May 15 2020
Off

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Booot 6.4 63.943% 27.872% 91.815% 8.185%
2. Pedone 20200510 27.826% 53.653% 81.479% 18.494% 0.027%
3. Winter 0.7.5 8.231% 18.472% 26.703% 73.236% 0.061%
4. Chiron TCEC16 0.002% 0.002% 0.063% 68.014% 19.085% 7.675% 3.888% 1.260% 0.013% 0.013%
5. Wasp 3.90 0.001% 0.001% 0.021% 10.997% 39.659% 34.194% 12.127% 2.528% 0.473% 0.464% 0.009%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.001% 14.365% 29.629% 32.418% 19.112% 4.361% 0.114% 0.114%
7. Demolito 20200426 5.779% 9.221% 19.265% 43.984% 19.730% 2.021% 1.916% 0.105%
8. ChessBrainVB 3.74 0.756% 2.396% 6.131% 19.091% 58.612% 13.014% 12.693% 0.321%
9. Nemorino 5.38 0.001% 0.010% 0.315% 1.787% 13.332% 84.555% 81.337% 3.218%
10. Gogobello 2.2 0.002% 0.011% 0.177% 99.810% 3.463% 96.347%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 52.191%
2. Pedone 20200510 Booot 6.4 21.103%
3. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 11.749%
4. Winter 0.7.5 Booot 6.4 6.769%
5. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 6.723%
6. Winter 0.7.5 Pedone 20200510 1.462%
7. Booot 6.4 Chiron TCEC16 0.002%
8. Booot 6.4 Wasp 3.90 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 73.294%
2. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 18.518%
3. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 8.185%
4. Booot 6.4 Chiron TCEC16 0.002%
5. Booot 6.4 Wasp 3.90 0.001%

Speculate Pedone 20200510 – Winter 0.7.5 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Pedone 20200510 54.366% 45.075% 99.441% 0.559%
2. Booot 6.4 45.343% 48.767% 94.110% 5.889% 0.001%
3. Winter 0.7.5 0.291% 6.158% 6.449% 93.349% 0.202%
4. Chiron TCEC16 0.127% 67.403% 19.197% 7.956% 4.040% 1.263% 0.014% 0.014%
5. Wasp 3.90 0.073% 11.142% 39.498% 34.142% 12.104% 2.553% 0.488% 0.474% 0.014%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.003% 14.701% 29.770% 32.003% 19.016% 4.392% 0.115% 0.115%
7. Demolito 20200426 5.860% 9.102% 19.468% 43.706% 19.753% 2.111% 2.000% 0.111%
8. ChessBrainVB 3.74 0.691% 2.403% 6.083% 19.250% 57.961% 13.612% 13.259% 0.353%
9. Nemorino 5.38 0.030% 0.348% 1.872% 13.901% 83.849% 80.652% 3.197%
10. Gogobello 2.2 0.012% 0.177% 99.811% 3.486% 96.325%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Pedone 20200510 Booot 6.4 48.592%
2. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 44.959%
3. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 5.774%
4. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 0.384%
5. Winter 0.7.5 Booot 6.4 0.175%
6. Winter 0.7.5 Pedone 20200510 0.116%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 93.551%
2. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 5.890%
3. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 0.559%

Speculate Pedone 20200510 – Winter 0.7.5 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Booot 6.4 68.663% 23.039% 91.702% 8.298%
2. Pedone 20200510 24.655% 60.174% 84.829% 15.144% 0.027%
3. Winter 0.7.5 6.682% 16.783% 23.465% 76.512% 0.023%
4. Chiron TCEC16 0.004% 0.004% 0.037% 68.175% 18.849% 7.823% 3.891% 1.210% 0.011% 0.011%
5. Wasp 3.90 0.009% 10.908% 39.715% 34.008% 12.291% 2.584% 0.485% 0.469% 0.016%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 14.292% 29.793% 32.492% 18.972% 4.310% 0.141% 0.141%
7. Demolito 20200426 5.825% 9.117% 19.180% 43.643% 20.094% 2.141% 2.017% 0.124%
8. ChessBrainVB 3.74 0.748% 2.499% 6.170% 19.382% 58.466% 12.735% 12.392% 0.343%
9. Nemorino 5.38 0.002% 0.027% 0.327% 1.802% 13.196% 84.646% 81.516% 3.130%
10. Gogobello 2.2 0.019% 0.140% 99.841% 3.454% 96.387%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 59.089%
2. Pedone 20200510 Booot 6.4 17.442%
3. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 9.570%
4. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 7.213%
5. Winter 0.7.5 Booot 6.4 5.597%
6. Winter 0.7.5 Pedone 20200510 1.085%
7. Booot 6.4 Chiron TCEC16 0.004%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 76.531%
2. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 15.167%
3. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 8.298%
4. Booot 6.4 Chiron TCEC16 0.004%

Speculate Pedone 20200510 – Winter 0.7.5 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Booot 6.4 58.777% 31.049% 89.826% 10.174%
2. Winter 0.7.5 35.203% 55.199% 90.402% 9.597% 0.001%
3. Pedone 20200510 6.020% 13.750% 19.770% 80.030% 0.200%
4. Chiron TCEC16 0.002% 0.002% 0.182% 68.572% 18.914% 7.508% 3.696% 1.114% 0.012% 0.012%
5. Wasp 3.90 0.014% 10.711% 39.864% 34.104% 12.243% 2.579% 0.485% 0.474% 0.011%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.002% 14.260% 29.784% 32.411% 19.003% 4.425% 0.115% 0.115%
7. Demolito 20200426 5.561% 8.998% 19.393% 43.887% 20.107% 2.054% 1.965% 0.089%
8. ChessBrainVB 3.74 0.001% 0.695% 2.414% 6.286% 19.416% 58.903% 12.285% 11.983% 0.302%
9. Nemorino 5.38 0.026% 0.298% 1.747% 12.734% 85.195% 81.925% 3.270%
10. Gogobello 2.2 0.008% 0.138% 99.854% 3.526% 96.328%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 51.855%
2. Winter 0.7.5 Booot 6.4 28.373%
3. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 6.920%
4. Winter 0.7.5 Pedone 20200510 6.830%
5. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 3.344%
6. Pedone 20200510 Booot 6.4 2.676%
7. Booot 6.4 Chiron TCEC16 0.002%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 80.228%
2. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 10.174%
3. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 9.596%
4. Booot 6.4 Chiron TCEC16 0.002%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Booot 6.4 10.0 12.93 0.99 1.61 54 30 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Pedone 20200420/20200510 9.5 12.44 1.00 2.00 31 39 29 1 0 0 0 0 0
3 Winter 0.7.4/0.7.5 9.0 11.92 0.99 2.42 15 30 53 2 0 0 0 0 0
4 Chiron TCEC16 6.5 9.05 0.95 4.95 0 0 2 44 28 15 8 3 0
5 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 6.0 8.65 0.95 5.48 0 0 1 28 27 21 15 7 1
6 Wasp 3.90 6.0 8.37 1.02 5.92 0 0 1 16 24 26 19 10 4
7 Demolito 20200426 5.5 7.80 0.97 6.76 0 0 0 7 13 20 27 24 8
8 ChessBrainVB 3.74 5.0 7.32 0.97 7.48 0 0 0 3 7 13 22 31 23
9 Nemorino 5.38 5.0 6.57 0.85 8.49 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 24 56
10 Gogobello 2.2 3.5 4.95 0.84 9.89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.04h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-15 21:42 68 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Wasp 3.90
2020-05-15 22:44 69 Demolito 20200426 Booot 6.4
2020-05-15 23:47 70 Chiron TCEC16 ChessBrainVB 3.74
2020-05-16 00:49 71 Chiron TCEC16 Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-16 01:51 72 ChessBrainVB 3.74 Demolito 20200426
2020-05-16 02:53 73 Booot 6.4 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-05-16 03:56 74 Wasp 3.90 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-16 04:58 75 Winter 0.7.5 Nemorino 5.38
2020-05-16 06:00 76 Gogobello 2.2 Winter 0.7.5
2020-05-16 07:03 77 Nemorino 5.38 Wasp 3.90
2020-05-16 08:05 78 Pedone 20200510 Booot 6.4
2020-05-16 09:07 79 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 ChessBrainVB 3.74
2020-05-16 10:09 80 Demolito 20200426 Chiron TCEC16
2020-05-16 11:12 81 Demolito 20200426 Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-16 12:14 82 Chiron TCEC16 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-05-16 13:16 83 ChessBrainVB 3.74 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-16 14:19 84 Booot 6.4 Nemorino 5.38
2020-05-16 15:21 85 Wasp 3.90 Winter 0.7.5
2020-05-16 16:23 86 Gogobello 2.2 Wasp 3.90
2020-05-16 17:25 87 Winter 0.7.5 Booot 6.4
2020-05-16 18:28 88 Nemorino 5.38 ChessBrainVB 3.74
2020-05-16 19:30 89 Pedone 20200510 Chiron TCEC16
2020-05-16 20:32 90 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Demolito 20200426
Posted inBayesElo