 |
13 |
1 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
8.5 |
10.89 |
1.03 |
14.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
15 |
52 |
27 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
7.5 |
10.10 |
1.03 |
14.65 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
25 |
62 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.79 |
1.03 |
15.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 18:07 |
210 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
2020-01-23 19:08 |
211 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-23 20:10 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 21:12 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:14 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:15 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:17 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:19 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:21 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:22 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:24 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:26 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:28 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:29 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:31 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:33 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:35 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:36 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:38 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:40 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:42 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:43 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:45 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 17:47 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 18:49 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 19:50 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 20:52 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 21:54 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 22:56 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 23:57 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 00:59 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |