For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
82.041% |
17.120% |
0.763% |
0.076% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
17.902% |
81.551% |
0.535% |
0.012% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.049% |
1.013% |
66.954% |
25.017% |
|
93.033% |
|
6.967% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.008% |
0.316% |
23.559% |
48.977% |
|
72.860% |
|
26.172% |
0.910% |
0.058% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
8.189% |
25.548% |
|
33.737% |
|
59.397% |
5.150% |
1.260% |
0.371% |
0.077% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.067% |
|
0.067% |
|
3.007% |
47.690% |
20.970% |
14.316% |
8.955% |
3.884% |
|
1.111% |
|
0.980% |
0.128% |
0.003% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.195% |
|
0.195% |
|
1.490% |
20.919% |
23.765% |
22.964% |
18.401% |
10.225% |
|
2.041% |
|
1.953% |
0.088% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.099% |
|
0.099% |
|
2.140% |
13.749% |
21.065% |
19.446% |
18.228% |
16.415% |
|
8.858% |
|
7.867% |
0.986% |
0.005% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.290% |
5.058% |
16.116% |
21.436% |
23.118% |
19.717% |
|
14.265% |
|
13.379% |
0.886% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
|
0.009% |
|
0.537% |
6.516% |
16.275% |
17.669% |
19.934% |
23.643% |
|
15.417% |
|
10.651% |
4.752% |
0.014% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.477% |
3.550% |
9.764% |
20.875% |
|
65.326% |
|
50.332% |
14.631% |
0.363% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.248% |
1.523% |
5.212% |
|
93.003% |
|
14.399% |
68.498% |
8.993% |
1.113% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
|
99.979% |
|
0.439% |
6.214% |
58.586% |
34.740% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.817% |
32.036% |
63.885% |
0.262% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.262% |
99.738% |
Speculate Winter 0.7.4 – Nemorino 5.27 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
82.309% |
16.882% |
0.719% |
0.090% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
17.637% |
81.802% |
0.545% |
0.016% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.039% |
1.011% |
66.949% |
25.129% |
|
93.128% |
|
6.872% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.015% |
0.305% |
23.471% |
48.684% |
|
72.475% |
|
26.621% |
0.818% |
0.086% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
8.316% |
25.604% |
|
33.920% |
|
59.149% |
5.112% |
1.297% |
0.433% |
0.085% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.292% |
|
0.292% |
|
4.520% |
27.930% |
26.376% |
18.615% |
12.869% |
8.016% |
|
1.382% |
|
1.366% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
7. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.408% |
29.701% |
22.600% |
20.265% |
16.309% |
8.044% |
|
2.673% |
|
2.350% |
0.314% |
0.009% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.178% |
|
0.178% |
|
1.434% |
21.248% |
22.234% |
21.713% |
19.445% |
11.544% |
|
2.204% |
|
2.096% |
0.108% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.351% |
6.734% |
13.799% |
19.263% |
21.894% |
22.449% |
|
15.510% |
|
14.532% |
0.978% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.645% |
8.441% |
13.237% |
16.320% |
19.278% |
25.822% |
|
16.250% |
|
11.281% |
4.952% |
0.017% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.359% |
3.167% |
8.631% |
19.054% |
|
68.773% |
|
53.360% |
15.068% |
0.345% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
0.224% |
1.489% |
5.046% |
|
93.229% |
|
14.506% |
68.569% |
9.009% |
1.145% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
|
99.979% |
|
0.509% |
6.330% |
58.676% |
34.464% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.665% |
31.944% |
64.136% |
0.255% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.255% |
99.745% |
Speculate Winter 0.7.4 – Nemorino 5.27 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
82.111% |
17.053% |
0.733% |
0.103% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
17.827% |
81.613% |
0.538% |
0.022% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.047% |
1.018% |
66.662% |
25.150% |
|
92.877% |
|
7.123% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.015% |
0.316% |
23.765% |
48.589% |
|
72.685% |
|
26.585% |
0.687% |
0.043% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
8.302% |
25.871% |
|
34.173% |
|
60.587% |
3.555% |
1.206% |
0.378% |
0.097% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
|
0.016% |
|
2.254% |
52.608% |
22.230% |
13.980% |
6.619% |
1.988% |
|
0.305% |
|
0.287% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.209% |
|
0.209% |
|
1.570% |
23.840% |
20.188% |
22.343% |
19.142% |
10.624% |
|
2.084% |
|
2.001% |
0.083% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.028% |
|
0.028% |
|
1.011% |
7.494% |
23.154% |
22.018% |
21.044% |
17.913% |
|
7.338% |
|
6.867% |
0.471% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.314% |
5.229% |
15.869% |
20.858% |
23.125% |
20.058% |
|
14.547% |
|
13.638% |
0.909% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
|
0.012% |
|
0.556% |
6.580% |
16.807% |
16.796% |
19.604% |
24.126% |
|
15.519% |
|
10.766% |
4.734% |
0.019% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.489% |
3.417% |
9.164% |
20.101% |
|
66.822% |
|
51.507% |
14.943% |
0.372% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.210% |
1.205% |
5.182% |
|
93.389% |
|
14.453% |
68.889% |
8.891% |
1.156% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
|
99.996% |
|
0.481% |
6.107% |
58.302% |
35.106% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.846% |
32.416% |
63.471% |
0.267% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.267% |
99.733% |
Speculate Winter 0.7.4 – Nemorino 5.27 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
82.314% |
16.882% |
0.715% |
0.089% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
17.624% |
81.842% |
0.519% |
0.015% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.047% |
0.972% |
66.493% |
25.373% |
|
92.885% |
|
7.115% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.015% |
0.304% |
23.900% |
48.290% |
|
72.509% |
|
26.280% |
1.178% |
0.032% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
8.373% |
25.824% |
|
34.197% |
|
57.646% |
6.484% |
1.178% |
0.408% |
0.084% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.218% |
|
0.218% |
|
6.828% |
66.390% |
17.899% |
6.985% |
1.487% |
0.184% |
|
0.009% |
|
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.181% |
|
0.181% |
|
1.536% |
18.183% |
28.180% |
24.617% |
16.985% |
8.451% |
|
1.867% |
|
1.803% |
0.064% |
|
|
|
8. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.196% |
2.949% |
19.075% |
24.879% |
24.313% |
16.165% |
|
12.423% |
|
11.625% |
0.798% |
|
|
|
9. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
0.010% |
|
0.346% |
3.657% |
19.990% |
20.127% |
20.853% |
20.400% |
|
14.617% |
|
10.067% |
4.525% |
0.025% |
|
|
10. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.053% |
1.159% |
12.895% |
18.279% |
22.798% |
25.534% |
|
19.282% |
|
16.575% |
2.692% |
0.015% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.722% |
4.364% |
11.796% |
23.507% |
|
59.611% |
|
45.141% |
14.146% |
0.324% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.029% |
0.340% |
1.684% |
5.730% |
|
92.217% |
|
14.308% |
68.077% |
8.744% |
1.088% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.026% |
|
99.974% |
|
0.472% |
5.907% |
58.352% |
35.243% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.791% |
32.540% |
63.383% |
0.286% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.286% |
99.714% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.5 |
22.28 |
1.06 |
1.27 |
75 |
24 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.45 |
0.90 |
1.79 |
25 |
72 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.96 |
3.53 |
0 |
2 |
56 |
30 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.26 |
1.07 |
4.09 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
42 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
17.36 |
1.06 |
4.99 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
20 |
49 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.0 |
15.27 |
1.07 |
7.52 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
27 |
26 |
16 |
11 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.14 |
2.74 |
8.16 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.65 |
0.96 |
8.52 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
15 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.40 |
1.07 |
9.02 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.98 |
9.33 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
11 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.25 |
1.04 |
9.35 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.08 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
15 |
25 |
34 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.21 |
0.96 |
12.65 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
20 |
55 |
12 |
2 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.82 |
0.92 |
14.07 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
57 |
27 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.64 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
27 |
67 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.28 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 21:21 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:22 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:24 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:26 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:28 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:30 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:31 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:33 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:35 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:37 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:39 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:40 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:42 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:44 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:46 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:48 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:49 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:51 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:53 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:55 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 17:57 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 18:58 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:00 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:02 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:04 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:06 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:07 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:09 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |