For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.919% |
22.233% |
0.747% |
0.101% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.031% |
76.316% |
0.620% |
0.033% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.037% |
1.103% |
66.558% |
25.300% |
|
92.998% |
|
6.998% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.013% |
0.345% |
23.842% |
48.299% |
|
72.499% |
|
26.449% |
0.982% |
0.069% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.003% |
8.223% |
25.802% |
|
34.028% |
|
58.995% |
5.314% |
1.250% |
0.342% |
0.067% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.069% |
|
0.069% |
|
2.982% |
49.027% |
21.065% |
13.690% |
8.238% |
3.800% |
|
1.129% |
|
0.997% |
0.131% |
0.001% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.278% |
|
0.288% |
|
1.688% |
18.812% |
21.087% |
20.460% |
19.149% |
12.929% |
|
5.587% |
|
4.807% |
0.780% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.107% |
|
0.107% |
|
2.080% |
13.714% |
21.669% |
20.345% |
18.021% |
15.566% |
|
8.498% |
|
7.472% |
1.022% |
0.004% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.257% |
5.254% |
16.932% |
22.215% |
22.756% |
18.931% |
|
13.655% |
|
12.767% |
0.888% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
|
0.011% |
|
0.551% |
6.882% |
17.226% |
18.417% |
19.642% |
22.250% |
|
15.021% |
|
10.442% |
4.550% |
0.029% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.681% |
4.205% |
10.361% |
21.041% |
|
63.701% |
|
48.810% |
14.559% |
0.332% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
0.325% |
1.766% |
5.462% |
|
92.426% |
|
14.209% |
68.350% |
8.751% |
1.116% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
|
99.983% |
|
0.496% |
5.969% |
58.513% |
35.005% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.751% |
32.370% |
63.614% |
0.265% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.265% |
99.735% |
Speculate PeSTO 2.210 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
91.517% |
7.685% |
0.721% |
0.077% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
8.343% |
89.760% |
1.768% |
0.126% |
|
99.997% |
|
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.103% |
2.010% |
65.900% |
24.995% |
|
93.008% |
|
6.976% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.037% |
0.537% |
23.411% |
48.223% |
|
72.208% |
|
25.874% |
1.735% |
0.181% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.008% |
8.167% |
25.491% |
|
33.666% |
|
57.133% |
6.645% |
1.822% |
0.591% |
0.131% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.063% |
|
0.063% |
|
2.801% |
39.113% |
25.908% |
17.464% |
9.504% |
3.944% |
|
1.203% |
|
1.049% |
0.143% |
0.011% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.033% |
0.897% |
|
0.930% |
|
4.643% |
33.485% |
27.739% |
19.040% |
11.068% |
2.961% |
|
0.134% |
|
0.134% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.120% |
|
0.120% |
|
1.934% |
11.099% |
18.331% |
19.459% |
21.674% |
18.429% |
|
8.954% |
|
7.972% |
0.976% |
0.006% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.211% |
3.357% |
12.526% |
21.710% |
25.372% |
22.126% |
|
14.698% |
|
13.836% |
0.862% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
0.008% |
|
0.425% |
4.548% |
13.240% |
18.920% |
21.989% |
25.486% |
|
15.384% |
|
10.549% |
4.820% |
0.015% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.247% |
2.677% |
9.154% |
21.605% |
|
66.315% |
|
51.141% |
14.818% |
0.356% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.137% |
1.107% |
5.420% |
|
93.330% |
|
14.797% |
68.338% |
9.042% |
1.153% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.017% |
|
99.982% |
|
0.522% |
6.144% |
58.568% |
34.748% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.899% |
32.002% |
63.843% |
0.256% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.256% |
99.744% |
Speculate PeSTO 2.210 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
82.158% |
17.032% |
0.710% |
0.100% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
17.790% |
81.686% |
0.512% |
0.012% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.044% |
0.947% |
66.577% |
25.357% |
|
92.925% |
|
7.075% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.008% |
0.335% |
23.882% |
48.432% |
|
72.657% |
|
26.434% |
0.846% |
0.063% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
8.319% |
25.705% |
|
34.024% |
|
59.048% |
5.216% |
1.230% |
0.376% |
0.101% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.066% |
|
0.066% |
|
2.986% |
47.679% |
21.184% |
14.201% |
8.854% |
3.868% |
|
1.162% |
|
1.028% |
0.129% |
0.005% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.184% |
|
0.184% |
|
1.504% |
20.854% |
23.632% |
22.796% |
18.681% |
10.272% |
|
2.077% |
|
1.985% |
0.092% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.136% |
|
0.136% |
|
2.128% |
13.710% |
20.899% |
19.592% |
18.289% |
16.520% |
|
8.726% |
|
7.735% |
0.984% |
0.007% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.285% |
5.141% |
16.095% |
21.506% |
23.094% |
19.717% |
|
14.162% |
|
13.296% |
0.866% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
0.008% |
|
0.540% |
6.548% |
16.363% |
17.612% |
19.894% |
23.556% |
|
15.479% |
|
10.679% |
4.790% |
0.010% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.520% |
3.654% |
9.607% |
20.857% |
|
65.356% |
|
50.213% |
14.800% |
0.343% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.263% |
1.480% |
5.186% |
|
93.057% |
|
14.589% |
68.295% |
9.050% |
1.123% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
|
99.981% |
|
0.475% |
6.151% |
58.265% |
35.090% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.893% |
32.320% |
63.573% |
0.214% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.214% |
99.786% |
Speculate PeSTO 2.210 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
66.227% |
32.913% |
0.765% |
0.095% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
33.762% |
66.189% |
0.046% |
0.003% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.008% |
0.706% |
67.010% |
25.294% |
|
93.018% |
|
6.982% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.003% |
0.192% |
23.991% |
48.537% |
|
72.723% |
|
26.671% |
0.582% |
0.024% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
8.188% |
25.835% |
|
34.023% |
|
59.664% |
5.028% |
0.977% |
0.253% |
0.052% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.074% |
|
0.074% |
|
3.092% |
54.297% |
18.735% |
11.554% |
7.465% |
3.685% |
|
1.098% |
|
0.975% |
0.121% |
0.002% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.117% |
|
0.117% |
|
2.135% |
15.280% |
23.852% |
21.109% |
16.421% |
13.284% |
|
7.802% |
|
6.811% |
0.988% |
0.003% |
|
|
8. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.331% |
6.389% |
19.438% |
22.763% |
21.366% |
16.521% |
|
13.192% |
|
12.314% |
0.878% |
|
|
|
9. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.033% |
|
0.033% |
|
0.439% |
10.302% |
16.335% |
20.010% |
23.021% |
19.525% |
|
10.335% |
|
8.756% |
1.579% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
|
0.012% |
|
0.686% |
8.098% |
19.561% |
18.562% |
18.256% |
20.211% |
|
14.614% |
|
10.035% |
4.552% |
0.027% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.024% |
1.046% |
5.283% |
11.255% |
20.979% |
|
61.413% |
|
46.851% |
14.261% |
0.301% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.032% |
0.466% |
2.163% |
5.772% |
|
91.567% |
|
13.759% |
67.707% |
9.016% |
1.085% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.020% |
|
99.979% |
|
0.499% |
6.083% |
58.732% |
34.665% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.831% |
31.919% |
64.009% |
0.241% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.241% |
99.759% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.5 |
22.27 |
1.06 |
1.32 |
69 |
29 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
17.5 |
21.59 |
0.99 |
1.74 |
30 |
67 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.97 |
3.54 |
0 |
2 |
56 |
30 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.27 |
1.07 |
4.08 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
42 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
17.36 |
1.06 |
4.99 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
20 |
49 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.0 |
15.27 |
1.07 |
7.50 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
27 |
27 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.16 |
2.73 |
8.12 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.0 |
14.51 |
1.06 |
8.78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
12 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.39 |
1.07 |
8.99 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
14 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.97 |
9.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
13 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.26 |
1.04 |
9.30 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
13 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.05 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
9 |
15 |
25 |
33 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.22 |
0.96 |
12.63 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
20 |
54 |
12 |
2 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.83 |
0.93 |
14.06 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
57 |
26 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.64 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
26 |
67 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.27 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 20:22 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 21:24 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:26 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:28 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:30 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:31 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:33 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:35 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:37 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:39 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:40 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:42 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:44 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:46 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:48 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:50 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:51 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:53 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:55 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:57 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:59 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:00 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:02 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:04 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:06 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:08 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:10 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:11 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:13 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |