For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
81.990% |
17.193% |
0.730% |
0.087% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
17.945% |
81.522% |
0.520% |
0.013% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.047% |
0.996% |
66.723% |
25.302% |
|
93.068% |
|
6.932% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.018% |
0.289% |
23.594% |
48.758% |
|
72.659% |
|
26.637% |
0.663% |
0.041% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
8.433% |
25.592% |
|
34.025% |
|
60.643% |
3.651% |
1.201% |
0.350% |
0.119% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
|
0.019% |
|
2.316% |
52.376% |
22.192% |
14.305% |
6.484% |
2.005% |
|
0.303% |
|
0.285% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.193% |
|
0.193% |
|
1.609% |
23.905% |
20.586% |
22.037% |
19.195% |
10.455% |
|
2.020% |
|
1.939% |
0.081% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
|
0.021% |
|
1.013% |
7.650% |
22.740% |
22.140% |
20.888% |
18.101% |
|
7.447% |
|
6.979% |
0.468% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.315% |
5.051% |
15.844% |
20.946% |
23.086% |
19.955% |
|
14.803% |
|
13.883% |
0.920% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
0.015% |
|
0.535% |
6.698% |
16.872% |
16.638% |
19.799% |
24.379% |
|
15.064% |
|
10.479% |
4.569% |
0.016% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.513% |
3.354% |
9.087% |
20.223% |
|
66.817% |
|
51.490% |
14.964% |
0.363% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.230% |
1.342% |
4.869% |
|
93.548% |
|
14.420% |
68.996% |
8.984% |
1.148% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
|
99.998% |
|
0.525% |
6.138% |
58.420% |
34.915% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.846% |
32.217% |
63.661% |
0.276% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.276% |
99.724% |
Speculate Fire 021819 – Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.535% |
7.465% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.465% |
91.949% |
0.564% |
0.022% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.459% |
71.523% |
24.274% |
|
96.256% |
|
3.744% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
0.127% |
25.313% |
56.920% |
|
82.360% |
|
16.992% |
0.615% |
0.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.600% |
18.402% |
|
21.002% |
|
70.289% |
5.855% |
1.942% |
0.683% |
0.213% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.031% |
|
0.031% |
|
3.749% |
51.077% |
22.119% |
14.014% |
6.664% |
2.065% |
|
0.281% |
|
0.263% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.303% |
|
0.303% |
|
2.306% |
23.073% |
20.345% |
22.146% |
19.116% |
10.630% |
|
2.081% |
|
2.007% |
0.074% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.032% |
|
0.032% |
|
1.590% |
7.729% |
23.022% |
22.094% |
20.817% |
17.647% |
|
7.069% |
|
6.620% |
0.449% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.497% |
5.216% |
15.665% |
20.794% |
22.992% |
20.078% |
|
14.758% |
|
13.870% |
0.888% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
|
0.016% |
|
0.833% |
6.429% |
16.388% |
16.552% |
19.581% |
24.531% |
|
15.670% |
|
10.908% |
4.747% |
0.015% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.476% |
3.513% |
9.308% |
19.974% |
|
66.723% |
|
51.531% |
14.804% |
0.388% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.204% |
1.309% |
5.055% |
|
93.422% |
|
14.339% |
68.914% |
8.998% |
1.171% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
|
99.996% |
|
0.462% |
6.338% |
58.545% |
34.651% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.768% |
32.054% |
63.926% |
0.252% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.252% |
99.748% |
Speculate Fire 021819 – Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
80.345% |
19.038% |
0.579% |
0.038% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
19.603% |
79.862% |
0.518% |
0.017% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.042% |
0.860% |
67.198% |
24.798% |
|
92.898% |
|
7.102% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.010% |
0.240% |
23.966% |
45.577% |
|
69.793% |
|
29.461% |
0.700% |
0.046% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
7.739% |
29.386% |
|
37.125% |
|
60.290% |
1.986% |
0.532% |
0.057% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
1.067% |
53.897% |
22.277% |
14.049% |
6.436% |
1.992% |
|
0.275% |
|
0.262% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.154% |
|
0.154% |
|
1.040% |
23.950% |
20.538% |
22.259% |
19.196% |
10.747% |
|
2.116% |
|
2.038% |
0.078% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
0.015% |
|
0.547% |
7.572% |
22.955% |
22.432% |
21.197% |
17.878% |
|
7.404% |
|
6.897% |
0.507% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.145% |
5.148% |
15.989% |
20.844% |
23.024% |
20.121% |
|
14.729% |
|
13.818% |
0.911% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
0.008% |
|
0.348% |
6.743% |
17.147% |
16.684% |
19.722% |
24.080% |
|
15.268% |
|
10.690% |
4.560% |
0.018% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.509% |
3.447% |
9.090% |
20.108% |
|
66.842% |
|
51.644% |
14.857% |
0.341% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.228% |
1.325% |
5.071% |
|
93.369% |
|
14.178% |
69.309% |
8.724% |
1.158% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
|
99.997% |
|
0.473% |
5.986% |
58.534% |
35.004% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.779% |
32.383% |
63.574% |
0.264% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.264% |
99.736% |
Speculate Fire 021819 – Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
61.980% |
35.299% |
2.399% |
0.322% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
37.856% |
61.588% |
0.540% |
0.016% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.122% |
2.359% |
55.237% |
28.500% |
|
86.218% |
|
13.782% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
21.140% |
36.837% |
|
57.977% |
|
41.500% |
0.456% |
0.066% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.042% |
0.754% |
20.684% |
34.261% |
|
55.741% |
|
43.523% |
0.689% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
|
0.003% |
|
0.283% |
54.819% |
22.062% |
13.934% |
6.566% |
2.012% |
|
0.321% |
|
0.304% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.056% |
|
0.056% |
|
0.590% |
24.279% |
20.352% |
22.284% |
19.299% |
11.021% |
|
2.119% |
|
2.035% |
0.084% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
|
0.004% |
|
0.168% |
7.606% |
23.259% |
22.091% |
21.054% |
18.261% |
|
7.557% |
|
7.069% |
0.488% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.036% |
5.120% |
16.227% |
21.058% |
22.991% |
19.918% |
|
14.650% |
|
13.758% |
0.892% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.118% |
7.029% |
17.506% |
16.953% |
19.396% |
23.794% |
|
15.203% |
|
10.508% |
4.679% |
0.016% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.470% |
3.467% |
9.341% |
19.917% |
|
66.803% |
|
51.668% |
14.811% |
0.324% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.212% |
1.353% |
5.069% |
|
93.355% |
|
14.203% |
69.201% |
8.821% |
1.130% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
99.992% |
|
0.455% |
6.072% |
58.367% |
35.098% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.756% |
32.472% |
63.494% |
0.278% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.278% |
99.722% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.5 |
22.27 |
1.06 |
1.27 |
74 |
24 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.46 |
0.89 |
1.79 |
25 |
72 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.97 |
3.54 |
0 |
2 |
56 |
30 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.27 |
1.07 |
4.08 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
43 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
17.36 |
1.06 |
4.98 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
20 |
50 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.5 |
15.31 |
0.97 |
7.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
29 |
29 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.15 |
2.73 |
8.14 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.65 |
0.96 |
8.53 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
16 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.0 |
14.35 |
0.97 |
9.14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
13 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
15 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.27 |
0.97 |
9.33 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
11 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.25 |
1.04 |
9.37 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
14 |
25 |
35 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.21 |
0.96 |
12.66 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
20 |
55 |
12 |
2 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.83 |
0.93 |
14.07 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
57 |
26 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.64 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
26 |
67 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.27 |
0.92 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 22:25 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:27 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:29 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:31 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:32 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:34 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:36 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:38 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:40 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:42 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:43 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:45 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:47 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:49 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:51 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:52 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:54 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:56 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:58 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:00 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:01 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:03 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:05 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:07 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:09 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:11 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:12 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |