For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
82.148% |
17.852% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
17.852% |
82.148% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
85.517% |
11.292% |
|
96.809% |
|
3.056% |
0.135% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.020% |
45.298% |
|
53.318% |
|
36.688% |
9.601% |
0.393% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.455% |
42.437% |
|
48.892% |
|
47.068% |
3.407% |
0.633% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.660% |
|
0.668% |
|
11.128% |
62.117% |
20.645% |
5.442% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.313% |
|
0.313% |
|
2.060% |
11.390% |
49.444% |
36.793% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.350% |
28.885% |
51.590% |
5.500% |
0.675% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.013% |
64.379% |
31.608% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.162% |
30.121% |
67.717% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
68.170% |
31.830% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31.830% |
68.170% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.880% |
49.120% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.120% |
49.907% |
0.973% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.973% |
99.027% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate KomodoMCTS 2484.00 – Pedone 20200125 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
82.037% |
17.963% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
17.963% |
82.037% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
95.926% |
3.689% |
|
99.615% |
|
0.385% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
2.744% |
49.231% |
|
51.975% |
|
38.114% |
9.491% |
0.420% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
1.330% |
46.171% |
|
47.501% |
|
48.455% |
3.435% |
0.609% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
|
0.595% |
|
0.595% |
|
10.945% |
62.431% |
20.485% |
5.544% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.314% |
|
0.314% |
|
2.101% |
11.309% |
49.472% |
36.804% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.334% |
29.014% |
51.520% |
5.492% |
0.640% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.007% |
64.791% |
31.202% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.125% |
29.717% |
68.158% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
82.231% |
17.769% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17.769% |
82.231% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.714% |
49.286% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.286% |
49.716% |
0.998% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.998% |
99.002% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate KomodoMCTS 2484.00 – Pedone 20200125 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
82.113% |
17.887% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
17.887% |
82.113% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
81.642% |
15.207% |
|
96.849% |
|
3.151% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
9.477% |
43.586% |
|
53.063% |
|
36.754% |
9.758% |
0.425% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
8.881% |
40.277% |
|
49.158% |
|
46.781% |
3.363% |
0.698% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
|
0.603% |
|
0.603% |
|
11.267% |
62.108% |
20.331% |
5.691% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.327% |
|
0.327% |
|
2.047% |
11.469% |
49.568% |
36.589% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.302% |
28.978% |
51.618% |
5.465% |
0.637% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.998% |
64.126% |
31.876% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.104% |
30.409% |
67.487% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
63.242% |
36.758% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36.758% |
63.242% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.352% |
49.648% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.648% |
49.434% |
0.918% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.918% |
99.082% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate KomodoMCTS 2484.00 – Pedone 20200125 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
81.903% |
18.097% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
18.097% |
81.903% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
63.714% |
26.142% |
|
89.856% |
|
9.585% |
0.559% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
19.897% |
36.776% |
|
56.673% |
|
33.415% |
9.537% |
0.375% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
16.362% |
35.823% |
|
52.185% |
|
43.648% |
3.490% |
0.677% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.027% |
0.931% |
|
0.958% |
|
11.196% |
61.829% |
20.304% |
5.713% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.328% |
|
0.328% |
|
2.156% |
11.230% |
49.661% |
36.625% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.355% |
28.983% |
51.494% |
5.546% |
0.622% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.952% |
64.167% |
31.881% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.216% |
30.287% |
67.497% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
61.307% |
38.693% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
38.693% |
61.307% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.366% |
49.634% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.634% |
49.403% |
0.963% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.963% |
99.037% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
38.0 |
39.27 |
0.58 |
1.22 |
78 |
22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
37.5 |
38.75 |
0.57 |
1.78 |
22 |
78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.49 |
0.70 |
3.09 |
0 |
0 |
93 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
34.0 |
35.17 |
0.59 |
4.36 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
56 |
37 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
34.0 |
35.00 |
0.61 |
4.60 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
38 |
57 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.5 |
33.69 |
0.59 |
6.19 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
74 |
19 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
32.0 |
32.98 |
0.61 |
7.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
58 |
28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
31.5 |
32.40 |
0.60 |
7.67 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
24 |
65 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
30.0 |
31.23 |
0.59 |
9.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
77 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
29.5 |
30.57 |
0.60 |
9.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.5 |
28.28 |
0.59 |
11.19 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
81 |
19 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.40 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
40 |
0 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.72 |
13.60 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
60 |
0 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.34 |
0.60 |
15.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
15.67 |
0.57 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.45h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 16:12 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:39 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 19:06 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:32 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:59 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:26 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:53 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 02:19 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:46 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 05:13 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:39 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 08:06 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:33 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 11:00 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:26 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:53 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 15:20 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |