For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.696% |
1.304% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.304% |
98.652% |
0.044% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.044% |
94.836% |
4.536% |
|
99.416% |
|
0.584% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.467% |
52.718% |
|
55.185% |
|
38.547% |
6.113% |
0.155% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.653% |
41.371% |
|
44.024% |
|
50.988% |
4.631% |
0.324% |
0.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.576% |
|
0.576% |
|
6.085% |
52.848% |
20.499% |
10.671% |
6.356% |
2.237% |
|
0.728% |
|
0.592% |
0.136% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.799% |
|
0.799% |
|
3.592% |
24.349% |
20.033% |
19.211% |
17.769% |
10.133% |
|
4.114% |
|
3.411% |
0.703% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.144% |
7.867% |
31.238% |
21.963% |
16.961% |
17.681% |
|
4.146% |
|
4.146% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.439% |
13.828% |
27.560% |
32.112% |
19.543% |
|
5.518% |
|
5.518% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.060% |
2.751% |
13.640% |
17.128% |
18.809% |
34.355% |
|
13.257% |
|
11.121% |
2.136% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.283% |
3.434% |
7.904% |
9.777% |
|
78.600% |
|
42.879% |
35.003% |
0.718% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.089% |
6.274% |
|
93.637% |
|
32.188% |
61.083% |
0.366% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.145% |
0.939% |
64.574% |
34.342% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.342% |
65.378% |
0.280% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.280% |
99.720% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.27 – PeSTO 2.210 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.724% |
1.276% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.276% |
98.670% |
0.054% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.054% |
94.889% |
4.504% |
|
99.447% |
|
0.553% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.384% |
52.736% |
|
55.120% |
|
37.594% |
7.286% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.673% |
41.394% |
|
44.067% |
|
49.922% |
5.691% |
0.269% |
0.051% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
1.366% |
|
1.366% |
|
11.808% |
77.259% |
7.182% |
2.065% |
0.314% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.042% |
3.900% |
41.500% |
20.394% |
15.941% |
14.696% |
|
3.527% |
|
3.527% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.977% |
15.161% |
32.502% |
29.842% |
17.064% |
|
4.454% |
|
4.454% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.027% |
3.042% |
18.308% |
24.637% |
26.755% |
18.165% |
|
9.066% |
|
7.518% |
1.548% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.054% |
1.845% |
17.224% |
15.926% |
19.423% |
32.206% |
|
13.322% |
|
11.179% |
2.143% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.356% |
4.425% |
7.725% |
9.869% |
|
77.625% |
|
42.361% |
34.492% |
0.772% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.994% |
|
92.006% |
|
30.815% |
60.809% |
0.382% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.146% |
1.008% |
64.131% |
34.715% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.715% |
65.030% |
0.255% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.255% |
99.745% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.27 – PeSTO 2.210 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.714% |
1.286% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.286% |
98.644% |
0.070% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.070% |
94.858% |
4.466% |
|
99.394% |
|
0.606% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.469% |
53.390% |
|
55.859% |
|
40.081% |
3.494% |
0.566% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.603% |
41.516% |
|
44.119% |
|
52.674% |
2.608% |
0.547% |
0.052% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.811% |
53.176% |
26.156% |
10.575% |
5.923% |
1.359% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.628% |
|
0.628% |
|
3.573% |
25.286% |
24.405% |
20.976% |
17.955% |
6.863% |
|
0.314% |
|
0.314% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.139% |
10.082% |
25.671% |
23.537% |
17.007% |
19.084% |
|
4.480% |
|
4.480% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.696% |
11.612% |
24.754% |
34.470% |
21.297% |
|
6.171% |
|
6.171% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.116% |
3.645% |
10.720% |
17.336% |
17.408% |
37.275% |
|
13.500% |
|
11.328% |
2.172% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.323% |
2.770% |
7.237% |
9.483% |
|
80.174% |
|
44.454% |
34.987% |
0.733% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.639% |
|
95.361% |
|
33.099% |
61.874% |
0.388% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.154% |
0.967% |
63.983% |
34.896% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.896% |
64.857% |
0.247% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.247% |
99.753% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.27 – PeSTO 2.210 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.736% |
1.264% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.264% |
98.676% |
0.060% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.060% |
94.975% |
4.410% |
|
99.445% |
|
0.555% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.376% |
52.120% |
|
54.496% |
|
39.080% |
6.424% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.589% |
41.089% |
|
43.678% |
|
51.167% |
4.831% |
0.324% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
2.381% |
|
2.381% |
|
8.864% |
56.703% |
18.447% |
9.548% |
3.638% |
0.419% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.700% |
36.215% |
24.744% |
16.390% |
6.282% |
|
2.669% |
|
2.217% |
0.452% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.334% |
12.836% |
20.135% |
22.846% |
18.299% |
21.177% |
|
4.373% |
|
4.373% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.942% |
13.432% |
22.472% |
34.036% |
21.797% |
|
6.321% |
|
6.321% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.564% |
11.283% |
17.903% |
19.065% |
34.974% |
|
13.211% |
|
10.988% |
2.223% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.164% |
2.487% |
8.217% |
9.943% |
|
79.189% |
|
43.528% |
34.914% |
0.747% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.355% |
5.408% |
|
94.237% |
|
32.407% |
61.409% |
0.421% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.166% |
1.002% |
64.672% |
34.160% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.160% |
65.563% |
0.277% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.277% |
99.723% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
20.5 |
23.16 |
0.83 |
1.06 |
94 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.45 |
0.90 |
1.97 |
6 |
92 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.5 |
18.64 |
0.87 |
3.24 |
0 |
1 |
79 |
17 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.20 |
0.87 |
4.61 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
44 |
33 |
12 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.5 |
16.85 |
0.86 |
5.02 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
43 |
20 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.5 |
15.31 |
0.97 |
7.31 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
28 |
27 |
15 |
10 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.11 |
2.70 |
8.12 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
13 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.67 |
0.96 |
8.51 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
11 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.5 |
14.50 |
0.86 |
8.94 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
16 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
13.0 |
14.42 |
0.75 |
9.14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
13 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
13 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
12.5 |
14.21 |
0.83 |
9.57 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
10 |
15 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
20 |
33 |
22 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.5 |
12.85 |
0.74 |
12.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
12 |
30 |
49 |
3 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.85 |
0.93 |
14.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
64 |
27 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.17 |
0.94 |
14.68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
28 |
68 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.28 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 08:31 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 09:33 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 10:35 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 11:37 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:39 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:41 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:43 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:46 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:48 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:50 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:52 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:54 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:56 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:58 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 23:00 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-25 00:02 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 01:04 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 02:06 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |