For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.731% |
1.269% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.269% |
98.673% |
0.058% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.058% |
92.049% |
7.177% |
|
99.284% |
|
0.716% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
5.748% |
43.749% |
|
49.497% |
|
43.170% |
5.220% |
1.384% |
0.503% |
0.205% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.145% |
47.287% |
|
49.432% |
|
43.984% |
6.093% |
0.483% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.700% |
|
0.700% |
|
6.568% |
51.428% |
21.188% |
11.022% |
6.440% |
1.983% |
|
0.671% |
|
0.561% |
0.110% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.859% |
|
0.859% |
|
3.470% |
24.487% |
21.291% |
19.199% |
17.133% |
9.630% |
|
3.931% |
|
3.319% |
0.612% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.228% |
|
0.228% |
|
2.009% |
8.384% |
25.923% |
18.373% |
16.910% |
19.266% |
|
8.907% |
|
7.608% |
1.299% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
1.563% |
14.634% |
28.590% |
31.979% |
18.393% |
|
4.830% |
|
4.830% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.072% |
2.818% |
14.543% |
18.391% |
19.590% |
31.407% |
|
13.179% |
|
10.978% |
2.201% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.554% |
3.914% |
7.490% |
11.757% |
|
76.278% |
|
41.428% |
34.108% |
0.742% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.253% |
7.543% |
|
92.204% |
|
31.109% |
60.677% |
0.418% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.167% |
0.993% |
64.093% |
34.747% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.747% |
65.001% |
0.252% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.252% |
99.748% |
Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – Winter 0.7.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.784% |
1.216% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.216% |
98.732% |
0.052% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.052% |
87.161% |
11.515% |
|
98.728% |
|
1.272% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
10.899% |
57.065% |
|
67.964% |
|
31.154% |
0.882% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
1.888% |
30.982% |
|
32.870% |
|
60.213% |
6.768% |
0.149% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.138% |
|
0.138% |
|
4.512% |
56.470% |
22.627% |
9.011% |
5.506% |
1.202% |
|
0.534% |
|
0.441% |
0.093% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.300% |
|
0.300% |
|
2.849% |
29.104% |
23.517% |
16.105% |
16.197% |
8.187% |
|
3.741% |
|
3.167% |
0.574% |
|
|
|
8. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.003% |
18.948% |
30.442% |
30.818% |
14.547% |
|
3.242% |
|
3.242% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.731% |
17.700% |
21.146% |
19.354% |
26.065% |
|
13.004% |
|
10.861% |
2.143% |
|
|
|
10. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.034% |
16.137% |
18.393% |
20.181% |
26.660% |
|
16.595% |
|
13.784% |
2.811% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.922% |
4.903% |
7.460% |
14.680% |
|
72.027% |
|
37.760% |
33.542% |
0.725% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.484% |
8.659% |
|
90.857% |
|
30.580% |
59.889% |
0.388% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.165% |
0.948% |
63.822% |
35.065% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
35.065% |
64.690% |
0.245% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.245% |
99.755% |
Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – Winter 0.7.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.756% |
1.244% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.244% |
98.696% |
0.060% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.060% |
94.785% |
4.538% |
|
99.383% |
|
0.617% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.541% |
52.740% |
|
55.281% |
|
38.515% |
6.056% |
0.148% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.614% |
41.301% |
|
43.915% |
|
51.164% |
4.546% |
0.348% |
0.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.577% |
|
0.577% |
|
6.047% |
52.772% |
20.511% |
10.793% |
6.340% |
2.217% |
|
0.743% |
|
0.613% |
0.130% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.844% |
|
0.844% |
|
3.468% |
24.415% |
19.809% |
19.352% |
17.808% |
10.147% |
|
4.157% |
|
3.386% |
0.771% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.139% |
7.965% |
31.346% |
21.910% |
17.076% |
17.567% |
|
3.997% |
|
3.997% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.477% |
13.774% |
27.483% |
32.047% |
19.721% |
|
5.498% |
|
5.498% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.050% |
2.766% |
13.746% |
16.981% |
18.843% |
34.169% |
|
13.445% |
|
11.232% |
2.213% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.318% |
3.454% |
7.762% |
9.770% |
|
78.693% |
|
43.184% |
34.799% |
0.710% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.124% |
6.409% |
|
93.467% |
|
31.940% |
61.141% |
0.386% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.150% |
0.946% |
64.229% |
34.675% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.675% |
65.054% |
0.271% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.271% |
99.729% |
Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – Winter 0.7.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.722% |
1.278% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.278% |
98.668% |
0.054% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.054% |
97.609% |
2.337% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.337% |
71.172% |
|
73.509% |
|
19.880% |
5.178% |
1.384% |
0.049% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
21.953% |
|
21.953% |
|
57.111% |
13.263% |
4.992% |
1.817% |
0.758% |
0.106% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
1.667% |
|
1.667% |
|
10.679% |
40.986% |
20.180% |
14.567% |
7.841% |
3.182% |
|
0.898% |
|
0.741% |
0.157% |
|
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
1.007% |
|
1.007% |
|
7.397% |
19.734% |
37.005% |
15.777% |
10.646% |
8.434% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
1.864% |
|
1.864% |
|
4.669% |
16.862% |
17.968% |
24.342% |
18.296% |
11.908% |
|
4.091% |
|
3.364% |
0.727% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.027% |
1.053% |
8.686% |
25.590% |
33.327% |
23.868% |
|
7.449% |
|
7.449% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.237% |
2.924% |
9.748% |
15.378% |
21.700% |
37.121% |
|
12.892% |
|
10.719% |
2.173% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.037% |
2.480% |
7.334% |
8.987% |
|
81.162% |
|
45.596% |
34.801% |
0.765% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.098% |
6.394% |
|
93.508% |
|
31.966% |
61.141% |
0.401% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.165% |
1.001% |
64.486% |
34.348% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.348% |
65.380% |
0.272% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.272% |
99.728% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
20.5 |
23.15 |
0.83 |
1.06 |
94 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.44 |
0.90 |
1.97 |
5 |
92 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.5 |
18.64 |
0.87 |
3.27 |
0 |
1 |
77 |
18 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.21 |
0.87 |
4.66 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
41 |
35 |
13 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
16.96 |
0.96 |
4.97 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
29 |
40 |
19 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.5 |
15.30 |
0.97 |
7.30 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
28 |
27 |
16 |
10 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.16 |
2.72 |
8.06 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
13 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.67 |
0.96 |
8.49 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
11 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
13.0 |
14.41 |
0.75 |
9.12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
13 |
20 |
22 |
19 |
13 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.0 |
14.39 |
0.96 |
9.14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
14 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
12.5 |
14.21 |
0.84 |
9.54 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
10 |
15 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.35 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
21 |
32 |
22 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.5 |
12.85 |
0.75 |
12.25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
12 |
29 |
49 |
3 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.84 |
0.93 |
14.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
64 |
27 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
28 |
68 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.28 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 07:18 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 08:20 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 09:22 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 10:24 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 11:26 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:28 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:30 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:32 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:34 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:36 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:38 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:40 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:42 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:44 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:46 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:48 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:50 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:51 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:53 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |