For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.461% |
7.539% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.539% |
91.884% |
0.562% |
0.015% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.453% |
71.676% |
24.177% |
|
96.306% |
|
3.694% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
0.124% |
25.189% |
56.876% |
|
82.189% |
|
17.160% |
0.611% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.573% |
18.574% |
|
21.147% |
|
69.897% |
6.011% |
2.087% |
0.644% |
0.196% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
|
0.021% |
|
3.803% |
50.892% |
22.112% |
14.218% |
6.525% |
2.089% |
|
0.340% |
|
0.324% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.287% |
|
0.287% |
|
2.391% |
23.158% |
20.479% |
22.059% |
18.848% |
10.687% |
|
2.091% |
|
2.001% |
0.090% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.035% |
|
0.035% |
|
1.670% |
7.735% |
22.726% |
22.012% |
20.993% |
17.759% |
|
7.070% |
|
6.609% |
0.461% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.534% |
5.189% |
15.627% |
20.743% |
23.035% |
20.275% |
|
14.597% |
|
13.697% |
0.900% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
0.015% |
|
0.851% |
6.402% |
16.427% |
16.686% |
19.929% |
24.197% |
|
15.493% |
|
10.773% |
4.702% |
0.018% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.493% |
3.413% |
9.170% |
19.891% |
|
67.031% |
|
51.875% |
14.789% |
0.367% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.225% |
1.304% |
5.080% |
|
93.382% |
|
14.250% |
69.046% |
8.978% |
1.108% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
|
99.996% |
|
0.471% |
6.250% |
58.984% |
34.291% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.746% |
31.653% |
64.356% |
0.245% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.245% |
99.755% |
Speculate Demolito 20191229 – Pedone 2.0 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.670% |
7.330% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.330% |
92.241% |
0.429% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.429% |
84.851% |
12.355% |
|
97.635% |
|
2.365% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
10.526% |
55.989% |
|
66.515% |
|
31.591% |
1.800% |
0.094% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.194% |
30.691% |
|
34.885% |
|
56.389% |
5.827% |
2.013% |
0.642% |
0.226% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.104% |
|
0.104% |
|
3.962% |
50.521% |
22.282% |
14.102% |
6.416% |
2.156% |
|
0.457% |
|
0.419% |
0.038% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.704% |
|
0.704% |
|
2.602% |
22.751% |
20.278% |
21.816% |
18.140% |
10.792% |
|
2.917% |
|
2.691% |
0.226% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.108% |
|
0.108% |
|
1.711% |
7.699% |
22.950% |
21.943% |
20.773% |
16.731% |
|
8.085% |
|
6.859% |
1.226% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.525% |
5.149% |
15.706% |
20.903% |
23.077% |
19.577% |
|
15.063% |
|
12.741% |
2.322% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.049% |
|
0.049% |
|
0.855% |
6.248% |
16.150% |
16.484% |
18.783% |
21.649% |
|
19.782% |
|
11.867% |
7.894% |
0.021% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.496% |
3.432% |
8.947% |
17.850% |
|
69.270% |
|
40.760% |
27.948% |
0.562% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.031% |
0.678% |
3.638% |
11.227% |
|
84.426% |
|
24.422% |
58.498% |
1.486% |
0.020% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.241% |
1.358% |
63.693% |
34.708% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.490% |
34.238% |
65.016% |
0.256% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.256% |
99.744% |
Speculate Demolito 20191229 – Pedone 2.0 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.463% |
7.537% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.537% |
92.022% |
0.433% |
0.008% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.418% |
76.343% |
19.564% |
|
96.325% |
|
3.675% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
0.023% |
20.545% |
62.283% |
|
82.851% |
|
16.951% |
0.195% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.679% |
17.868% |
|
20.547% |
|
70.550% |
5.929% |
2.018% |
0.723% |
0.212% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.735% |
51.321% |
22.139% |
14.075% |
6.477% |
1.962% |
|
0.291% |
|
0.278% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.258% |
|
0.258% |
|
2.123% |
23.153% |
20.588% |
22.279% |
19.148% |
10.486% |
|
1.965% |
|
1.906% |
0.059% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.626% |
7.870% |
22.852% |
22.161% |
21.155% |
17.599% |
|
6.737% |
|
6.388% |
0.349% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.504% |
5.133% |
15.876% |
20.618% |
23.019% |
20.407% |
|
14.443% |
|
13.785% |
0.658% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
|
0.019% |
|
0.836% |
6.396% |
16.048% |
16.705% |
20.086% |
24.518% |
|
15.392% |
|
10.206% |
5.166% |
0.020% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.476% |
3.419% |
9.259% |
20.230% |
|
66.613% |
|
51.505% |
14.717% |
0.391% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.020% |
0.644% |
4.776% |
|
94.560% |
|
15.509% |
72.718% |
5.998% |
0.335% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
|
99.999% |
|
0.423% |
4.126% |
60.566% |
34.884% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
2.194% |
33.025% |
64.473% |
0.308% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.308% |
99.692% |
Speculate Demolito 20191229 – Pedone 2.0 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.333% |
7.667% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.667% |
91.601% |
0.684% |
0.048% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.462% |
59.111% |
35.635% |
|
95.208% |
|
4.792% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
0.270% |
38.778% |
54.159% |
|
93.207% |
|
6.793% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
1.427% |
10.158% |
|
11.585% |
|
79.587% |
5.930% |
2.017% |
0.663% |
0.200% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.614% |
51.304% |
22.192% |
14.112% |
6.604% |
1.955% |
|
0.219% |
|
0.219% |
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.270% |
23.357% |
20.497% |
21.967% |
19.779% |
10.596% |
|
1.534% |
|
1.534% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.585% |
7.650% |
22.763% |
21.837% |
21.024% |
18.337% |
|
6.804% |
|
6.804% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.527% |
5.284% |
15.632% |
21.112% |
22.876% |
20.220% |
|
14.349% |
|
14.349% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.832% |
6.470% |
16.433% |
16.799% |
20.193% |
26.610% |
|
12.663% |
|
10.492% |
2.156% |
0.015% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.466% |
3.510% |
9.324% |
21.386% |
|
65.309% |
|
59.548% |
5.589% |
0.172% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.869% |
|
99.131% |
|
6.359% |
74.210% |
16.147% |
2.415% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
|
99.991% |
|
0.695% |
10.953% |
53.996% |
34.347% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
7.092% |
29.670% |
62.994% |
0.244% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.244% |
99.756% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
19.5 |
22.69 |
0.95 |
1.15 |
86 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.45 |
0.89 |
1.90 |
14 |
83 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.83 |
0.96 |
3.48 |
0 |
1 |
59 |
31 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.26 |
1.07 |
3.99 |
0 |
1 |
29 |
47 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
16.97 |
0.96 |
5.24 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
52 |
23 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.5 |
15.31 |
0.97 |
7.35 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
28 |
28 |
17 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.13 |
2.73 |
8.13 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
7 |
11 |
15 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.65 |
0.98 |
8.52 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.0 |
14.37 |
0.97 |
9.10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
13 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
15 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.97 |
9.32 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
11 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.24 |
1.04 |
9.37 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.11 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
14 |
25 |
35 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.21 |
0.96 |
12.66 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
20 |
55 |
12 |
2 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.85 |
0.93 |
14.06 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
57 |
26 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.64 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
26 |
67 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.29 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 23:47 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:49 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:51 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:53 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:55 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:57 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:59 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 07:00 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 08:02 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 09:04 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 10:06 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 11:08 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:10 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:12 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:14 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:16 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:18 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:20 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:21 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:23 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:25 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:27 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:29 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:31 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:33 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:35 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |