For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.563% |
7.437% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.437% |
92.503% |
0.060% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.060% |
85.148% |
12.765% |
|
97.973% |
|
2.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
10.264% |
55.765% |
|
66.029% |
|
30.637% |
3.051% |
0.276% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.528% |
30.468% |
|
34.996% |
|
57.184% |
5.402% |
1.599% |
0.495% |
0.275% |
0.049% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.386% |
|
0.386% |
|
5.136% |
51.824% |
21.222% |
11.864% |
6.332% |
2.590% |
|
0.646% |
|
0.574% |
0.072% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.490% |
|
0.490% |
|
2.802% |
24.692% |
20.353% |
19.347% |
16.457% |
11.931% |
|
3.928% |
|
3.508% |
0.420% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.115% |
|
0.115% |
|
1.788% |
8.462% |
24.877% |
18.780% |
17.755% |
18.638% |
|
9.585% |
|
8.141% |
1.444% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
1.336% |
13.510% |
29.073% |
31.193% |
19.353% |
|
5.528% |
|
5.528% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
|
0.011% |
|
0.419% |
5.222% |
17.458% |
16.201% |
17.753% |
24.553% |
|
18.383% |
|
11.627% |
6.756% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.704% |
3.899% |
7.227% |
11.830% |
|
76.329% |
|
45.602% |
30.086% |
0.641% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.334% |
3.008% |
11.056% |
|
85.601% |
|
24.800% |
59.356% |
1.428% |
0.017% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.220% |
1.391% |
63.740% |
34.649% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.475% |
34.191% |
65.042% |
0.292% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.292% |
99.708% |
Speculate Texel 1.08a13 – Demolito 20191229 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.771% |
7.229% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.229% |
92.698% |
0.073% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.073% |
85.295% |
12.615% |
|
97.983% |
|
2.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
10.056% |
55.679% |
|
65.735% |
|
30.735% |
3.197% |
0.328% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.576% |
30.660% |
|
35.236% |
|
56.371% |
5.611% |
1.808% |
0.614% |
0.309% |
0.051% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.382% |
|
0.382% |
|
5.094% |
49.789% |
20.094% |
13.098% |
7.597% |
3.426% |
|
0.520% |
|
0.520% |
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.527% |
|
0.527% |
|
3.012% |
22.728% |
18.200% |
19.422% |
16.343% |
16.276% |
|
3.492% |
|
3.492% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
|
0.014% |
|
1.025% |
9.910% |
28.755% |
20.055% |
18.315% |
21.120% |
|
0.806% |
|
0.806% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.697% |
8.704% |
27.001% |
31.409% |
24.400% |
|
7.784% |
|
7.784% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.123% |
|
0.123% |
|
1.741% |
8.067% |
21.908% |
16.805% |
18.970% |
23.944% |
|
8.442% |
|
8.442% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.203% |
3.000% |
7.057% |
10.783% |
|
78.956% |
|
64.884% |
13.701% |
0.371% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
13.634% |
83.031% |
3.277% |
0.058% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.438% |
2.070% |
62.709% |
34.783% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
1.198% |
33.643% |
64.891% |
0.268% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.268% |
99.732% |
Speculate Texel 1.08a13 – Demolito 20191229 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.708% |
7.292% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.292% |
92.641% |
0.067% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.067% |
85.254% |
12.610% |
|
97.931% |
|
2.069% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
10.241% |
55.504% |
|
65.745% |
|
30.943% |
3.094% |
0.213% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.438% |
30.842% |
|
35.280% |
|
57.125% |
5.404% |
1.467% |
0.490% |
0.212% |
0.022% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.396% |
|
0.396% |
|
5.109% |
52.987% |
21.479% |
10.907% |
6.481% |
1.990% |
|
0.651% |
|
0.531% |
0.120% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.521% |
|
0.521% |
|
2.922% |
25.495% |
20.953% |
19.265% |
17.141% |
9.524% |
|
4.179% |
|
3.486% |
0.693% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.127% |
|
0.127% |
|
1.740% |
8.395% |
25.803% |
18.305% |
16.748% |
19.763% |
|
9.119% |
|
7.712% |
1.407% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
1.621% |
14.639% |
28.467% |
31.557% |
18.628% |
|
5.083% |
|
5.083% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.087% |
2.996% |
14.869% |
18.642% |
19.813% |
30.770% |
|
12.823% |
|
10.715% |
2.108% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.577% |
3.919% |
7.782% |
11.882% |
|
75.832% |
|
40.970% |
34.112% |
0.750% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.266% |
7.421% |
|
92.313% |
|
31.349% |
60.553% |
0.411% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.154% |
1.007% |
64.140% |
34.699% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.699% |
65.016% |
0.285% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.285% |
99.715% |
Speculate Texel 1.08a13 – Demolito 20191229 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.857% |
7.143% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.143% |
92.802% |
0.055% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.055% |
84.872% |
12.957% |
|
97.884% |
|
2.116% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
10.391% |
55.561% |
|
65.952% |
|
30.647% |
3.148% |
0.241% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.682% |
30.493% |
|
35.175% |
|
57.469% |
5.412% |
1.295% |
0.451% |
0.190% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.370% |
|
0.370% |
|
5.153% |
54.530% |
22.137% |
10.457% |
4.728% |
1.779% |
|
0.846% |
|
0.676% |
0.170% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.505% |
|
0.505% |
|
2.768% |
25.793% |
22.695% |
18.924% |
16.307% |
8.232% |
|
4.776% |
|
3.953% |
0.823% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.114% |
|
0.114% |
|
1.836% |
8.576% |
27.875% |
21.772% |
17.690% |
10.925% |
|
11.212% |
|
7.705% |
3.507% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
1.991% |
18.902% |
32.717% |
30.528% |
13.167% |
|
2.685% |
|
2.685% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.527% |
5.422% |
9.177% |
14.438% |
23.237% |
|
47.198% |
|
27.129% |
20.069% |
|
|
|
11. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
1.117% |
9.247% |
29.363% |
|
60.268% |
|
34.362% |
25.906% |
|
|
|
12. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
1.428% |
5.373% |
6.872% |
13.289% |
|
73.015% |
|
23.490% |
48.803% |
0.722% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.722% |
64.315% |
34.963% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.963% |
64.781% |
0.256% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.256% |
99.744% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
19.5 |
22.70 |
0.95 |
1.15 |
86 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.46 |
0.89 |
1.88 |
14 |
84 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.5 |
18.65 |
0.86 |
3.37 |
0 |
1 |
69 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.65 |
0.97 |
4.34 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
46 |
28 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
16.97 |
0.96 |
5.09 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
22 |
46 |
21 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.5 |
15.31 |
0.97 |
7.34 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
29 |
27 |
16 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.14 |
2.71 |
8.14 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.66 |
0.96 |
8.56 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
11 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
13.0 |
14.41 |
0.75 |
9.15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
13 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
14 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.0 |
14.37 |
0.97 |
9.19 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
13 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.94 |
9.43 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.34 |
0.86 |
11.33 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
21 |
33 |
21 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.0 |
12.80 |
0.86 |
12.20 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
12 |
26 |
48 |
4 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.83 |
0.93 |
14.15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
63 |
27 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
68 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.28 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 04:57 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:59 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 07:01 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 08:03 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 09:05 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 10:07 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 11:09 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:11 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:13 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:14 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:16 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:18 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:20 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:22 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:24 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:26 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:28 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:30 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:32 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:34 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:35 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |