For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.684% |
7.316% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.316% |
92.275% |
0.409% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.409% |
86.591% |
10.757% |
|
97.757% |
|
2.243% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
8.892% |
57.478% |
|
66.370% |
|
30.166% |
3.105% |
0.346% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.108% |
30.734% |
|
34.842% |
|
56.565% |
5.786% |
1.959% |
0.607% |
0.222% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.353% |
|
0.353% |
|
5.039% |
49.248% |
22.192% |
14.169% |
6.334% |
2.178% |
|
0.487% |
|
0.463% |
0.024% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.498% |
|
0.498% |
|
2.834% |
22.626% |
20.401% |
21.912% |
18.377% |
10.527% |
|
2.825% |
|
2.593% |
0.232% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.116% |
|
0.116% |
|
1.661% |
7.687% |
22.952% |
21.986% |
20.733% |
16.860% |
|
8.005% |
|
6.783% |
1.222% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
|
0.016% |
|
0.615% |
5.195% |
15.433% |
20.928% |
22.998% |
19.642% |
|
15.173% |
|
12.744% |
2.429% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.048% |
|
0.048% |
|
0.877% |
6.350% |
16.178% |
16.340% |
18.821% |
21.509% |
|
19.877% |
|
11.941% |
7.916% |
0.020% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.503% |
3.321% |
8.825% |
17.951% |
|
69.397% |
|
40.667% |
28.099% |
0.631% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.036% |
0.724% |
3.690% |
11.314% |
|
84.236% |
|
24.558% |
58.132% |
1.524% |
0.022% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.251% |
1.449% |
63.495% |
34.805% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.497% |
34.330% |
64.900% |
0.273% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.273% |
99.727% |
Speculate Gull 20170410_256th – Texel 1.08a13 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.786% |
7.214% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.214% |
92.341% |
0.445% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.445% |
86.068% |
11.220% |
|
97.733% |
|
2.267% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
9.160% |
56.727% |
|
65.887% |
|
30.703% |
3.028% |
0.363% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.327% |
31.051% |
|
35.378% |
|
55.980% |
5.582% |
1.977% |
0.798% |
0.271% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.372% |
|
0.372% |
|
5.107% |
49.471% |
22.005% |
13.065% |
7.486% |
2.002% |
|
0.492% |
|
0.462% |
0.030% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.503% |
|
0.503% |
|
2.758% |
22.445% |
19.704% |
19.764% |
21.980% |
9.996% |
|
2.850% |
|
2.646% |
0.204% |
|
|
|
8. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
|
0.023% |
|
1.404% |
11.072% |
29.694% |
30.339% |
20.052% |
6.425% |
|
0.991% |
|
0.991% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.104% |
|
0.104% |
|
1.753% |
7.366% |
21.364% |
22.803% |
21.588% |
16.020% |
|
9.002% |
|
7.646% |
1.356% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.028% |
1.027% |
4.209% |
9.544% |
17.435% |
32.053% |
|
35.704% |
|
20.077% |
15.558% |
0.069% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.684% |
3.184% |
7.257% |
18.018% |
|
70.848% |
|
43.645% |
26.639% |
0.564% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.484% |
3.931% |
15.472% |
|
80.113% |
|
24.294% |
54.370% |
1.431% |
0.018% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.239% |
1.369% |
63.389% |
35.003% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.474% |
34.547% |
64.694% |
0.285% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.285% |
99.715% |
Speculate Gull 20170410_256th – Texel 1.08a13 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.585% |
7.415% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.415% |
92.152% |
0.433% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.433% |
86.233% |
11.083% |
|
97.749% |
|
2.251% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
9.055% |
57.109% |
|
66.164% |
|
30.555% |
3.019% |
0.257% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.279% |
30.801% |
|
35.080% |
|
56.966% |
5.403% |
1.764% |
0.588% |
0.175% |
0.024% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.362% |
|
0.362% |
|
5.135% |
51.555% |
21.824% |
12.742% |
5.617% |
2.259% |
|
0.506% |
|
0.456% |
0.050% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.513% |
|
0.513% |
|
2.781% |
24.233% |
21.135% |
21.348% |
15.482% |
11.417% |
|
3.091% |
|
2.818% |
0.273% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.116% |
|
0.116% |
|
1.735% |
8.155% |
25.373% |
20.513% |
18.016% |
17.753% |
|
8.339% |
|
6.955% |
1.384% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.114% |
2.612% |
11.427% |
22.723% |
29.536% |
21.531% |
|
12.057% |
|
11.335% |
0.722% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
|
0.016% |
|
0.463% |
5.018% |
17.634% |
17.861% |
19.439% |
22.727% |
|
16.842% |
|
10.655% |
6.187% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.525% |
3.489% |
8.395% |
13.803% |
|
73.783% |
|
43.147% |
30.074% |
0.562% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.061% |
0.731% |
3.340% |
10.486% |
|
85.382% |
|
24.391% |
59.510% |
1.464% |
0.017% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.243% |
1.333% |
63.560% |
34.864% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.467% |
34.414% |
64.866% |
0.253% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.253% |
99.747% |
Speculate Gull 20170410_256th – Texel 1.08a13 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.529% |
7.471% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.471% |
92.060% |
0.469% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.469% |
86.415% |
10.822% |
|
97.706% |
|
2.294% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
8.975% |
57.060% |
|
66.035% |
|
30.290% |
3.268% |
0.397% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.141% |
30.960% |
|
35.101% |
|
55.479% |
6.300% |
2.267% |
0.649% |
0.182% |
0.022% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.363% |
|
0.363% |
|
4.900% |
47.049% |
22.715% |
16.752% |
5.784% |
2.003% |
|
0.434% |
|
0.392% |
0.042% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.540% |
|
0.540% |
|
2.890% |
21.712% |
20.423% |
24.800% |
16.057% |
11.052% |
|
2.526% |
|
2.335% |
0.191% |
|
|
|
8. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.148% |
|
0.148% |
|
2.395% |
13.611% |
29.393% |
23.018% |
19.375% |
7.935% |
|
4.125% |
|
3.735% |
0.390% |
|
|
|
9. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.107% |
|
0.107% |
|
1.751% |
7.874% |
22.535% |
22.327% |
22.196% |
16.963% |
|
6.247% |
|
5.319% |
0.928% |
|
|
|
10. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.184% |
1.981% |
8.236% |
21.788% |
33.701% |
|
34.109% |
|
27.635% |
6.474% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.247% |
3.301% |
10.959% |
20.981% |
|
64.510% |
|
35.476% |
28.442% |
0.592% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.042% |
0.907% |
3.659% |
7.343% |
|
88.049% |
|
24.876% |
61.634% |
1.511% |
0.028% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.232% |
1.399% |
63.632% |
34.737% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.500% |
34.265% |
64.981% |
0.254% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.254% |
99.746% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
19.5 |
22.70 |
0.95 |
1.15 |
86 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.45 |
0.90 |
1.89 |
14 |
83 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.97 |
3.31 |
0 |
2 |
72 |
20 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.65 |
0.98 |
4.38 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
48 |
28 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
16.97 |
0.96 |
5.12 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
22 |
46 |
21 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.5 |
15.31 |
0.97 |
7.35 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
27 |
28 |
17 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.14 |
2.73 |
8.12 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
14 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.65 |
0.97 |
8.53 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
11 |
17 |
20 |
19 |
15 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.0 |
14.37 |
0.97 |
9.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
13 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.27 |
0.97 |
9.39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
15 |
11 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.25 |
1.04 |
9.43 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
13 |
22 |
30 |
19 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.0 |
12.79 |
0.86 |
12.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
13 |
27 |
46 |
4 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.84 |
0.93 |
14.15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
62 |
27 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.17 |
0.94 |
14.67 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
28 |
68 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.28 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 00:34 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:36 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:37 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:39 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:41 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:43 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:45 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:47 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:48 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:50 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:52 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:54 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:56 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:58 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:59 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:01 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:03 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:05 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:07 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:09 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:10 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:12 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:14 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:16 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:18 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |