For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
85.670% |
12.977% |
1.344% |
0.009% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.573% |
79.838% |
5.745% |
0.817% |
|
99.973% |
|
0.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.755% |
6.397% |
78.624% |
11.022% |
|
96.798% |
|
2.570% |
0.543% |
0.089% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.773% |
9.450% |
50.889% |
|
61.114% |
|
23.152% |
11.932% |
3.551% |
0.251% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.012% |
2.375% |
17.631% |
|
20.018% |
|
35.338% |
33.325% |
10.255% |
1.015% |
0.048% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
2.228% |
17.601% |
|
19.832% |
|
31.466% |
32.408% |
12.835% |
3.307% |
0.151% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.233% |
1.819% |
|
2.052% |
|
5.354% |
12.846% |
39.090% |
29.403% |
9.397% |
1.838% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.212% |
|
0.213% |
|
2.092% |
8.787% |
29.225% |
41.840% |
13.565% |
4.180% |
0.098% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.145% |
4.314% |
17.869% |
53.586% |
20.652% |
3.411% |
0.022% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.636% |
6.126% |
20.994% |
63.970% |
8.205% |
0.055% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.189% |
2.256% |
9.266% |
80.831% |
7.453% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.092% |
7.435% |
92.436% |
|
0.034% |
|
0.034% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
|
99.984% |
|
67.130% |
29.244% |
3.610% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
|
99.982% |
|
31.510% |
63.679% |
4.793% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.326% |
7.077% |
91.493% |
0.104% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.104% |
99.896% |
Speculate KomodoMCTS 2484.00 – RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
85.261% |
12.398% |
2.337% |
0.004% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.275% |
76.620% |
9.037% |
1.032% |
|
99.964% |
|
0.036% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
1.463% |
10.436% |
82.259% |
5.210% |
|
99.368% |
|
0.592% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.538% |
4.660% |
56.162% |
|
61.361% |
|
24.325% |
11.951% |
2.223% |
0.140% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.006% |
0.905% |
18.878% |
|
19.789% |
|
37.682% |
35.076% |
6.778% |
0.651% |
0.022% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.002% |
0.802% |
18.160% |
|
18.964% |
|
33.103% |
34.952% |
10.723% |
2.147% |
0.108% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.180% |
|
0.180% |
|
2.169% |
9.896% |
36.159% |
34.971% |
12.674% |
3.889% |
0.062% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.374% |
|
0.374% |
|
2.089% |
7.880% |
37.134% |
35.416% |
13.832% |
3.228% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.189% |
6.013% |
19.844% |
49.878% |
20.523% |
3.529% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.967% |
6.592% |
21.144% |
62.800% |
8.423% |
0.058% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.239% |
2.341% |
9.434% |
80.402% |
7.581% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.121% |
7.537% |
92.306% |
|
0.035% |
|
0.035% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
|
99.979% |
|
67.292% |
29.139% |
3.548% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
|
99.986% |
|
31.391% |
63.861% |
4.734% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.282% |
7.000% |
91.618% |
0.100% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.100% |
99.900% |
Speculate KomodoMCTS 2484.00 – RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.320% |
12.900% |
0.779% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.419% |
82.177% |
3.673% |
0.696% |
|
99.965% |
|
0.035% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.259% |
4.085% |
80.373% |
12.431% |
|
97.148% |
|
2.492% |
0.354% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.821% |
10.199% |
50.029% |
|
61.051% |
|
23.193% |
11.731% |
3.762% |
0.263% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.016% |
2.761% |
17.744% |
|
20.521% |
|
35.679% |
32.820% |
9.893% |
1.042% |
0.044% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
2.201% |
17.323% |
|
19.525% |
|
31.449% |
32.447% |
12.813% |
3.628% |
0.133% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.014% |
1.567% |
|
1.581% |
|
4.988% |
13.479% |
42.402% |
29.161% |
7.429% |
0.957% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.209% |
|
0.209% |
|
2.162% |
8.999% |
27.169% |
43.055% |
14.113% |
4.223% |
0.070% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.160% |
3.507% |
16.841% |
55.346% |
20.691% |
3.432% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.447% |
5.837% |
20.685% |
64.631% |
8.338% |
0.052% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.173% |
2.246% |
9.404% |
80.665% |
7.511% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.088% |
7.492% |
92.380% |
|
0.036% |
|
0.036% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
|
99.981% |
|
67.179% |
29.227% |
3.575% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
|
99.983% |
|
31.424% |
63.730% |
4.829% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.361% |
7.043% |
91.481% |
0.115% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.115% |
99.885% |
Speculate KomodoMCTS 2484.00 – RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.499% |
13.315% |
0.185% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.468% |
84.263% |
1.821% |
0.423% |
|
99.975% |
|
0.025% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.031% |
1.328% |
70.904% |
19.673% |
|
91.936% |
|
6.098% |
1.687% |
0.276% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
1.073% |
16.999% |
42.582% |
|
60.656% |
|
21.422% |
11.596% |
5.889% |
0.437% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.019% |
4.641% |
16.356% |
|
21.016% |
|
31.066% |
29.947% |
16.302% |
1.603% |
0.065% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.002% |
4.558% |
15.834% |
|
20.394% |
|
28.434% |
28.711% |
17.157% |
5.088% |
0.207% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.883% |
4.913% |
|
5.796% |
|
10.939% |
20.558% |
38.583% |
20.462% |
3.443% |
0.219% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.218% |
|
0.227% |
|
2.015% |
7.409% |
19.664% |
51.384% |
14.804% |
4.410% |
0.087% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.088% |
1.946% |
15.219% |
58.078% |
21.173% |
3.467% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.183% |
5.680% |
21.028% |
64.571% |
8.466% |
0.068% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.124% |
2.374% |
9.513% |
80.342% |
7.647% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.104% |
7.638% |
92.227% |
|
0.030% |
|
0.030% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
99.985% |
|
67.516% |
29.081% |
3.388% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
99.985% |
|
31.167% |
63.831% |
4.987% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.287% |
7.088% |
91.528% |
0.097% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.097% |
99.903% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.0 |
39.43 |
0.83 |
1.16 |
85 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.36 |
0.84 |
1.91 |
15 |
79 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
33.5 |
36.63 |
0.93 |
3.08 |
0 |
6 |
82 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.22 |
0.85 |
4.28 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
62 |
18 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.30 |
0.84 |
5.32 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
15 |
45 |
31 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.0 |
34.06 |
0.85 |
5.62 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
30 |
42 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
30.5 |
32.77 |
0.96 |
7.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
13 |
46 |
26 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.77 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
27 |
48 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.30 |
0.85 |
8.86 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
20 |
60 |
14 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.19 |
0.86 |
9.90 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
74 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.69 |
0.95 |
10.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
85 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
24.5 |
26.62 |
0.94 |
11.96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.0 |
22.28 |
0.95 |
13.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
63 |
35 |
2 |
14 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
19.5 |
21.79 |
0.95 |
13.69 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
59 |
5 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.0 |
19.65 |
0.85 |
14.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
94 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.82 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 15:02 |
447 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-26 16:29 |
448 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-26 17:55 |
449 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-26 19:22 |
450 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-02-26 20:49 |
451 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-26 22:15 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:42 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:09 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:35 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:02 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:28 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 06:55 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:22 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 09:48 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:15 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:42 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:08 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:35 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:02 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:28 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 19:55 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:22 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 22:48 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:15 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:41 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:08 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:35 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:01 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:28 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 08:55 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:21 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 11:48 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:15 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:41 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |