For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.053% |
1.947% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.947% |
98.053% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
94.745% |
4.629% |
|
99.374% |
|
0.626% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.587% |
53.185% |
|
55.772% |
|
40.174% |
3.488% |
0.566% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.668% |
41.547% |
|
44.215% |
|
52.727% |
2.459% |
0.558% |
0.041% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.733% |
53.823% |
25.676% |
10.493% |
5.822% |
1.453% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.639% |
|
0.639% |
|
3.529% |
25.189% |
24.340% |
20.946% |
18.072% |
6.932% |
|
0.353% |
|
0.353% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.121% |
9.910% |
25.929% |
23.548% |
16.654% |
19.268% |
|
4.570% |
|
4.570% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.637% |
11.755% |
24.682% |
34.294% |
21.322% |
|
6.310% |
|
6.310% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.090% |
3.482% |
10.845% |
17.391% |
17.782% |
36.837% |
|
13.573% |
|
11.332% |
2.241% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
0.331% |
2.899% |
7.376% |
9.664% |
|
79.718% |
|
44.326% |
35.392% |
|
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.524% |
|
95.476% |
|
33.109% |
62.367% |
|
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
61.755% |
38.245% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
38.245% |
61.755% |
|
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.1 – Minic 1.32 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.088% |
1.912% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.912% |
98.088% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
94.854% |
4.549% |
|
99.403% |
|
0.597% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.488% |
53.201% |
|
55.689% |
|
40.309% |
3.412% |
0.590% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.658% |
41.598% |
|
44.256% |
|
52.695% |
2.466% |
0.533% |
0.050% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.717% |
53.614% |
26.139% |
10.924% |
5.439% |
1.167% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.652% |
|
0.652% |
|
3.479% |
25.435% |
24.367% |
22.089% |
17.182% |
6.796% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.097% |
9.860% |
25.876% |
24.537% |
17.423% |
22.207% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.718% |
11.889% |
25.092% |
41.047% |
20.254% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.106% |
3.495% |
10.606% |
17.308% |
18.909% |
42.620% |
|
6.956% |
|
6.956% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.956% |
|
93.044% |
|
55.778% |
37.266% |
|
|
|
12. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
37.266% |
62.734% |
|
|
|
13. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
62.139% |
37.861% |
|
14. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
37.861% |
62.139% |
|
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.1 – Minic 1.32 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
97.979% |
2.021% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
2.021% |
97.979% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
94.954% |
4.417% |
|
99.371% |
|
0.629% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.401% |
53.248% |
|
55.649% |
|
40.421% |
3.381% |
0.549% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.645% |
41.702% |
|
44.347% |
|
52.553% |
2.488% |
0.560% |
0.052% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.744% |
53.346% |
26.022% |
11.180% |
5.536% |
1.172% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.633% |
|
0.633% |
|
3.439% |
25.415% |
24.696% |
22.355% |
16.795% |
6.667% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.122% |
10.046% |
26.123% |
24.327% |
17.455% |
16.810% |
|
5.117% |
|
5.117% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.698% |
11.497% |
24.775% |
40.873% |
21.157% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.092% |
3.626% |
10.553% |
17.311% |
19.341% |
36.225% |
|
12.852% |
|
10.318% |
2.534% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.739% |
|
86.261% |
|
58.216% |
28.045% |
|
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.230% |
|
95.770% |
|
26.349% |
69.421% |
|
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
62.617% |
37.383% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
37.383% |
62.617% |
|
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.1 – Minic 1.32 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.051% |
1.949% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.949% |
98.051% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
94.698% |
4.705% |
|
99.403% |
|
0.597% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.524% |
52.979% |
|
55.503% |
|
40.314% |
3.637% |
0.546% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.778% |
41.680% |
|
44.458% |
|
52.479% |
2.438% |
0.578% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.763% |
53.478% |
26.000% |
9.485% |
6.454% |
1.820% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.636% |
|
0.636% |
|
3.631% |
25.322% |
24.179% |
17.956% |
19.838% |
7.458% |
|
0.980% |
|
0.980% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.110% |
9.861% |
25.524% |
22.218% |
16.077% |
17.270% |
|
8.940% |
|
8.940% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.674% |
11.358% |
24.796% |
21.205% |
22.587% |
|
18.380% |
|
18.380% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.106% |
3.552% |
10.823% |
17.274% |
15.097% |
31.519% |
|
21.629% |
|
17.269% |
4.360% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.038% |
0.992% |
8.224% |
21.329% |
16.914% |
|
52.503% |
|
41.821% |
10.682% |
|
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.432% |
|
97.568% |
|
12.610% |
84.958% |
|
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
88.104% |
11.896% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
11.896% |
88.104% |
|
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
20.5 |
23.16 |
0.83 |
1.08 |
92 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
19.0 |
21.71 |
0.81 |
1.94 |
8 |
91 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.5 |
18.64 |
0.87 |
3.25 |
0 |
0 |
79 |
17 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.20 |
0.87 |
4.59 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
44 |
34 |
12 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.5 |
16.85 |
0.86 |
5.00 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
44 |
20 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
13.0 |
15.22 |
0.86 |
7.39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
27 |
29 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.16 |
2.71 |
8.05 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
14 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
11 |
3 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
13.0 |
14.75 |
0.86 |
8.35 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
12 |
19 |
21 |
18 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.5 |
14.49 |
0.86 |
8.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
15 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
13.0 |
14.41 |
0.75 |
9.20 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
20 |
15 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
12.5 |
14.21 |
0.83 |
9.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
20 |
21 |
11 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.34 |
0.86 |
11.39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
20 |
34 |
23 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.5 |
12.85 |
0.74 |
12.29 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
12 |
30 |
52 |
1 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.58 |
0.84 |
14.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
64 |
30 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.5 |
10.07 |
0.83 |
14.65 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
31 |
66 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
6.0 |
7.36 |
0.82 |
15.99 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 11:18 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:20 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:22 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:24 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:26 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:28 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:30 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:32 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:34 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:36 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:38 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:39 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:41 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:43 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:45 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |